incorporated severity
@@ -33,6 +33,7 @@ class Person(sc.prettyobj):
self.exposed = False
self.infectious = False
self.symptomatic = False
+ self.severe = False
self.diagnosed = False
self.recovered = False
self.dead = False
@@ -80,8 +81,8 @@ class Person(sc.prettyobj):
if sym_bool: # They develop symptoms
self.date_symptomatic = t + cvu.sample(**self.dist_incub) # Date they become symptomatic
-
- sev_bool = cvu.bt(self.severe_prob) # Not used yet, but use this to determine if they get treated
+ self.severe = cvu.bt(self.severe_prob) # See if they're a severe or mild case
+ if self.severe: # TODO: incorporate health system
death_bool = cvu.bt(self.death_prob)
if death_bool: # They die
self.date_died = t + cvu.sample(**self.dist_death) # Date of death
@@ -241,7 +242,7 @@ def set_prognosis(age=None, default_symp_prob=0.7, default_severe_prob=0.2, defa
# Overall probabilities of symptoms, severe symptoms, and death
age_cutoffs = [10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 100]
symp_probs = [0.50, 0.55, 0.65, 0.70, 0.75, 0.80, 0.85, 0.90, 0.95] # Overall probability of developing symptoms
- severe_probs = [0.00000, 0.00000, 0.01100, 0.03400, 0.04300, 0.08200, 0.11800, 0.16600, 0.18400] # Overall probability of developing severe symptoms (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033357v1.full.pdf)
+ severe_probs = [0.00100, 0.00100, 0.01100, 0.03400, 0.04300, 0.08200, 0.11800, 0.16600, 0.18400] # Overall probability of developing severe symptoms (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033357v1.full.pdf)
death_probs = [0.00002, 0.00006, 0.00030, 0.00080, 0.00150, 0.00600, 0.02200, 0.05100, 0.09300] # Overall probability of dying (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf)
# Conditional probabilities of severe symptoms (given symptomatic) and death (given severe symptoms)
