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README.md
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This application uses three different models (ARIMA, Prophet, and LSTM) to forecast stock prices.
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## Features
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- Real-time stock data fetching from Yahoo Finance
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- Multiple forecasting models
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This application uses three different models (ARIMA, Prophet, and LSTM) to forecast stock prices.
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## ================================================================================
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## FINAL RECOMMENDATIONS
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## ================================================================================
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Based on the comprehensive evaluation:
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1. BEST PERFORMING MODEL: LSTM
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- Lowest RMSE: $5.39
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2. KEY FINDINGS:
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- ARIMA Model:
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* Simpler and faster to train
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* Better for short-term forecasts
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* Assumes linear relationships
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* RMSE: $28.98
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* MAPE: 11.57%
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- Prophet Model:
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* Excellent at capturing seasonality and trends
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* Handles missing data and outliers well
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* Provides uncertainty intervals
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* RMSE: $16.29
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* MAPE: 6.97%
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- LSTM Model:
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* Captures non-linear patterns
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* Better for complex time series
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* Requires more data and computation
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* RMSE: $5.39
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* MAPE: 2.06%
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3. RECOMMENDATIONS:
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- For production deployment, consider ensemble methods combining all three models
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- Prophet is excellent for interpretability and trend analysis
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- LSTM performs well when sufficient training data is available
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- ARIMA provides quick baseline forecasts
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- Regularly retrain models with new data
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- Monitor prediction intervals and confidence bounds
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- Consider external factors (news, market sentiment) for better predictions
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4. MODEL SELECTION GUIDE:
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- Use ARIMA for: Quick forecasts, baseline comparisons, stationary data
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- Use Prophet for: Seasonal patterns, interpretable results, business forecasts
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- Use LSTM for: Complex patterns, non-linear relationships, large datasets
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5. LIMITATIONS:
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- Stock prices are inherently unpredictable
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- Past performance doesn't guarantee future results
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- Models should be used as decision support tools, not sole decision makers
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- Consider risk management and diversification strategies
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- All models assume patterns will continue into the future
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## Features
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- Real-time stock data fetching from Yahoo Finance
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- Multiple forecasting models
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