Daily Papers

Neural networks are fundamental in artificial intelligence, driving progress in computer vision and natural language processing. High-quality datasets are crucial for their development, and there is growing interest in datasets composed of neural networks themselves to support benchmarking, automated machine learning (AutoML), and model analysis. We introduce LEMUR, an open source dataset of neural network models with well-structured code for diverse architectures across tasks such as object detection, image classification, segmentation, and natural language processing. LEMUR is primarily designed to provide a rich source of structured model representations and associated performance data, enabling the fine-tuning of large language models for AutoML applications. Leveraging Python and PyTorch, LEMUR enables seamless extension to new datasets and models while maintaining consistency. It integrates an Optuna-powered framework for evaluation, hyperparameter optimization, statistical analysis, and graphical insights. LEMUR VR extension enables the seamless deployment of models in virtual reality, optimizing their performance on resource-constrained devices. Providing tools for model evaluation, preprocessing, and database management, LEMUR supports researchers and practitioners in developing, testing, and analyzing neural networks. It offers an API that delivers comprehensive information about neural network models and their complete performance statistics with a single request, which can be used in experiments with code-generating large language models. The LEMUR and its plugins are accessible as open source projects under the MIT license at https://github.com/ABrain-One/nn-dataset, https://github.com/ABrain-One/nn-plots and https://github.com/ABrain-One/nn-vr.

Scanned receipts OCR and key information extraction (SROIE) represent the processeses of recognizing text from scanned receipts and extracting key texts from them and save the extracted tests to structured documents. SROIE plays critical roles for many document analysis applications and holds great commercial potentials, but very little research works and advances have been published in this area. In recognition of the technical challenges, importance and huge commercial potentials of SROIE, we organized the ICDAR 2019 competition on SROIE. In this competition, we set up three tasks, namely, Scanned Receipt Text Localisation (Task 1), Scanned Receipt OCR (Task 2) and Key Information Extraction from Scanned Receipts (Task 3). A new dataset with 1000 whole scanned receipt images and annotations is created for the competition. In this report we will presents the motivation, competition datasets, task definition, evaluation protocol, submission statistics, performance of submitted methods and results analysis.

Bootstrap Your Own Latent (BYOL) is a self-supervised learning approach for image representation. From an augmented view of an image, BYOL trains an online network to predict a target network representation of a different augmented view of the same image. Unlike contrastive methods, BYOL does not explicitly use a repulsion term built from negative pairs in its training objective. Yet, it avoids collapse to a trivial, constant representation. Thus, it has recently been hypothesized that batch normalization (BN) is critical to prevent collapse in BYOL. Indeed, BN flows gradients across batch elements, and could leak information about negative views in the batch, which could act as an implicit negative (contrastive) term. However, we experimentally show that replacing BN with a batch-independent normalization scheme (namely, a combination of group normalization and weight standardization) achieves performance comparable to vanilla BYOL (73.9% vs. 74.3% top-1 accuracy under the linear evaluation protocol on ImageNet with ResNet-50). Our finding disproves the hypothesis that the use of batch statistics is a crucial ingredient for BYOL to learn useful representations.

While deep neural networks achieve great performance on fitting the training distribution, the learned networks are prone to overfitting and are susceptible to adversarial attacks. In this regard, a number of mixup based augmentation methods have been recently proposed. However, these approaches mainly focus on creating previously unseen virtual examples and can sometimes provide misleading supervisory signal to the network. To this end, we propose Puzzle Mix, a mixup method for explicitly utilizing the saliency information and the underlying statistics of the natural examples. This leads to an interesting optimization problem alternating between the multi-label objective for optimal mixing mask and saliency discounted optimal transport objective. Our experiments show Puzzle Mix achieves the state of the art generalization and the adversarial robustness results compared to other mixup methods on CIFAR-100, Tiny-ImageNet, and ImageNet datasets. The source code is available at https://github.com/snu-mllab/PuzzleMix.

Diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have exhibited excellent performance for high-fidelity image generation while suffering from inefficient sampling. Recent works accelerate the sampling procedure by proposing fast ODE solvers that leverage the specific ODE form of DPMs. However, they highly rely on specific parameterization during inference (such as noise/data prediction), which might not be the optimal choice. In this work, we propose a novel formulation towards the optimal parameterization during sampling that minimizes the first-order discretization error of the ODE solution. Based on such formulation, we propose DPM-Solver-v3, a new fast ODE solver for DPMs by introducing several coefficients efficiently computed on the pretrained model, which we call empirical model statistics. We further incorporate multistep methods and a predictor-corrector framework, and propose some techniques for improving sample quality at small numbers of function evaluations (NFE) or large guidance scales. Experiments show that DPM-Solver-v3 achieves consistently better or comparable performance in both unconditional and conditional sampling with both pixel-space and latent-space DPMs, especially in 5sim10 NFEs. We achieve FIDs of 12.21 (5 NFE), 2.51 (10 NFE) on unconditional CIFAR10, and MSE of 0.55 (5 NFE, 7.5 guidance scale) on Stable Diffusion, bringing a speed-up of 15\%sim30\% compared to previous state-of-the-art training-free methods. Code is available at https://github.com/thu-ml/DPM-Solver-v3.

Large amounts of training data are one of the major reasons for the high performance of state-of-the-art NLP models. But what exactly in the training data causes a model to make a certain prediction? We seek to answer this question by providing a language for describing how training data influences predictions, through a causal framework. Importantly, our framework bypasses the need to retrain expensive models and allows us to estimate causal effects based on observational data alone. Addressing the problem of extracting factual knowledge from pretrained language models (PLMs), we focus on simple data statistics such as co-occurrence counts and show that these statistics do influence the predictions of PLMs, suggesting that such models rely on shallow heuristics. Our causal framework and our results demonstrate the importance of studying datasets and the benefits of causality for understanding NLP models.

Recent test-time adaptation methods heavily rely on nuanced adjustments of batch normalization (BN) parameters. However, one critical assumption often goes overlooked: that of independently and identically distributed (i.i.d.) test batches with respect to unknown labels. This oversight leads to skewed BN statistics and undermines the reliability of the model under non-i.i.d. scenarios. To tackle this challenge, this paper presents a novel method termed 'Un-Mixing Test-Time Normalization Statistics' (UnMix-TNS). Our method re-calibrates the statistics for each instance within a test batch by mixing it with multiple distinct statistics components, thus inherently simulating the i.i.d. scenario. The core of this method hinges on a distinctive online unmixing procedure that continuously updates these statistics components by incorporating the most similar instances from new test batches. Remarkably generic in its design, UnMix-TNS seamlessly integrates with a wide range of leading test-time adaptation methods and pre-trained architectures equipped with BN layers. Empirical evaluations corroborate the robustness of UnMix-TNS under varied scenarios-ranging from single to continual and mixed domain shifts, particularly excelling with temporally correlated test data and corrupted non-i.i.d. real-world streams. This adaptability is maintained even with very small batch sizes or single instances. Our results highlight UnMix-TNS's capacity to markedly enhance stability and performance across various benchmarks. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/devavratTomar/unmixtns.

Deep neural networks have a clear degradation when applying to the unseen environment due to the covariate shift. Conventional approaches like domain adaptation requires the pre-collected target data for iterative training, which is impractical in real-world applications. In this paper, we propose to adapt the deep models to the novel environment during inference. An previous solution is test time normalization, which substitutes the source statistics in BN layers with the target batch statistics. However, we show that test time normalization may potentially deteriorate the discriminative structures due to the mismatch between target batch statistics and source parameters. To this end, we present a general formulation alpha-BN to calibrate the batch statistics by mixing up the source and target statistics for both alleviating the domain shift and preserving the discriminative structures. Based on alpha-BN, we further present a novel loss function to form a unified test time adaptation framework Core, which performs the pairwise class correlation online optimization. Extensive experiments show that our approaches achieve the state-of-the-art performance on total twelve datasets from three topics, including model robustness to corruptions, domain generalization on image classification and semantic segmentation. Particularly, our alpha-BN improves 28.4\% to 43.9\% on GTA5 rightarrow Cityscapes without any training, even outperforms the latest source-free domain adaptation method.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection holds significant importance across many applications. While semantic and domain-shift OOD problems are well-studied, this work focuses on covariate shifts - subtle variations in the data distribution that can degrade machine learning performance. We hypothesize that detecting these subtle shifts can improve our understanding of in-distribution boundaries, ultimately improving OOD detection. In adversarial discriminators trained with Batch Normalization (BN), real and adversarial samples form distinct domains with unique batch statistics - a property we exploit for OOD detection. We introduce DisCoPatch, an unsupervised Adversarial Variational Autoencoder (VAE) framework that harnesses this mechanism. During inference, batches consist of patches from the same image, ensuring a consistent data distribution that allows the model to rely on batch statistics. DisCoPatch uses the VAE's suboptimal outputs (generated and reconstructed) as negative samples to train the discriminator, thereby improving its ability to delineate the boundary between in-distribution samples and covariate shifts. By tightening this boundary, DisCoPatch achieves state-of-the-art results in public OOD detection benchmarks. The proposed model not only excels in detecting covariate shifts, achieving 95.5% AUROC on ImageNet-1K(-C) but also outperforms all prior methods on public Near-OOD (95.0%) benchmarks. With a compact model size of 25MB, it achieves high OOD detection performance at notably lower latency than existing methods, making it an efficient and practical solution for real-world OOD detection applications. The code is publicly available.

Continual learning entails learning a sequence of tasks and balancing their knowledge appropriately. With limited access to old training samples, much of the current work in deep neural networks has focused on overcoming catastrophic forgetting of old tasks in gradient-based optimization. However, the normalization layers provide an exception, as they are updated interdependently by the gradient and statistics of currently observed training samples, which require specialized strategies to mitigate recency bias. In this work, we focus on the most popular Batch Normalization (BN) and provide an in-depth theoretical analysis of its sub-optimality in continual learning. Our analysis demonstrates the dilemma between balance and adaptation of BN statistics for incremental tasks, which potentially affects training stability and generalization. Targeting on these particular challenges, we propose Adaptive Balance of BN (AdaB^2N), which incorporates appropriately a Bayesian-based strategy to adapt task-wise contributions and a modified momentum to balance BN statistics, corresponding to the training and testing stages. By implementing BN in a continual learning fashion, our approach achieves significant performance gains across a wide range of benchmarks, particularly for the challenging yet realistic online scenarios (e.g., up to 7.68%, 6.86% and 4.26% on Split CIFAR-10, Split CIFAR-100 and Split Mini-ImageNet, respectively). Our code is available at https://github.com/lvyilin/AdaB2N.

Among generative models, diffusion models are uniquely intriguing due to the existence of a closed-form optimal minimizer of their training objective, often referred to as the optimal denoiser. However, diffusion using this optimal denoiser merely reproduces images in the training set and hence fails to capture the behavior of deep diffusion models. Recent work has attempted to characterize this gap between the optimal denoiser and deep diffusion models, proposing analytical, training-free models that can generate images that resemble those generated by a trained UNet. The best-performing method hypothesizes that shift equivariance and locality inductive biases of convolutional neural networks are the cause of the performance gap, hence incorporating these assumptions into its analytical model. In this work, we present evidence that the locality in deep diffusion models emerges as a statistical property of the image dataset, not due to the inductive bias of convolutional neural networks. Specifically, we demonstrate that an optimal parametric linear denoiser exhibits similar locality properties to the deep neural denoisers. We further show, both theoretically and experimentally, that this locality arises directly from the pixel correlations present in natural image datasets. Finally, we use these insights to craft an analytical denoiser that better matches scores predicted by a deep diffusion model than the prior expert-crafted alternative.

In this time when biased information, deep fakes, and propaganda proliferate, the accessibility of reliable data sources is more important than ever. National statistical institutes provide curated data that contain quantitative information on a wide range of topics. However, that information is typically spread across many tables and the plain numbers may be arduous to process. Hence, this open data may be practically inaccessible. We ask the question "Are current Generative AI models capable of facilitating the identification of the right data and the fully-automatic creation of charts to provide information in visual form, corresponding to user queries?". We present a structured evaluation of recent large language models' (LLMs) capabilities to generate charts from complex data in response to user queries. Working with diverse public data from Statistics Netherlands, we assessed multiple LLMs on their ability to identify relevant data tables, perform necessary manipulations, and generate appropriate visualizations autonomously. We propose a new evaluation framework spanning three dimensions: data retrieval & pre-processing, code quality, and visual representation. Results indicate that locating and processing the correct data represents the most significant challenge. Additionally, LLMs rarely implement visualization best practices without explicit guidance. When supplemented with information about effective chart design, models showed marked improvement in representation scores. Furthermore, an agentic approach with iterative self-evaluation led to excellent performance across all evaluation dimensions. These findings suggest that LLMs' effectiveness for automated chart generation can be enhanced through appropriate scaffolding and feedback mechanisms, and that systems can already reach the necessary accuracy across the three evaluation dimensions.

In this paper, we address the detection of co-occurring salient objects (CoSOD) in an image group using frequency statistics in an unsupervised manner, which further enable us to develop a semi-supervised method. While previous works have mostly focused on fully supervised CoSOD, less attention has been allocated to detecting co-salient objects when limited segmentation annotations are available for training. Our simple yet effective unsupervised method US-CoSOD combines the object co-occurrence frequency statistics of unsupervised single-image semantic segmentations with salient foreground detections using self-supervised feature learning. For the first time, we show that a large unlabeled dataset e.g. ImageNet-1k can be effectively leveraged to significantly improve unsupervised CoSOD performance. Our unsupervised model is a great pre-training initialization for our semi-supervised model SS-CoSOD, especially when very limited labeled data is available for training. To avoid propagating erroneous signals from predictions on unlabeled data, we propose a confidence estimation module to guide our semi-supervised training. Extensive experiments on three CoSOD benchmark datasets show that both of our unsupervised and semi-supervised models outperform the corresponding state-of-the-art models by a significant margin (e.g., on the Cosal2015 dataset, our US-CoSOD model has an 8.8% F-measure gain over a SOTA unsupervised co-segmentation model and our SS-CoSOD model has an 11.81% F-measure gain over a SOTA semi-supervised CoSOD model).

The ROC curve is the major tool for assessing not only the performance but also the fairness properties of a similarity scoring function. In order to draw reliable conclusions based on empirical ROC analysis, accurately evaluating the uncertainty level related to statistical versions of the ROC curves of interest is absolutely necessary, especially for applications with considerable societal impact such as Face Recognition. In this article, we prove asymptotic guarantees for empirical ROC curves of similarity functions as well as for by-product metrics useful to assess fairness. We also explain that, because the false acceptance/rejection rates are of the form of U-statistics in the case of similarity scoring, the naive bootstrap approach may jeopardize the assessment procedure. A dedicated recentering technique must be used instead. Beyond the theoretical analysis carried out, various experiments using real face image datasets provide strong empirical evidence of the practical relevance of the methods promoted here, when applied to several ROC-based measures such as popular fairness metrics.

We address the problem of video representation learning without human-annotated labels. While previous efforts address the problem by designing novel self-supervised tasks using video data, the learned features are merely on a frame-by-frame basis, which are not applicable to many video analytic tasks where spatio-temporal features are prevailing. In this paper we propose a novel self-supervised approach to learn spatio-temporal features for video representation. Inspired by the success of two-stream approaches in video classification, we propose to learn visual features by regressing both motion and appearance statistics along spatial and temporal dimensions, given only the input video data. Specifically, we extract statistical concepts (fast-motion region and the corresponding dominant direction, spatio-temporal color diversity, dominant color, etc.) from simple patterns in both spatial and temporal domains. Unlike prior puzzles that are even hard for humans to solve, the proposed approach is consistent with human inherent visual habits and therefore easy to answer. We conduct extensive experiments with C3D to validate the effectiveness of our proposed approach. The experiments show that our approach can significantly improve the performance of C3D when applied to video classification tasks. Code is available at https://github.com/laura-wang/video_repres_mas.

Maintaining natural image statistics is a crucial factor in restoration and generation of realistic looking images. When training CNNs, photorealism is usually attempted by adversarial training (GAN), that pushes the output images to lie on the manifold of natural images. GANs are very powerful, but not perfect. They are hard to train and the results still often suffer from artifacts. In this paper we propose a complementary approach, that could be applied with or without GAN, whose goal is to train a feed-forward CNN to maintain natural internal statistics. We look explicitly at the distribution of features in an image and train the network to generate images with natural feature distributions. Our approach reduces by orders of magnitude the number of images required for training and achieves state-of-the-art results on both single-image super-resolution, and high-resolution surface normal estimation.

In federated learning (FL), clients usually have diverse participation statistics that are unknown a priori, which can significantly harm the performance of FL if not handled properly. Existing works aiming at addressing this problem are usually based on global variance reduction, which requires a substantial amount of additional memory in a multiplicative factor equal to the total number of clients. An important open problem is to find a lightweight method for FL in the presence of clients with unknown participation rates. In this paper, we address this problem by adapting the aggregation weights in federated averaging (FedAvg) based on the participation history of each client. We first show that, with heterogeneous participation statistics, FedAvg with non-optimal aggregation weights can diverge from the optimal solution of the original FL objective, indicating the need of finding optimal aggregation weights. However, it is difficult to compute the optimal weights when the participation statistics are unknown. To address this problem, we present a new algorithm called FedAU, which improves FedAvg by adaptively weighting the client updates based on online estimates of the optimal weights without knowing the statistics of client participation. We provide a theoretical convergence analysis of FedAU using a novel methodology to connect the estimation error and convergence. Our theoretical results reveal important and interesting insights, while showing that FedAU converges to an optimal solution of the original objective and has desirable properties such as linear speedup. Our experimental results also verify the advantage of FedAU over baseline methods with various participation patterns.

Deep learning (DL) applied to a device's radio-frequency fingerprint~(RFF) has attracted significant attention in physical-layer authentication due to its extraordinary classification performance. Conventional DL-RFF techniques are trained by adopting maximum likelihood estimation~(MLE). Although their discriminability has recently been extended to unknown devices in open-set scenarios, they still tend to overfit the channel statistics embedded in the training dataset. This restricts their practical applications as it is challenging to collect sufficient training data capturing the characteristics of all possible wireless channel environments. To address this challenge, we propose a DL framework of disentangled representation~(DR) learning that first learns to factor the signals into a device-relevant component and a device-irrelevant component via adversarial learning. Then, it shuffles these two parts within a dataset for implicit data augmentation, which imposes a strong regularization on RFF extractor learning to avoid the possible overfitting of device-irrelevant channel statistics, without collecting additional data from unknown channels. Experiments validate that the proposed approach, referred to as DR-based RFF, outperforms conventional methods in terms of generalizability to unknown devices even under unknown complicated propagation environments, e.g., dispersive multipath fading channels, even though all the training data are collected in a simple environment with dominated direct line-of-sight~(LoS) propagation paths.

Contrastive learning -- a modern approach to extract useful representations from unlabeled data by training models to distinguish similar samples from dissimilar ones -- has driven significant progress in foundation models. In this work, we develop a new theoretical framework for analyzing data augmentation-based contrastive learning, with a focus on SimCLR as a representative example. Our approach is based on the concept of approximate sufficient statistics, which we extend beyond its original definition in oko2025statistical for contrastive language-image pretraining (CLIP) using KL-divergence. We generalize it to equivalent forms and general f-divergences, and show that minimizing SimCLR and other contrastive losses yields encoders that are approximately sufficient. Furthermore, we demonstrate that these near-sufficient encoders can be effectively adapted to downstream regression and classification tasks, with performance depending on their sufficiency and the error induced by data augmentation in contrastive learning. Concrete examples in linear regression and topic classification are provided to illustrate the broad applicability of our results.

Recent work on large language models (LLMs) has increasingly focused on post-training and alignment with datasets curated to enhance instruction following, world knowledge, and specialized skills. However, most post-training datasets used in leading open- and closed-source LLMs remain inaccessible to the public, with limited information about their construction process. This lack of transparency has motivated the recent development of open-source post-training corpora. While training on these open alternatives can yield performance comparable to that of leading models, systematic comparisons remain challenging due to the significant computational cost of conducting them rigorously at scale, and are therefore largely absent. As a result, it remains unclear how specific samples, task types, or curation strategies influence downstream performance when assessing data quality. In this work, we conduct the first comprehensive side-by-side analysis of two prominent open post-training datasets: Tulu-3-SFT-Mix and SmolTalk. Using the Magpie framework, we annotate each sample with detailed quality metrics, including turn structure (single-turn vs. multi-turn), task category, input quality, and response quality, and we derive statistics that reveal structural and qualitative similarities and differences between the two datasets. Based on these insights, we design a principled curation recipe that produces a new data mixture, TuluTalk, which contains 14% fewer samples than either source dataset while matching or exceeding their performance on key benchmarks. Our findings offer actionable insights for constructing more effective post-training datasets that improve model performance within practical resource limits. To support future research, we publicly release both the annotated source datasets and our curated TuluTalk mixture.

Solid results from Transformers have made them prevailing architectures in various natural language and vision tasks. As a default component in Transformers, Layer Normalization (LN) normalizes activations within each token to boost the robustness. However, LN requires on-the-fly statistics calculation in inference as well as division and square root operations, leading to inefficiency on hardware. What is more, replacing LN with other hardware-efficient normalization schemes (e.g., Batch Normalization) results in inferior performance, even collapse in training. We find that this dilemma is caused by abnormal behaviors of activation statistics, including large fluctuations over iterations and extreme outliers across layers. To tackle these issues, we propose Unified Normalization (UN), which can speed up the inference by being fused with other linear operations and achieve comparable performance on par with LN. UN strives to boost performance by calibrating the activation and gradient statistics with a tailored fluctuation smoothing strategy. Meanwhile, an adaptive outlier filtration strategy is applied to avoid collapse in training whose effectiveness is theoretically proved and experimentally verified in this paper. We demonstrate that UN can be an efficient drop-in alternative to LN by conducting extensive experiments on language and vision tasks. Besides, we evaluate the efficiency of our method on GPU. Transformers equipped with UN enjoy about 31% inference speedup and nearly 18% memory reduction. Code will be released at https://github.com/hikvision-research/Unified-Normalization.

Significant progress has been made in spatial intelligence, spanning both spatial reconstruction and world exploration. However, the scalability and real-world fidelity of current models remain severely constrained by the scarcity of large-scale, high-quality training data. While several datasets provide camera pose information, they are typically limited in scale, diversity, and annotation richness, particularly for real-world dynamic scenes with ground-truth camera motion. To this end, we collect SpatialVID, a dataset consists of a large corpus of in-the-wild videos with diverse scenes, camera movements and dense 3D annotations such as per-frame camera poses, depth, and motion instructions. Specifically, we collect more than 21,000 hours of raw video, and process them into 2.7 million clips through a hierarchical filtering pipeline, totaling 7,089 hours of dynamic content. A subsequent annotation pipeline enriches these clips with detailed spatial and semantic information, including camera poses, depth maps, dynamic masks, structured captions, and serialized motion instructions. Analysis of SpatialVID's data statistics reveals a richness and diversity that directly foster improved model generalization and performance, establishing it as a key asset for the video and 3D vision research community.

Recent advancements in Zero-shot Neural Architecture Search (NAS) highlight the efficacy of zero-cost proxies in various NAS benchmarks. Several studies propose the automated design of zero-cost proxies to achieve SOTA performance but require tedious searching progress. Furthermore, we identify a critical issue with current zero-cost proxies: they aggregate node-wise zero-cost statistics without considering the fact that not all nodes in a neural network equally impact performance estimation. Our observations reveal that node-wise zero-cost statistics significantly vary in their contributions to performance, with each node exhibiting a degree of uncertainty. Based on this insight, we introduce a novel method called Parametric Zero-Cost Proxies (ParZC) framework to enhance the adaptability of zero-cost proxies through parameterization. To address the node indiscrimination, we propose a Mixer Architecture with Bayesian Network (MABN) to explore the node-wise zero-cost statistics and estimate node-specific uncertainty. Moreover, we propose DiffKendall as a loss function to directly optimize Kendall's Tau coefficient in a differentiable manner so that our ParZC can better handle the discrepancies in ranking architectures. Comprehensive experiments on NAS-Bench-101, 201, and NDS demonstrate the superiority of our proposed ParZC compared to existing zero-shot NAS methods. Additionally, we demonstrate the versatility and adaptability of ParZC by transferring it to the Vision Transformer search space.

We describe the DeepMind Kinetics human action video dataset. The dataset contains 400 human action classes, with at least 400 video clips for each action. Each clip lasts around 10s and is taken from a different YouTube video. The actions are human focussed and cover a broad range of classes including human-object interactions such as playing instruments, as well as human-human interactions such as shaking hands. We describe the statistics of the dataset, how it was collected, and give some baseline performance figures for neural network architectures trained and tested for human action classification on this dataset. We also carry out a preliminary analysis of whether imbalance in the dataset leads to bias in the classifiers.

In this paper, we introduce a novel theoretical framework for multi-task regression, applying random matrix theory to provide precise performance estimations, under high-dimensional, non-Gaussian data distributions. We formulate a multi-task optimization problem as a regularization technique to enable single-task models to leverage multi-task learning information. We derive a closed-form solution for multi-task optimization in the context of linear models. Our analysis provides valuable insights by linking the multi-task learning performance to various model statistics such as raw data covariances, signal-generating hyperplanes, noise levels, as well as the size and number of datasets. We finally propose a consistent estimation of training and testing errors, thereby offering a robust foundation for hyperparameter optimization in multi-task regression scenarios. Experimental validations on both synthetic and real-world datasets in regression and multivariate time series forecasting demonstrate improvements on univariate models, incorporating our method into the training loss and thus leveraging multivariate information.

Semantic Segmentation is a significant research field in Computer Vision. Despite being a widely studied subject area, many visualization tools do not exist that capture segmentation quality and dataset statistics such as a class imbalance in the same view. While the significance of discovering and introspecting the correlation between dataset statistics and AI model performance for dense prediction computer vision tasks such as semantic segmentation is well established in the computer vision literature, to the best of our knowledge, no visualization tools have been proposed to view and analyze the aforementioned tasks. Our project aims to bridge this gap by proposing three visualizations that enable users to compare dataset statistics and AI performance for segmenting all images, a single image in the dataset, explore the AI model's attention on image regions once trained and browse the quality of masks predicted by AI for any selected (by user) number of objects under the same tool. Our project tries to further increase the interpretability of the trained AI model for segmentation by visualizing its image attention weights. For visualization, we use Scatterplot and Heatmap to encode correlation and features, respectively. We further propose to conduct surveys on real users to study the efficacy of our visualization tool in computer vision and AI domain. The full system can be accessed at https://github.com/dipta007/SeeBel

Supervised deep learning with pixel-wise training labels has great successes on multi-person part segmentation. However, data labeling at pixel-level is very expensive. To solve the problem, people have been exploring to use synthetic data to avoid the data labeling. Although it is easy to generate labels for synthetic data, the results are much worse compared to those using real data and manual labeling. The degradation of the performance is mainly due to the domain gap, i.e., the discrepancy of the pixel value statistics between real and synthetic data. In this paper, we observe that real and synthetic humans both have a skeleton (pose) representation. We found that the skeletons can effectively bridge the synthetic and real domains during the training. Our proposed approach takes advantage of the rich and realistic variations of the real data and the easily obtainable labels of the synthetic data to learn multi-person part segmentation on real images without any human-annotated labels. Through experiments, we show that without any human labeling, our method performs comparably to several state-of-the-art approaches which require human labeling on Pascal-Person-Parts and COCO-DensePose datasets. On the other hand, if part labels are also available in the real-images during training, our method outperforms the supervised state-of-the-art methods by a large margin. We further demonstrate the generalizability of our method on predicting novel keypoints in real images where no real data labels are available for the novel keypoints detection. Code and pre-trained models are available at https://github.com/kevinlin311tw/CDCL-human-part-segmentation

We present Open Images V4, a dataset of 9.2M images with unified annotations for image classification, object detection and visual relationship detection. The images have a Creative Commons Attribution license that allows to share and adapt the material, and they have been collected from Flickr without a predefined list of class names or tags, leading to natural class statistics and avoiding an initial design bias. Open Images V4 offers large scale across several dimensions: 30.1M image-level labels for 19.8k concepts, 15.4M bounding boxes for 600 object classes, and 375k visual relationship annotations involving 57 classes. For object detection in particular, we provide 15x more bounding boxes than the next largest datasets (15.4M boxes on 1.9M images). The images often show complex scenes with several objects (8 annotated objects per image on average). We annotated visual relationships between them, which support visual relationship detection, an emerging task that requires structured reasoning. We provide in-depth comprehensive statistics about the dataset, we validate the quality of the annotations, we study how the performance of several modern models evolves with increasing amounts of training data, and we demonstrate two applications made possible by having unified annotations of multiple types coexisting in the same images. We hope that the scale, quality, and variety of Open Images V4 will foster further research and innovation even beyond the areas of image classification, object detection, and visual relationship detection.

Proteins perform nearly all cellular functions and constitute most drug targets, making their analysis fundamental to understanding human biology in health and disease. Tandem mass spectrometry (MS^2) is the major analytical technique in proteomics that identifies peptides by ionizing them, fragmenting them, and using the resulting mass spectra to identify and quantify proteins in biological samples. In MS^2 analysis, peptide fragment ion probability prediction plays a critical role, enhancing the accuracy of peptide identification from mass spectra as a complement to the intensity information. Current approaches rely on global statistics of fragmentation, which assumes that a fragment's probability is uniform across all peptides. Nevertheless, this assumption is oversimplified from a biochemical principle point of view and limits accurate prediction. To address this gap, we present Pep2Prob, the first comprehensive dataset and benchmark designed for peptide-specific fragment ion probability prediction. The proposed dataset contains fragment ion probability statistics for 608,780 unique precursors (each precursor is a pair of peptide sequence and charge state), summarized from more than 183 million high-quality, high-resolution, HCD MS^2 spectra with validated peptide assignments and fragmentation annotations. We establish baseline performance using simple statistical rules and learning-based methods, and find that models leveraging peptide-specific information significantly outperform previous methods using only global fragmentation statistics. Furthermore, performance across benchmark models with increasing capacities suggests that the peptide-fragmentation relationship exhibits complex nonlinearities requiring sophisticated machine learning approaches.

Code-switching (CS), the alternation between two or more languages within a single conversation, presents significant challenges for automatic speech recognition (ASR) systems. Existing Mandarin-English code-switching datasets often suffer from limitations in size, spontaneity, and the lack of full-length dialogue recordings with transcriptions, hindering the development of robust ASR models for real-world conversational scenarios. This paper introduces CS-Dialogue, a novel large-scale Mandarin-English code-switching speech dataset comprising 104 hours of spontaneous conversations from 200 speakers. Unlike previous datasets, CS-Dialogue provides full-length dialogue recordings with complete transcriptions, capturing naturalistic code-switching patterns in continuous speech. We describe the data collection and annotation processes, present detailed statistics of the dataset, and establish benchmark ASR performance using state-of-the-art models. Our experiments, using Transformer, Conformer, and Branchformer, demonstrate the challenges of code-switching ASR, and show that existing pre-trained models such as Whisper still have the space to improve. The CS-Dialogue dataset will be made freely available for all academic purposes.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have ignited an innovative surge of AI applications, marking a new era of exciting possibilities equipped with extended context windows. However, hosting these models is cost-prohibitive mainly due to the extensive memory consumption of KV Cache involving long-context modeling. Despite several works proposing to evict unnecessary tokens from the KV Cache, most of them rely on the biased local statistics of accumulated attention scores and report performance using unconvincing metric like perplexity on inadequate short-text evaluation. In this paper, we propose NACL, a general framework for long-context KV cache eviction that achieves more optimal and efficient eviction in a single operation during the encoding phase. Due to NACL's efficiency, we combine more accurate attention score statistics in PROXY TOKENS EVICTION with the diversified random eviction strategy of RANDOM EVICTION, aiming to alleviate the issue of attention bias and enhance the robustness in maintaining pivotal tokens for long-context modeling tasks. Notably, our method significantly improves the performance on short- and long-text tasks by 80% and 76% respectively, reducing KV Cache by up to 50% with over 95% performance maintenance. The code is available at https://github.com/PaddlePaddle/Research/tree/master/NLP/ACL2024-NACL.

We present the findings of "The Alzheimer's Disease Prediction Of Longitudinal Evolution" (TADPOLE) Challenge, which compared the performance of 92 algorithms from 33 international teams at predicting the future trajectory of 219 individuals at risk of Alzheimer's disease. Challenge participants were required to make a prediction, for each month of a 5-year future time period, of three key outcomes: clinical diagnosis, Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale Cognitive Subdomain (ADAS-Cog13), and total volume of the ventricles. The methods used by challenge participants included multivariate linear regression, machine learning methods such as support vector machines and deep neural networks, as well as disease progression models. No single submission was best at predicting all three outcomes. For clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume prediction, the best algorithms strongly outperform simple baselines in predictive ability. However, for ADAS-Cog13 no single submitted prediction method was significantly better than random guesswork. Two ensemble methods based on taking the mean and median over all predictions, obtained top scores on almost all tasks. Better than average performance at diagnosis prediction was generally associated with the additional inclusion of features from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). On the other hand, better performance at ventricle volume prediction was associated with inclusion of summary statistics, such as the slope or maxima/minima of biomarkers. TADPOLE's unique results suggest that current prediction algorithms provide sufficient accuracy to exploit biomarkers related to clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume, for cohort refinement in clinical trials for Alzheimer's disease. However, results call into question the usage of cognitive test scores for patient selection and as a primary endpoint in clinical trials.

Stateful optimizers maintain gradient statistics over time, e.g., the exponentially smoothed sum (SGD with momentum) or squared sum (Adam) of past gradient values. This state can be used to accelerate optimization compared to plain stochastic gradient descent but uses memory that might otherwise be allocated to model parameters, thereby limiting the maximum size of models trained in practice. In this paper, we develop the first optimizers that use 8-bit statistics while maintaining the performance levels of using 32-bit optimizer states. To overcome the resulting computational, quantization, and stability challenges, we develop block-wise dynamic quantization. Block-wise quantization divides input tensors into smaller blocks that are independently quantized. Each block is processed in parallel across cores, yielding faster optimization and high precision quantization. To maintain stability and performance, we combine block-wise quantization with two additional changes: (1) dynamic quantization, a form of non-linear optimization that is precise for both large and small magnitude values, and (2) a stable embedding layer to reduce gradient variance that comes from the highly non-uniform distribution of input tokens in language models. As a result, our 8-bit optimizers maintain 32-bit performance with a small fraction of the memory footprint on a range of tasks, including 1.5B parameter language modeling, GLUE finetuning, ImageNet classification, WMT'14 machine translation, MoCo v2 contrastive ImageNet pretraining+finetuning, and RoBERTa pretraining, without changes to the original optimizer hyperparameters. We open-source our 8-bit optimizers as a drop-in replacement that only requires a two-line code change.

Large-scale foundation models in Earth Observation can learn versatile, label-efficient representations by leveraging massive amounts of unlabeled data. However, existing public datasets are often limited in scale, geographic coverage, or sensor variety. We introduce TerraMesh, a new globally diverse, multimodal dataset combining optical, synthetic aperture radar, elevation, and land-cover modalities in an Analysis-Ready Data format. TerraMesh includes over 9 million samples with eight spatiotemporal aligned modalities, enabling large-scale pre-training and fostering robust cross-modal correlation learning. We provide detailed data processing steps, comprehensive statistics, and empirical evidence demonstrating improved model performance when pre-trained on TerraMesh. The dataset will be made publicly available with a permissive license.

This technical report provides a detailed overview of Endoscapes, a dataset of laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC) videos with highly intricate annotations targeted at automated assessment of the Critical View of Safety (CVS). Endoscapes comprises 201 LC videos with frames annotated sparsely but regularly with segmentation masks, bounding boxes, and CVS assessment by three different clinical experts. Altogether, there are 11090 frames annotated with CVS and 1933 frames annotated with tool and anatomy bounding boxes from the 201 videos, as well as an additional 422 frames from 50 of the 201 videos annotated with tool and anatomy segmentation masks. In this report, we provide detailed dataset statistics (size, class distribution, dataset splits, etc.) and a comprehensive performance benchmark for instance segmentation, object detection, and CVS prediction. The dataset and model checkpoints are publically available at https://github.com/CAMMA-public/Endoscapes.

Test-Time-Training (TTT) is an approach to cope with out-of-distribution (OOD) data by adapting a trained model to distribution shifts occurring at test-time. We propose to perform this adaptation via Activation Matching (ActMAD): We analyze activations of the model and align activation statistics of the OOD test data to those of the training data. In contrast to existing methods, which model the distribution of entire channels in the ultimate layer of the feature extractor, we model the distribution of each feature in multiple layers across the network. This results in a more fine-grained supervision and makes ActMAD attain state of the art performance on CIFAR-100C and Imagenet-C. ActMAD is also architecture- and task-agnostic, which lets us go beyond image classification, and score 15.4% improvement over previous approaches when evaluating a KITTI-trained object detector on KITTI-Fog. Our experiments highlight that ActMAD can be applied to online adaptation in realistic scenarios, requiring little data to attain its full performance.

Large language models with a huge number of parameters, when trained on near internet-sized number of tokens, have been empirically shown to obey neural scaling laws: specifically, their performance behaves predictably as a power law in either parameters or dataset size until bottlenecked by the other resource. To understand this better, we first identify the necessary properties allowing such scaling laws to arise and then propose a statistical model -- a joint generative data model and random feature model -- that captures this neural scaling phenomenology. By solving this model in the dual limit of large training set size and large number of parameters, we gain insight into (i) the statistical structure of datasets and tasks that lead to scaling laws, (ii) the way nonlinear feature maps, such as those provided by neural networks, enable scaling laws when trained on these datasets, (iii) the optimality of the equiparameterization scaling of training sets and parameters, and (iv) whether such scaling laws can break down and how they behave when they do. Key findings are the manner in which the power laws that occur in the statistics of natural datasets are extended by nonlinear random feature maps and then translated into power-law scalings of the test loss and how the finite extent of the data's spectral power law causes the model's performance to plateau.

While the use of bottom-up local operators in convolutional neural networks (CNNs) matches well some of the statistics of natural images, it may also prevent such models from capturing contextual long-range feature interactions. In this work, we propose a simple, lightweight approach for better context exploitation in CNNs. We do so by introducing a pair of operators: gather, which efficiently aggregates feature responses from a large spatial extent, and excite, which redistributes the pooled information to local features. The operators are cheap, both in terms of number of added parameters and computational complexity, and can be integrated directly in existing architectures to improve their performance. Experiments on several datasets show that gather-excite can bring benefits comparable to increasing the depth of a CNN at a fraction of the cost. For example, we find ResNet-50 with gather-excite operators is able to outperform its 101-layer counterpart on ImageNet with no additional learnable parameters. We also propose a parametric gather-excite operator pair which yields further performance gains, relate it to the recently-introduced Squeeze-and-Excitation Networks, and analyse the effects of these changes to the CNN feature activation statistics.

Training Large Language Models (LLMs) is memory-intensive due to the large number of parameters and associated optimization states. GaLore, a recent method, reduces memory usage by projecting weight gradients into a low-rank subspace without compromising performance. However, GaLore relies on time-consuming Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) operations to identify the subspace, and the frequent subspace updates lead to significant training time overhead. Moreover, GaLore offers minimal improvements in accuracy and efficiency compared to LoRA in more accessible fine-tuning scenarios. To address these limitations, we introduce Q-Galore, a novel approach that substantially reduces memory usage by combining quantization and low-rank projection, surpassing the benefits of GaLore. Our method is based on two key observations: (i) the gradient subspace exhibits diverse properties, with some layers converging early in training while others are subject to frequent changes; (ii) the projection matrices are highly resilient to low-bit quantization. Leveraging these insights, Q-GaLore adaptively updates the gradient subspace based on its convergence statistics, achieving comparable performance while significantly reducing the number of SVD operations. We maintain the projection matrices in INT4 format and weights in INT8 format, incorporating stochastic rounding to capture accumulated gradient information. This approach enables a high-precision training trajectory using only low-precision weights. We demonstrate that Q-GaLore achieves highly competitive performance with exceptional memory efficiency. At pre-training, Q-GaLore facilitates training a LLaMA-7B model from scratch on a single NVIDIA RTX 4060 Ti with only 16 GB memory. At fine-tuning, it reduces memory consumption by up to 50% compared to LoRA and GaLore, while consistently outperforming QLoRA at the same memory cost.

We introduce PubMedQA, a novel biomedical question answering (QA) dataset collected from PubMed abstracts. The task of PubMedQA is to answer research questions with yes/no/maybe (e.g.: Do preoperative statins reduce atrial fibrillation after coronary artery bypass grafting?) using the corresponding abstracts. PubMedQA has 1k expert-annotated, 61.2k unlabeled and 211.3k artificially generated QA instances. Each PubMedQA instance is composed of (1) a question which is either an existing research article title or derived from one, (2) a context which is the corresponding abstract without its conclusion, (3) a long answer, which is the conclusion of the abstract and, presumably, answers the research question, and (4) a yes/no/maybe answer which summarizes the conclusion. PubMedQA is the first QA dataset where reasoning over biomedical research texts, especially their quantitative contents, is required to answer the questions. Our best performing model, multi-phase fine-tuning of BioBERT with long answer bag-of-word statistics as additional supervision, achieves 68.1% accuracy, compared to single human performance of 78.0% accuracy and majority-baseline of 55.2% accuracy, leaving much room for improvement. PubMedQA is publicly available at https://pubmedqa.github.io.

While the design of blind image quality assessment (IQA) algorithms has improved significantly, the distribution shift between the training and testing scenarios often leads to a poor performance of these methods at inference time. This motivates the study of test time adaptation (TTA) techniques to improve their performance at inference time. Existing auxiliary tasks and loss functions used for TTA may not be relevant for quality-aware adaptation of the pre-trained model. In this work, we introduce two novel quality-relevant auxiliary tasks at the batch and sample levels to enable TTA for blind IQA. In particular, we introduce a group contrastive loss at the batch level and a relative rank loss at the sample level to make the model quality aware and adapt to the target data. Our experiments reveal that even using a small batch of images from the test distribution helps achieve significant improvement in performance by updating the batch normalization statistics of the source model.

In many sports, it is commonly believed that the home team has an advantage over the visiting team, known as the home field advantage. Yet its causal effect on team performance is largely unknown. In this paper, we propose a novel causal inference approach to study the causal effect of home field advantage in English Premier League. We develop a hierarchical causal model and show that both league level and team level causal effects are identifiable and can be conveniently estimated. We further develop an inference procedure for the proposed estimators and demonstrate its excellent numerical performance via simulation studies. We implement our method on the 2020-21 English Premier League data and assess the causal effect of home advantage on eleven summary statistics that measure the offensive and defensive performance and referee bias. We find that the home field advantage resides more heavily in offensive statistics than it does in defensive or referee statistics. We also find evidence that teams that had lower rankings retain a higher home field advantage.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in generating high-quality texts across diverse domains. However, the potential misuse of LLMs has raised significant concerns, underscoring the urgent need for reliable detection of LLM-generated texts. Conventional training-based detectors often struggle with generalization, particularly in cross-domain and cross-model scenarios. In contrast, training-free methods, which focus on inherent discrepancies through carefully designed statistical features, offer improved generalization and interpretability. Despite this, existing training-free detection methods typically rely on global text sequence statistics, neglecting the modeling of local discriminative features, thereby limiting their detection efficacy. In this work, we introduce a novel training-free detector, termed Lastde that synergizes local and global statistics for enhanced detection. For the first time, we introduce time series analysis to LLM-generated text detection, capturing the temporal dynamics of token probability sequences. By integrating these local statistics with global ones, our detector reveals significant disparities between human and LLM-generated texts. We also propose an efficient alternative, Lastde++ to enable real-time detection. Extensive experiments on six datasets involving cross-domain, cross-model, and cross-lingual detection scenarios, under both white-box and black-box settings, demonstrated that our method consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance. Furthermore, our approach exhibits greater robustness against paraphrasing attacks compared to existing baseline methods.

Entity resolution (record linkage, microclustering) systems are notoriously difficult to evaluate. Looking for a needle in a haystack, traditional evaluation methods use sophisticated, application-specific sampling schemes to find matching pairs of records among an immense number of non-matches. We propose an alternative that facilitates the creation of representative, reusable benchmark data sets without necessitating complex sampling schemes. These benchmark data sets can then be used for model training and a variety of evaluation tasks. Specifically, we propose an entity-centric data labeling methodology that integrates with a unified framework for monitoring summary statistics, estimating key performance metrics such as cluster and pairwise precision and recall, and analyzing root causes for errors. We validate the framework in an application to inventor name disambiguation and through simulation studies. Software: https://github.com/OlivierBinette/er-evaluation/

It is well-known that the performance of well-trained deep neural networks may degrade significantly when they are applied to data with even slightly shifted distributions. Recent studies have shown that introducing certain perturbation on feature statistics (\eg, mean and standard deviation) during training can enhance the cross-domain generalization ability. Existing methods typically conduct such perturbation by utilizing the feature statistics within a mini-batch, limiting their representation capability. Inspired by the domain generalization objective, we introduce a novel Adversarial Style Augmentation (ASA) method, which explores broader style spaces by generating more effective statistics perturbation via adversarial training. Specifically, we first search for the most sensitive direction and intensity for statistics perturbation by maximizing the task loss. By updating the model against the adversarial statistics perturbation during training, we allow the model to explore the worst-case domain and hence improve its generalization performance. To facilitate the application of ASA, we design a simple yet effective module, namely AdvStyle, which instantiates the ASA method in a plug-and-play manner. We justify the efficacy of AdvStyle on tasks of cross-domain classification and instance retrieval. It achieves higher mean accuracy and lower performance fluctuation. Especially, our method significantly outperforms its competitors on the PACS dataset under the single source generalization setting, \eg, boosting the classification accuracy from 61.2\% to 67.1\% with a ResNet50 backbone. Our code will be available at https://github.com/YBZh/AdvStyle.

Recently, unsupervised exemplar-based image-to-image translation, conditioned on a given exemplar without the paired data, has accomplished substantial advancements. In order to transfer the information from an exemplar to an input image, existing methods often use a normalization technique, e.g., adaptive instance normalization, that controls the channel-wise statistics of an input activation map at a particular layer, such as the mean and the variance. Meanwhile, style transfer approaches similar task to image translation by nature, demonstrated superior performance by using the higher-order statistics such as covariance among channels in representing a style. In detail, it works via whitening (given a zero-mean input feature, transforming its covariance matrix into the identity). followed by coloring (changing the covariance matrix of the whitened feature to those of the style feature). However, applying this approach in image translation is computationally intensive and error-prone due to the expensive time complexity and its non-trivial backpropagation. In response, this paper proposes an end-to-end approach tailored for image translation that efficiently approximates this transformation with our novel regularization methods. We further extend our approach to a group-wise form for memory and time efficiency as well as image quality. Extensive qualitative and quantitative experiments demonstrate that our proposed method is fast, both in training and inference, and highly effective in reflecting the style of an exemplar. Finally, our code is available at https://github.com/WonwoongCho/GDWCT.

Translating a morphology-rich, low-resource language like Latin poses significant challenges. This paper introduces a reproducible draft-based refinement pipeline that elevates open-source Large Language Models (LLMs) to a performance level statistically comparable to top-tier proprietary systems. Our method first uses a fine-tuned NLLB-1.3B model to generate a high-quality, structurally faithful draft. A zero-shot LLM (Llama-3.3 or Qwen3) then polishes this draft, a process that can be further enhanced by augmenting the context with retrieved out-context examples (RAG). We demonstrate the robustness of this approach on two distinct benchmarks: a standard in-domain test set (Rosenthal, 2023) and a new, challenging out-of-domain (OOD) set of 12th-century Latin letters (2025). Our central finding is that this open-source RAG system achieves performance statistically comparable to the GPT-5 baseline, without any task-specific LLM fine-tuning. We release the pipeline, the Chartres OOD set, and evaluation scripts and models to facilitate replicability and further research.

The popularity of transformer-based text embeddings calls for better statistical tools for measuring distributions of such embeddings. One such tool would be a method for ranking texts within a corpus by centrality, i.e. assigning each text a number signifying how representative that text is of the corpus as a whole. However, an intrinsic center-outward ordering of high-dimensional text representations is not trivial. A statistical depth is a function for ranking k-dimensional objects by measuring centrality with respect to some observed k-dimensional distribution. We adopt a statistical depth to measure distributions of transformer-based text embeddings, transformer-based text embedding (TTE) depth, and introduce the practical use of this depth for both modeling and distributional inference in NLP pipelines. We first define TTE depth and an associated rank sum test for determining whether two corpora differ significantly in embedding space. We then use TTE depth for the task of in-context learning prompt selection, showing that this approach reliably improves performance over statistical baseline approaches across six text classification tasks. Finally, we use TTE depth and the associated rank sum test to characterize the distributions of synthesized and human-generated corpora, showing that five recent synthetic data augmentation processes cause a measurable distributional shift away from associated human-generated text.

Learning causal graphs from multivariate time series is a ubiquitous challenge in all application domains dealing with time-dependent systems, such as in Earth sciences, biology, or engineering, to name a few. Recent developments for this causal discovery learning task have shown considerable skill, notably the specific time-series adaptations of the popular conditional independence-based learning framework. However, uncertainty estimation is challenging for conditional independence-based methods. Here, we introduce a novel bootstrap approach designed for time series causal discovery that preserves the temporal dependencies and lag structure. It can be combined with a range of time series causal discovery methods and provides a measure of confidence for the links of the time series graphs. Furthermore, next to confidence estimation, an aggregation, also called bagging, of the bootstrapped graphs by majority voting results in bagged causal discovery methods. In this work, we combine this approach with the state-of-the-art conditional-independence-based algorithm PCMCI+. With extensive numerical experiments we empirically demonstrate that, in addition to providing confidence measures for links, Bagged-PCMCI+ improves in precision and recall as compared to its base algorithm PCMCI+, at the cost of higher computational demands. These statistical performance improvements are especially pronounced in the more challenging settings (short time sample size, large number of variables, high autocorrelation). Our bootstrap approach can also be combined with other time series causal discovery algorithms and can be of considerable use in many real-world applications.

Semantic image segmentation, the process of classifying each pixel in an image into a particular class, plays an important role in many visual understanding systems. As the predominant criterion for evaluating the performance of statistical models, loss functions are crucial for shaping the development of deep learning-based segmentation algorithms and improving their overall performance. To aid researchers in identifying the optimal loss function for their particular application, this survey provides a comprehensive and unified review of 25 loss functions utilized in image segmentation. We provide a novel taxonomy and thorough review of how these loss functions are customized and leveraged in image segmentation, with a systematic categorization emphasizing their significant features and applications. Furthermore, to evaluate the efficacy of these methods in real-world scenarios, we propose unbiased evaluations of some distinct and renowned loss functions on established medical and natural image datasets. We conclude this review by identifying current challenges and unveiling future research opportunities. Finally, we have compiled the reviewed studies that have open-source implementations on our GitHub page.

The Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architecture is showing promising results in improving parameter sharing in multi-task learning (MTL) and in scaling high-capacity neural networks. State-of-the-art MoE models use a trainable sparse gate to select a subset of the experts for each input example. While conceptually appealing, existing sparse gates, such as Top-k, are not smooth. The lack of smoothness can lead to convergence and statistical performance issues when training with gradient-based methods. In this paper, we develop DSelect-k: a continuously differentiable and sparse gate for MoE, based on a novel binary encoding formulation. The gate can be trained using first-order methods, such as stochastic gradient descent, and offers explicit control over the number of experts to select. We demonstrate the effectiveness of DSelect-k on both synthetic and real MTL datasets with up to 128 tasks. Our experiments indicate that DSelect-k can achieve statistically significant improvements in prediction and expert selection over popular MoE gates. Notably, on a real-world, large-scale recommender system, DSelect-k achieves over 22% improvement in predictive performance compared to Top-k. We provide an open-source implementation of DSelect-k.

Current evaluation paradigms for large language models (LLMs) represent a critical blind spot in AI research--relying on opaque numerical metrics that conceal fundamental limitations in spatial reasoning while providing no intuitive understanding of model capabilities. This deficiency creates a dangerous disconnect between reported performance and practical abilities, particularly for applications requiring physical world understanding. We introduce LTD-Bench, a breakthrough benchmark that transforms LLM evaluation from abstract scores to directly observable visual outputs by requiring models to generate drawings through dot matrices or executable code. This approach makes spatial reasoning limitations immediately apparent even to non-experts, bridging the fundamental gap between statistical performance and intuitive assessment. LTD-Bench implements a comprehensive methodology with complementary generation tasks (testing spatial imagination) and recognition tasks (assessing spatial perception) across three progressively challenging difficulty levels, methodically evaluating both directions of the critical language-spatial mapping. Our extensive experiments with state-of-the-art models expose an alarming capability gap: even LLMs achieving impressive results on traditional benchmarks demonstrate profound deficiencies in establishing bidirectional mappings between language and spatial concept--a fundamental limitation that undermines their potential as genuine world models. Furthermore, LTD-Bench's visual outputs enable powerful diagnostic analysis, offering a potential approach to investigate model similarity.

We propose a novel approach to conformal prediction for generative language models (LMs). Standard conformal prediction produces prediction sets -- in place of single predictions -- that have rigorous, statistical performance guarantees. LM responses are typically sampled from the model's predicted distribution over the large, combinatorial output space of natural language. Translating this process to conformal prediction, we calibrate a stopping rule for sampling different outputs from the LM that get added to a growing set of candidates until we are confident that the output set is sufficient. Since some samples may be low-quality, we also simultaneously calibrate and apply a rejection rule for removing candidates from the output set to reduce noise. Similar to conformal prediction, we prove that the sampled set returned by our procedure contains at least one acceptable answer with high probability, while still being empirically precise (i.e., small) on average. Furthermore, within this set of candidate responses, we show that we can also accurately identify subsets of individual components -- such as phrases or sentences -- that are each independently correct (e.g., that are not "hallucinations"), again with statistical guarantees. We demonstrate the promise of our approach on multiple tasks in open-domain question answering, text summarization, and radiology report generation using different LM variants.

Visual anagrams are images that change appearance upon transformation, like flipping or rotation. With the advent of diffusion models, generating such optical illusions can be achieved by averaging noise across multiple views during the reverse denoising process. However, we observe two critical failure modes in this approach: (i) concept segregation, where concepts in different views are independently generated, which can not be considered a true anagram, and (ii) concept domination, where certain concepts overpower others. In this work, we cast the visual anagram generation problem in a multi-task learning setting, where different viewpoint prompts are analogous to different tasks,and derive denoising trajectories that align well across tasks simultaneously. At the core of our designed framework are two newly introduced techniques, where (i) an anti-segregation optimization strategy that promotes overlap in cross-attention maps between different concepts, and (ii) a noise vector balancing method that adaptively adjusts the influence of different tasks. Additionally, we observe that directly averaging noise predictions yields suboptimal performance because statistical properties may not be preserved, prompting us to derive a noise variance rectification method. Extensive qualitative and quantitative experiments demonstrate our method's superior ability to generate visual anagrams spanning diverse concepts.

The way people respond to messaging from public health organizations on social media can provide insight into public perceptions on critical health issues, especially during a global crisis such as COVID-19. It could be valuable for high-impact organizations such as the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) or the World Health Organization (WHO) to understand how these perceptions impact reception of messaging on health policy recommendations. We collect two datasets of public health messages and their responses from Twitter relating to COVID-19 and Vaccines, and introduce a predictive method which can be used to explore the potential reception of such messages. Specifically, we harness a generative model (GPT-2) to directly predict probable future responses and demonstrate how it can be used to optimize expected reception of important health guidance. Finally, we introduce a novel evaluation scheme with extensive statistical testing which allows us to conclude that our models capture the semantics and sentiment found in actual public health responses.

Multilingual contextual embeddings, such as multilingual BERT and XLM-RoBERTa, have proved useful for many multi-lingual tasks. Previous work probed the cross-linguality of the representations indirectly using zero-shot transfer learning on morphological and syntactic tasks. We instead investigate the language-neutrality of multilingual contextual embeddings directly and with respect to lexical semantics. Our results show that contextual embeddings are more language-neutral and, in general, more informative than aligned static word-type embeddings, which are explicitly trained for language neutrality. Contextual embeddings are still only moderately language-neutral by default, so we propose two simple methods for achieving stronger language neutrality: first, by unsupervised centering of the representation for each language and second, by fitting an explicit projection on small parallel data. Besides, we show how to reach state-of-the-art accuracy on language identification and match the performance of statistical methods for word alignment of parallel sentences without using parallel data.

Most popular benchmarks for comparing LLMs rely on a limited set of prompt templates, which may not fully capture the LLMs' abilities and can affect the reproducibility of results on leaderboards. Many recent works empirically verify prompt sensitivity and advocate for changes in LLM evaluation. In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating the performance distribution across many prompt variants instead of finding a single prompt to evaluate with. We introduce PromptEval, a method for estimating performance across a large set of prompts borrowing strength across prompts and examples to produce accurate estimates under practical evaluation budgets. The resulting distribution can be used to obtain performance quantiles to construct various robust performance metrics (e.g., top 95% quantile or median). We prove that PromptEval consistently estimates the performance distribution and demonstrate its efficacy empirically on three prominent LLM benchmarks: MMLU, BIG-bench Hard, and LMentry. For example, PromptEval can accurately estimate performance quantiles across 100 prompt templates on MMLU with a budget equivalent to two single-prompt evaluations. Our code and data can be found at https://github.com/felipemaiapolo/prompt-eval.

In this paper, we propose a novel neural network model called RNN Encoder-Decoder that consists of two recurrent neural networks (RNN). One RNN encodes a sequence of symbols into a fixed-length vector representation, and the other decodes the representation into another sequence of symbols. The encoder and decoder of the proposed model are jointly trained to maximize the conditional probability of a target sequence given a source sequence. The performance of a statistical machine translation system is empirically found to improve by using the conditional probabilities of phrase pairs computed by the RNN Encoder-Decoder as an additional feature in the existing log-linear model. Qualitatively, we show that the proposed model learns a semantically and syntactically meaningful representation of linguistic phrases.

Conformal prediction has shown spurring performance in constructing statistically rigorous prediction sets for arbitrary black-box machine learning models, assuming the data is exchangeable. However, even small adversarial perturbations during the inference can violate the exchangeability assumption, challenge the coverage guarantees, and result in a subsequent decline in empirical coverage. In this work, we propose a certifiably robust learning-reasoning conformal prediction framework (COLEP) via probabilistic circuits, which comprise a data-driven learning component that trains statistical models to learn different semantic concepts, and a reasoning component that encodes knowledge and characterizes the relationships among the trained models for logic reasoning. To achieve exact and efficient reasoning, we employ probabilistic circuits (PCs) within the reasoning component. Theoretically, we provide end-to-end certification of prediction coverage for COLEP in the presence of bounded adversarial perturbations. We also provide certified coverage considering the finite size of the calibration set. Furthermore, we prove that COLEP achieves higher prediction coverage and accuracy over a single model as long as the utilities of knowledge models are non-trivial. Empirically, we show the validity and tightness of our certified coverage, demonstrating the robust conformal prediction of COLEP on various datasets, including GTSRB, CIFAR10, and AwA2. We show that COLEP achieves up to 12% improvement in certified coverage on GTSRB, 9% on CIFAR-10, and 14% on AwA2.

Modern AI agents, driven by advances in large foundation models, promise to enhance our productivity and transform our lives by augmenting our knowledge and capabilities. To achieve this vision, AI agents must effectively plan, perform multi-step reasoning and actions, respond to novel observations, and recover from errors, to successfully complete complex tasks across a wide range of scenarios. In this work, we introduce Magentic-One, a high-performing open-source agentic system for solving such tasks. Magentic-One uses a multi-agent architecture where a lead agent, the Orchestrator, plans, tracks progress, and re-plans to recover from errors. Throughout task execution, the Orchestrator directs other specialized agents to perform tasks as needed, such as operating a web browser, navigating local files, or writing and executing Python code. We show that Magentic-One achieves statistically competitive performance to the state-of-the-art on three diverse and challenging agentic benchmarks: GAIA, AssistantBench, and WebArena. Magentic-One achieves these results without modification to core agent capabilities or to how they collaborate, demonstrating progress towards generalist agentic systems. Moreover, Magentic-One's modular design allows agents to be added or removed from the team without additional prompt tuning or training, easing development and making it extensible to future scenarios. We provide an open-source implementation of Magentic-One, and we include AutoGenBench, a standalone tool for agentic evaluation. AutoGenBench provides built-in controls for repetition and isolation to run agentic benchmarks in a rigorous and contained manner -- which is important when agents' actions have side-effects. Magentic-One, AutoGenBench and detailed empirical performance evaluations of Magentic-One, including ablations and error analysis are available at https://aka.ms/magentic-one

Large Language Models (LLMs) are susceptible to `jailbreaking' prompts, which can induce the generation of harmful content. This paper demonstrates that moderate WANDA pruning (Sun et al., 2023) can increase their resistance to such attacks without the need for fine-tuning, while maintaining performance on standard benchmarks. Our findings suggest that the benefits of pruning correlate with the initial safety levels of the model, indicating a regularizing effect of WANDA pruning. We introduce a dataset of 225 harmful tasks across five categories to systematically evaluate this safety enhancement. We argue that safety improvements can be understood through a regularization perspective. First, we show that pruning helps LLMs focus more effectively on task-relevant tokens within jailbreaking prompts. Then, we analyze the effects of pruning on the perplexity of malicious prompts before and after their integration into jailbreak templates. Finally, we demonstrate statistically significant performance improvements under domain shifts when applying WANDA to linear models.

As large language models are integrated into society, robustness toward a suite of prompts is increasingly important to maintain reliability in a high-variance environment.Robustness evaluations must comprehensively encapsulate the various settings in which a user may invoke an intelligent system. This paper proposes ASSERT, Automated Safety Scenario Red Teaming, consisting of three methods -- semantically aligned augmentation, target bootstrapping, and adversarial knowledge injection. For robust safety evaluation, we apply these methods in the critical domain of AI safety to algorithmically generate a test suite of prompts covering diverse robustness settings -- semantic equivalence, related scenarios, and adversarial. We partition our prompts into four safety domains for a fine-grained analysis of how the domain affects model performance. Despite dedicated safeguards in existing state-of-the-art models, we find statistically significant performance differences of up to 11% in absolute classification accuracy among semantically related scenarios and error rates of up to 19% absolute error in zero-shot adversarial settings, raising concerns for users' physical safety.

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) optimizes the policy on a previously collected dataset without any interactions with the environment, yet usually suffers from the distributional shift problem. To mitigate this issue, a typical solution is to impose a policy constraint on a policy improvement objective. However, existing methods generally adopt a ``one-size-fits-all'' practice, i.e., keeping only a single improvement-constraint balance for all the samples in a mini-batch or even the entire offline dataset. In this work, we argue that different samples should be treated with different policy constraint intensities. Based on this idea, a novel plug-in approach named Guided Offline RL (GORL) is proposed. GORL employs a guiding network, along with only a few expert demonstrations, to adaptively determine the relative importance of the policy improvement and policy constraint for every sample. We theoretically prove that the guidance provided by our method is rational and near-optimal. Extensive experiments on various environments suggest that GORL can be easily installed on most offline RL algorithms with statistically significant performance improvements.

Autonomous soundscape augmentation systems typically use trained models to pick optimal maskers to effect a desired perceptual change. While acoustic information is paramount to such systems, contextual information, including participant demographics and the visual environment, also influences acoustic perception. Hence, we propose modular modifications to an existing attention-based deep neural network, to allow early, mid-level, and late feature fusion of participant-linked, visual, and acoustic features. Ablation studies on module configurations and corresponding fusion methods using the ARAUS dataset show that contextual features improve the model performance in a statistically significant manner on the normalized ISO Pleasantness, to a mean squared error of 0.1194pm0.0012 for the best-performing all-modality model, against 0.1217pm0.0009 for the audio-only model. Soundscape augmentation systems can thereby leverage multimodal inputs for improved performance. We also investigate the impact of individual participant-linked factors using trained models to illustrate improvements in model explainability.

When evaluating large language models (LLMs) with multiple-choice question answering (MCQA), it is common to end the prompt with the string "Answer:" to facilitate automated answer extraction via next-token probabilities. However, there is no consensus on how to tokenize the space following the colon, often overlooked as a trivial choice. In this paper, we uncover accuracy differences of up to 11% due to this (seemingly irrelevant) tokenization variation as well as reshuffled model rankings, raising concerns about the reliability of LLM comparisons in prior work. Surprisingly, we are able to recommend one specific strategy -- tokenizing the space together with the answer letter -- as we observe consistent and statistically significant performance improvements. Additionally, it improves model calibration, enhancing the reliability of the model's confidence estimates. Our findings underscore the importance of careful evaluation design and highlight the need for standardized, transparent evaluation protocols to ensure reliable and comparable results.

Dense retrieval systems have proven to be effective across various benchmarks, but require substantial memory to store large search indices. Recent advances in embedding compression show that index sizes can be greatly reduced with minimal loss in ranking quality. However, existing studies often overlook the role of corpus complexity -- a critical factor, as recent work shows that both corpus size and document length strongly affect dense retrieval performance. In this paper, we introduce CoRECT (Controlled Retrieval Evaluation of Compression Techniques), a framework for large-scale evaluation of embedding compression methods, supported by a newly curated dataset collection. To demonstrate its utility, we benchmark eight representative types of compression methods. Notably, we show that non-learned compression achieves substantial index size reduction, even on up to 100M passages, with statistically insignificant performance loss. However, selecting the optimal compression method remains challenging, as performance varies across models. Such variability highlights the necessity of CoRECT to enable consistent comparison and informed selection of compression methods. All code, data, and results are available on GitHub and HuggingFace.

Large Language Model (LLM) agents demonstrate strong autonomy, but their stochastic behavior introduces unpredictable safety risks. Existing rule-based enforcement systems, such as AgentSpec, are reactive, intervening only when unsafe behavior is imminent or has occurred, lacking foresight for long-horizon dependencies. To overcome these limitations, we present a proactive runtime enforcement framework for LLM agents. The framework abstracts agent behaviors into symbolic states and learns a Discrete-Time Markov Chain (DTMC) from execution traces. At runtime, it predicts the probability of leading to undesired behaviors and intervenes before violations occur when the estimated risk exceeds a user-defined threshold. Designed to provide PAC-correctness guarantee, the framework achieves statistically reliable enforcement of agent safety. We evaluate the framework across two safety-critical domains: autonomous vehicles and embodied agents. It proactively enforces safety and maintains high task performance, outperforming existing methods.

In the real world, the frequency of occurrence of objects is naturally skewed forming long-tail class distributions, which results in poor performance on the statistically rare classes. A promising solution is to mine tail-class examples to balance the training dataset. However, mining tail-class examples is a very challenging task. For instance, most of the otherwise successful uncertainty-based mining approaches struggle due to distortion of class probabilities resulting from skewness in data. In this work, we propose an effective, yet simple, approach to overcome these challenges. Our framework enhances the subdued tail-class activations and, thereafter, uses a one-class data-centric approach to effectively identify tail-class examples. We carry out an exhaustive evaluation of our framework on three datasets spanning over two computer vision tasks. Substantial improvements in the minority-class mining and fine-tuned model's performance strongly corroborate the value of our proposed solution.

In this research, we have empirically investigated the key drivers affecting liquidity in equity markets. We illustrated how theoretical models, such as Kyle's model, of agents' interplay in the financial markets, are aligned with the phenomena observed in publicly available trades and quotes data. Specifically, we confirmed that for small signed order-flows, the price impact grows linearly with increase in the order-flow imbalance. We have, further, implemented a machine learning algorithm to forecast market impact given a signed order-flow. Our findings suggest that machine learning models can be used in estimation of financial variables; and predictive accuracy of such learning algorithms can surpass the performance of traditional statistical approaches. Understanding the determinants of price impact is crucial for several reasons. From a theoretical stance, modelling the impact provides a statistical measure of liquidity. Practitioners adopt impact models as a pre-trade tool to estimate expected transaction costs and optimize the execution of their strategies. This further serves as a post-trade valuation benchmark as suboptimal execution can significantly deteriorate a portfolio performance. More broadly, the price impact reflects the balance of liquidity across markets. This is of central importance to regulators as it provides an all-encompassing explanation of the correlation between market design and systemic risk, enabling regulators to design more stable and efficient markets.

In order to build self-consistent personalized dialogue agents, previous research has mostly focused on textual persona that delivers personal facts or personalities. However, to fully describe the multi-faceted nature of persona, image modality can help better reveal the speaker's personal characteristics and experiences in episodic memory (Rubin et al., 2003; Conway, 2009). In this work, we extend persona-based dialogue to the multimodal domain and make two main contributions. First, we present the first multimodal persona-based dialogue dataset named MPCHAT, which extends persona with both text and images to contain episodic memories. Second, we empirically show that incorporating multimodal persona, as measured by three proposed multimodal persona-grounded dialogue tasks (i.e., next response prediction, grounding persona prediction, and speaker identification), leads to statistically significant performance improvements across all tasks. Thus, our work highlights that multimodal persona is crucial for improving multimodal dialogue comprehension, and our MPCHAT serves as a high-quality resource for this research.

Language models often show little to no improvement (i.e., "saturation") when trained via vanilla supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on data similar to what they saw in their training set (e.g., MATH). We introduce a new fine-tuning strategy, STAT, to train such a student model by using the metacognition ability of a stronger large language model (LLM) as the teacher. The teacher uses the task dataset to create a list of skills needed for the task, and then labels each data point with its required skills (Didolkar et al., 2024). By monitoring the student's answers, the teacher creates a Missing-Skill-Profile for the student, tracking how often they failed to apply each skill in their responses. We use this idea to build a modified training set in one of two ways. In STAT-Sel, the teacher uses an existing set of training examples but adaptively reweights them according to the Missing-Skill-Profile. In STAT-Syn, the teacher synthesizes additional examples involving missing skills. Across extensive experiments on Llama and Qwen models, our methods yield improvements of up to 7.5% on MATH, whereas SFT provides only limited gains. Furthermore, STAT enhances performance on out-of-distribution benchmarks (e.g., AIME24/25, AMC23, etc.) by an average of 4.6%. Crucially, we find that STAT is complementary to RL via GRPO (Shao et al., 2024): after the model is improved using STAT to address skill gaps, GRPO continues to add further gains. We conclude that skill-targeted adaptive training should broadly improve current training pipelines. Our code is available at: https://github.com/princeton-pli/STAT.

Estimating the performance difficulty of a musical score is crucial in music education for adequately designing the learning curriculum of the students. Although the Music Information Retrieval community has recently shown interest in this task, existing approaches mainly use machine-readable scores, leaving the broader case of sheet music images unaddressed. Based on previous works involving sheet music images, we use a mid-level representation, bootleg score, describing notehead positions relative to staff lines coupled with a transformer model. This architecture is adapted to our task by introducing an encoding scheme that reduces the encoded sequence length to one-eighth of the original size. In terms of evaluation, we consider five datasets -- more than 7500 scores with up to 9 difficulty levels -- , two of them particularly compiled for this work. The results obtained when pretraining the scheme on the IMSLP corpus and fine-tuning it on the considered datasets prove the proposal's validity, achieving the best-performing model with a balanced accuracy of 40.34\% and a mean square error of 1.33. Finally, we provide access to our code, data, and models for transparency and reproducibility.

Traditionally, data selection has been studied in settings where all samples from prospective sources are fully revealed to a machine learning developer. However, in practical data exchange scenarios, data providers often reveal only a limited subset of samples before an acquisition decision is made. Recently, there have been efforts to fit scaling laws that predict model performance at any size and data source composition using the limited available samples. However, these scaling functions are black-box, computationally expensive to fit, highly susceptible to overfitting, or/and difficult to optimize for data selection. This paper proposes a framework called <projektor>, which predicts model performance and supports data selection decisions based on partial samples of prospective data sources. Our approach distinguishes itself from existing work by introducing a novel *two-stage* performance inference process. In the first stage, we leverage the Optimal Transport distance to predict the model's performance for any data mixture ratio within the range of disclosed data sizes. In the second stage, we extrapolate the performance to larger undisclosed data sizes based on a novel parameter-free mapping technique inspired by neural scaling laws. We further derive an efficient gradient-based method to select data sources based on the projected model performance. Evaluation over a diverse range of applications demonstrates that <projektor> significantly improves existing performance scaling approaches in terms of both the accuracy of performance inference and the computation costs associated with constructing the performance predictor. Also, <projektor> outperforms by a wide margin in data selection effectiveness compared to a range of other off-the-shelf solutions.

Transferring learned patterns from pretrained neural language models has been shown to significantly improve effectiveness across a variety of language-based tasks, meanwhile further tuning on intermediate tasks has been demonstrated to provide additional performance benefits, provided the intermediate task is sufficiently related to the target task. However, how to identify related tasks is an open problem, and brute-force searching effective task combinations is prohibitively expensive. Hence, the question arises, are we able to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of tasks with no training examples through selective fine-tuning? In this paper, we explore statistical measures that approximate the divergence between domain representations as a means to estimate whether tuning using one task pair will exhibit performance benefits over tuning another. This estimation can then be used to reduce the number of task pairs that need to be tested by eliminating pairs that are unlikely to provide benefits. Through experimentation over 58 tasks and over 6,600 task pair combinations, we demonstrate that statistical measures can distinguish effective task pairs, and the resulting estimates can reduce end-to-end runtime by up to 40%.

What makes a good Large Language Model (LLM)? That it performs well on the relevant benchmarks -- which hopefully measure, with some validity, the presence of capabilities that are also challenged in real application. But what makes the model perform well? What gives a model its abilities? We take a recently introduced type of benchmark that is meant to challenge capabilities in a goal-directed, agentive context through self-play of conversational games, and analyse how performance develops as a function of model characteristics like number of parameters, or type of training. We find that while there is a clear relationship between number of parameters and performance, there is still a wide spread of performance points within a given size bracket, which is to be accounted for by training parameters such as fine-tuning data quality and method. From a more practical angle, we also find a certain degree of unpredictability about performance across access methods, possible due to unexposed sampling parameters, and a, very welcome, performance stability against at least moderate weight quantisation during inference.

The rapid advancements in computing dramatically increase the scale and cost of training Large Language Models (LLMs). Accurately predicting downstream task performance prior to model training is crucial for efficient resource allocation, yet remains challenging due to two primary constraints: (1) the "emergence phenomenon", wherein downstream performance metrics become meaningful only after extensive training, which limits the ability to use smaller models for prediction; (2) Uneven task difficulty distributions and the absence of consistent scaling laws, resulting in substantial metric variability. Existing performance prediction methods suffer from limited accuracy and reliability, thereby impeding the assessment of potential LLM capabilities. To address these challenges, we propose a Clustering-On-Difficulty (COD) downstream performance prediction framework. COD first constructs a predictable support subset by clustering tasks based on difficulty features, strategically excluding non-emergent and non-scalable clusters. The scores on the selected subset serve as effective intermediate predictors of downstream performance on the full evaluation set. With theoretical support, we derive a mapping function that transforms performance metrics from the predictable subset to the full evaluation set, thereby ensuring accurate extrapolation of LLM downstream performance. The proposed method has been applied to predict performance scaling for a 70B LLM, providing actionable insights for training resource allocation and assisting in monitoring the training process. Notably, COD achieves remarkable predictive accuracy on the 70B LLM by leveraging an ensemble of small models, demonstrating an absolute mean deviation of 1.36% across eight important LLM evaluation benchmarks.

Deep reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms are predominantly evaluated by comparing their relative performance on a large suite of tasks. Most published results on deep RL benchmarks compare point estimates of aggregate performance such as mean and median scores across tasks, ignoring the statistical uncertainty implied by the use of a finite number of training runs. Beginning with the Arcade Learning Environment (ALE), the shift towards computationally-demanding benchmarks has led to the practice of evaluating only a small number of runs per task, exacerbating the statistical uncertainty in point estimates. In this paper, we argue that reliable evaluation in the few run deep RL regime cannot ignore the uncertainty in results without running the risk of slowing down progress in the field. We illustrate this point using a case study on the Atari 100k benchmark, where we find substantial discrepancies between conclusions drawn from point estimates alone versus a more thorough statistical analysis. With the aim of increasing the field's confidence in reported results with a handful of runs, we advocate for reporting interval estimates of aggregate performance and propose performance profiles to account for the variability in results, as well as present more robust and efficient aggregate metrics, such as interquartile mean scores, to achieve small uncertainty in results. Using such statistical tools, we scrutinize performance evaluations of existing algorithms on other widely used RL benchmarks including the ALE, Procgen, and the DeepMind Control Suite, again revealing discrepancies in prior comparisons. Our findings call for a change in how we evaluate performance in deep RL, for which we present a more rigorous evaluation methodology, accompanied with an open-source library rliable, to prevent unreliable results from stagnating the field.

Performance bugs challenge software development, degrading performance and wasting computational resources. Software developers invest substantial effort in addressing these issues. Curating these performance bugs can offer valuable insights to the software engineering research community, aiding in developing new mitigation strategies. However, there is no large-scale open-source performance bugs dataset available. To bridge this gap, we propose PerfCurator, a repository miner that collects performance bug-related commits at scale. PerfCurator employs PcBERT-KD, a 125M parameter BERT model trained to classify performance bug-related commits. Our evaluation shows PcBERT-KD achieves accuracy comparable to 7 billion parameter LLMs but with significantly lower computational overhead, enabling cost-effective deployment on CPU clusters. Utilizing PcBERT-KD as the core component, we deployed PerfCurator on a 50-node CPU cluster to mine GitHub repositories. This extensive mining operation resulted in the construction of a large-scale dataset comprising 114K performance bug-fix commits in Python, 217.9K in C++, and 76.6K in Java. Our results demonstrate that this large-scale dataset significantly enhances the effectiveness of data-driven performance bug detection systems.

Sports competitions are widely researched in computer and social science, with the goal of understanding how players act under uncertainty. While there is an abundance of computational work on player metrics prediction based on past performance, very few attempts to incorporate out-of-game signals have been made. Specifically, it was previously unclear whether linguistic signals gathered from players' interviews can add information which does not appear in performance metrics. To bridge that gap, we define text classification tasks of predicting deviations from mean in NBA players' in-game actions, which are associated with strategic choices, player behavior and risk, using their choice of language prior to the game. We collected a dataset of transcripts from key NBA players' pre-game interviews and their in-game performance metrics, totalling in 5,226 interview-metric pairs. We design neural models for players' action prediction based on increasingly more complex aspects of the language signals in their open-ended interviews. Our models can make their predictions based on the textual signal alone, or on a combination with signals from past-performance metrics. Our text-based models outperform strong baselines trained on performance metrics only, demonstrating the importance of language usage for action prediction. Moreover, the models that employ both textual input and past-performance metrics produced the best results. Finally, as neural networks are notoriously difficult to interpret, we propose a method for gaining further insight into what our models have learned. Particularly, we present an LDA-based analysis, where we interpret model predictions in terms of correlated topics. We find that our best performing textual model is most associated with topics that are intuitively related to each prediction task and that better models yield higher correlation with more informative topics.

This paper provides a detailed analysis of the NeuroPiano dataset, which comprise 104 audio recordings of student piano performances accompanied with 2255 textual feedback and ratings given by professional pianists. We offer a statistical overview of the dataset, focusing on the standardization of annotations and inter-annotator agreement across 12 evaluative questions concerning performance quality. We also explore the predictive relationship between audio features and teacher ratings via machine learning, as well as annotations provided for text analysis of the responses.

Probability estimation models play an important role in various fields, such as weather forecasting, recommendation systems, and sports analysis. Among several models estimating probabilities, it is difficult to evaluate which model gives reliable probabilities since the ground-truth probabilities are not available. The win probability estimation model for esports, which calculates the win probability under a certain game state, is also one of the fields being actively studied in probability estimation. However, most of the previous works evaluated their models using accuracy, a metric that only can measure the performance of discrimination. In this work, we firstly investigate the Brier score and the Expected Calibration Error (ECE) as a replacement of accuracy used as a performance evaluation metric for win probability estimation models in esports field. Based on the analysis, we propose a novel metric called Balance score which is a simple yet effective metric in terms of six good properties that probability estimation metric should have. Under the general condition, we also found that the Balance score can be an effective approximation of the true expected calibration error which has been imperfectly approximated by ECE using the binning technique. Extensive evaluations using simulation studies and real game snapshot data demonstrate the promising potential to adopt the proposed metric not only for the win probability estimation model for esports but also for evaluating general probability estimation models.

Guided by the belief of the scaling law, large language models (LLMs) have achieved impressive performance in recent years. However, scaling law only gives a qualitative estimation of loss, which is influenced by various factors such as model architectures, data distributions, tokenizers, and computation precision. Thus, estimating the real performance of LLMs with different training settings rather than loss may be quite useful in practical development. In this article, we present an empirical equation named "Performance Law" to directly predict the MMLU score of an LLM, which is a widely used metric to indicate the general capability of LLMs in real-world conversations and applications. Based on only a few key hyperparameters of the LLM architecture and the size of training data, we obtain a quite accurate MMLU prediction of various LLMs with diverse sizes and architectures developed by different organizations in different years. Performance law can be used to guide the choice of LLM architecture and the effective allocation of computational resources without extensive experiments.

We investigate the predictability of large language model (LLM) capabilities: given records of past experiments using different model families, numbers of parameters, tasks, and numbers of in-context examples, can we accurately predict LLM performance on new experiment configurations? Answering this question has practical implications for LLM users (e.g., deciding which models to try), developers (e.g., prioritizing evaluation on representative tasks), and the research community (e.g., identifying hard-to-predict capabilities that warrant further investigation). We study the performance prediction problem on experiment records from BIG-bench. On a random train-test split, an MLP-based predictor achieves an R^2 score greater than 95%, indicating the presence of learnable patterns within the experiment records. We then formulate the problem of searching for "small-bench," an informative subset of BIG-bench tasks from which the performance on the full set can be maximally recovered. We find a subset as informative as BIG-bench Hard for evaluating new model families, while being 3times smaller. Additionally, we find competitive subsets by clustering task representations learned by our MLP-based predictor and selecting tasks close to cluster centroids, highlighting the importance of task diversity in constructing "small-bench."

Methods for neural network hyperparameter optimization and meta-modeling are computationally expensive due to the need to train a large number of model configurations. In this paper, we show that standard frequentist regression models can predict the final performance of partially trained model configurations using features based on network architectures, hyperparameters, and time-series validation performance data. We empirically show that our performance prediction models are much more effective than prominent Bayesian counterparts, are simpler to implement, and are faster to train. Our models can predict final performance in both visual classification and language modeling domains, are effective for predicting performance of drastically varying model architectures, and can even generalize between model classes. Using these prediction models, we also propose an early stopping method for hyperparameter optimization and meta-modeling, which obtains a speedup of a factor up to 6x in both hyperparameter optimization and meta-modeling. Finally, we empirically show that our early stopping method can be seamlessly incorporated into both reinforcement learning-based architecture selection algorithms and bandit based search methods. Through extensive experimentation, we empirically show our performance prediction models and early stopping algorithm are state-of-the-art in terms of prediction accuracy and speedup achieved while still identifying the optimal model configurations.

Machine learning models often experience performance degradation post-deployment due to shifts in data distribution. It is challenging to assess model's performance accurately when labels are missing or delayed. Existing proxy methods, such as drift detection, fail to measure the effects of these shifts adequately. To address this, we introduce a new method, Probabilistic Adaptive Performance Estimation (PAPE), for evaluating classification models on unlabeled data that accurately quantifies the impact of covariate shift on model performance. It is model and data-type agnostic and works for various performance metrics. Crucially, PAPE operates independently of the original model, relying only on its predictions and probability estimates, and does not need any assumptions about the nature of the covariate shift, learning directly from data instead. We tested PAPE on tabular data using over 900 dataset-model combinations created from US census data, assessing its performance against multiple benchmarks. Overall, PAPE provided more accurate performance estimates than other evaluated methodologies.

The rapid proliferation of Large Language Models (LLMs) and diverse specialized benchmarks necessitates a shift from fragmented, task-specific metrics to a holistic, competitive ranking system that effectively aggregates performance across multiple ability dimensions. Primarily using static scoring, current evaluation methods are fundamentally limited. They struggle to determine the proper mix ratio across diverse benchmarks, and critically, they fail to capture a model's dynamic competitive fitness or its vulnerability when confronted with sequential, high-stakes tasks. To address this, we introduce the novel Competitive Swiss-System Dynamics (CSD) framework. CSD simulates a multi-round, sequential contest where models are dynamically paired across a curated sequence of benchmarks based on their accumulated win-loss record. And Monte Carlo Simulation (N=100,000 iterations) is used to approximate the statistically robust Expected Win Score (E[S_m]), which eliminates the noise of random pairing and early-round luck. Furthermore, we implement a Failure Sensitivity Analysis by parameterizing the per-round elimination quantity (T_k), which allows us to profile models based on their risk appetite--distinguishing between robust generalists and aggressive specialists. We demonstrate that CSD provides a more nuanced and context-aware ranking than traditional aggregate scoring and static pairwise models, representing a vital step towards risk-informed, next-generation LLM evaluation.

This study investigates the consistency of feedback ratings generated by OpenAI's GPT-4, a state-of-the-art artificial intelligence language model, across multiple iterations, time spans and stylistic variations. The model rated responses to tasks within the Higher Education (HE) subject domain of macroeconomics in terms of their content and style. Statistical analysis was conducted in order to learn more about the interrater reliability, consistency of the ratings across iterations and the correlation between ratings in terms of content and style. The results revealed a high interrater reliability with ICC scores ranging between 0.94 and 0.99 for different timespans, suggesting that GPT-4 is capable of generating consistent ratings across repetitions with a clear prompt. Style and content ratings show a high correlation of 0.87. When applying a non-adequate style the average content ratings remained constant, while style ratings decreased, which indicates that the large language model (LLM) effectively distinguishes between these two criteria during evaluation. The prompt used in this study is furthermore presented and explained. Further research is necessary to assess the robustness and reliability of AI models in various use cases.

OpenAI's ChatGPT Atlas introduces new capabilities for web interaction, enabling the model to analyze webpages, process user intents, and execute cursor and keyboard inputs directly within the browser. While its capacity for information retrieval tasks has been demonstrated, its performance in dynamic, interactive environments remains less explored. In this study, we conduct an early evaluation of Atlas's web interaction capabilities using browser-based games as test scenarios, including Google's T-Rex Runner, Sudoku, Flappy Bird, and Stein.world. We employ in-game performance scores as quantitative metrics to assess performance across different task types. Our results show that Atlas performs strongly in logical reasoning tasks like Sudoku, completing puzzles significantly faster than human baselines, but struggles substantially in real-time games requiring precise timing and motor control, often failing to progress beyond initial obstacles. These findings suggest that while Atlas demonstrates capable analytical processing, there remain notable limitations in dynamic web environments requiring real-time interaction. The website of our project can be found at https://atlas-game-eval.github.io.

Highly-informed Expressive Performance Rendering (EPR) systems transform music scores with rich musical annotations into human-like expressive performance MIDI files. While these systems have achieved promising results, the availability of detailed music scores is limited compared to MIDI files and are less flexible to work with using a digital audio workstation (DAW). Recent advancements in low-informed EPR systems offer a more accessible alternative by directly utilizing score-derived MIDI as input, but these systems often exhibit suboptimal performance. Meanwhile, existing works are evaluated with diverse automatic metrics and data formats, hindering direct objective comparisons between EPR systems. In this study, we introduce Peransformer, a transformer-based low-informed EPR system designed to bridge the gap between low-informed and highly-informed EPR systems. Our approach incorporates a score-aware discriminator that leverages the underlying score-derived MIDI files and is trained on a score-to-performance paired, note-to-note aligned MIDI dataset. Experimental results demonstrate that Peransformer achieves state-of-the-art performance among low-informed systems, as validated by subjective evaluations. Furthermore, we extend existing automatic evaluation metrics for EPR systems and introduce generalized EPR metrics (GEM), enabling more direct, accurate, and reliable comparisons across EPR systems.

Machine learning for time-series forecasting remains a key area of research. Despite successful application of many machine learning techniques, relating computational efficiency to forecast error remains an under-explored domain. This paper addresses this topic through a series of real-time experiments to quantify the relationship between computational cost and forecast error using meteorological nowcasting as an example use-case. We employ a variety of popular regression techniques (XGBoost, FC-MLP, Transformer, and LSTM) for multi-horizon, short-term forecasting of three variables (temperature, wind speed, and cloud cover) for multiple locations. During a 5-day live experiment, 4000 data sources were streamed for training and inferencing 144 models per hour. These models were parameterized to explore forecast error for two computational cost minimization methods: a novel auto-adaptive data reduction technique (Variance Horizon) and a performance-based concept drift-detection mechanism. Forecast error of all model variations were benchmarked in real-time against a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model. Performance was assessed using classical and novel evaluation metrics. Results indicate that using the Variance Horizon reduced computational usage by more than 50\%, while increasing between 0-15\% in error. Meanwhile, performance-based retraining reduced computational usage by up to 90\% while also improving forecast error by up to 10\%. Finally, the combination of both the Variance Horizon and performance-based retraining outperformed other model configurations by up to 99.7\% when considering error normalized to computational usage.

We present MixtureVitae, an open-access pretraining corpus built to minimize legal risk while providing strong model performance. MixtureVitae follows a risk-mitigated sourcing strategy that combines public-domain and permissively licensed text (e.g., CC-BY/Apache) with carefully justified low-risk additions (e.g., government works and EU TDM-eligible sources), alongside targeted instruction, reasoning and synthetic data with documented provenance. We detail a transparent, multi-stage pipeline for license-aware filtering, safety and quality screening, and domain-aware mixing, and we release the dataset and curation recipes to support reproducible research. In controlled experiments using the open-sci-ref training protocol (fixed architectures at 130M/400M/1.3B/1.7B parameters; training budgets of 50B and 300B tokens), models trained on MixtureVitae consistently outperform other permissive datasets across a suite of standard benchmarks, and at the 1.7B/300B setting they surpass FineWeb-Edu and approach DCLM in the later stages of training. Performance is particularly strong on math/code and competitive on QA tasks. These results demonstrate that permissive-first, risk-mitigated data provides a practical and legally mitigated foundation for training capable LLMs, reducing reliance on indiscriminate web scraping without sacrificing competitiveness. Code: https://github.com/ontocord/mixturevitae

We introduce OpenRAND, a C++17 library aimed at facilitating reproducible scientific research through the generation of statistically robust and yet replicable random numbers. OpenRAND accommodates single and multi-threaded applications on CPUs and GPUs and offers a simplified, user-friendly API that complies with the C++ standard's random number engine interface. It is portable: it functions seamlessly as a lightweight, header-only library, making it adaptable to a wide spectrum of software and hardware platforms. It is statistically robust: a suite of built-in tests ensures no pattern exists within single or multiple streams. Despite the simplicity and portability, it is remarkably performant-matching and sometimes even outperforming native libraries by a significant margin. Our tests, including a Brownian walk simulation, affirm its reproducibility and highlight its computational efficiency, outperforming CUDA's cuRAND by up to 1.8 times.

An obstacle to artificial general intelligence is set by continual learning of multiple tasks of different nature. Recently, various heuristic tricks, both from machine learning and from neuroscience angles, were proposed, but they lack a unified theory ground. Here, we focus on continual learning in single-layered and multi-layered neural networks of binary weights. A variational Bayesian learning setting is thus proposed, where the neural networks are trained in a field-space, rather than gradient-ill-defined discrete-weight space, and furthermore, weight uncertainty is naturally incorporated, and modulates synaptic resources among tasks. From a physics perspective, we translate the variational continual learning into Franz-Parisi thermodynamic potential framework, where previous task knowledge acts as a prior and a reference as well. We thus interpret the continual learning of the binary perceptron in a teacher-student setting as a Franz-Parisi potential computation. The learning performance can then be analytically studied with mean-field order parameters, whose predictions coincide with numerical experiments using stochastic gradient descent methods. Based on the variational principle and Gaussian field approximation of internal preactivations in hidden layers, we also derive the learning algorithm considering weight uncertainty, which solves the continual learning with binary weights using multi-layered neural networks, and performs better than the currently available metaplasticity algorithm. Our proposed principled frameworks also connect to elastic weight consolidation, weight-uncertainty modulated learning, and neuroscience inspired metaplasticity, providing a theory-grounded method for the real-world multi-task learning with deep networks.

Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) have gained significant popularity among researchers as a powerful tool for understanding unknown distributions based on limited samples. This popularity stems partly from their impressive performance and partly from their ability to provide meaningful feature representations in the latent space. Wasserstein Autoencoders (WAEs), a variant of VAEs, aim to not only improve model efficiency but also interpretability. However, there has been limited focus on analyzing their statistical guarantees. The matter is further complicated by the fact that the data distributions to which WAEs are applied - such as natural images - are often presumed to possess an underlying low-dimensional structure within a high-dimensional feature space, which current theory does not adequately account for, rendering known bounds inefficient. To bridge the gap between the theory and practice of WAEs, in this paper, we show that WAEs can learn the data distributions when the network architectures are properly chosen. We show that the convergence rates of the expected excess risk in the number of samples for WAEs are independent of the high feature dimension, instead relying only on the intrinsic dimension of the data distribution.

This paper studies the prediction of a target z from a pair of random variables (x,y), where the ground-truth predictor is additive E[z mid x,y] = f_star(x) +g_{star}(y). We study the performance of empirical risk minimization (ERM) over functions f+g, f in F and g in G, fit on a given training distribution, but evaluated on a test distribution which exhibits covariate shift. We show that, when the class F is "simpler" than G (measured, e.g., in terms of its metric entropy), our predictor is more resilient to heterogenous covariate shifts in which the shift in x is much greater than that in y. These results rely on a novel H\"older style inequality for the Dudley integral which may be of independent interest. Moreover, we corroborate our theoretical findings with experiments demonstrating improved resilience to shifts in "simpler" features across numerous domains.

We consider the problem of real-time reconstruction of urban air pollution maps. The task is challenging due to the heterogeneous sources of available data, the scarcity of direct measurements, the presence of noise, and the large surfaces that need to be considered. In this work, we introduce different reconstruction methods based on posing the problem on city graphs. Our strategies can be classified as fully data-driven, physics-driven, or hybrid, and we combine them with super-learning models. The performance of the methods is tested in the case of the inner city of Paris, France.

Recognizing human activities from sensor data is a vital task in various domains, but obtaining diverse and labeled sensor data remains challenging and costly. In this paper, we propose an unsupervised statistical feature-guided diffusion model for sensor-based human activity recognition. The proposed method aims to generate synthetic time-series sensor data without relying on labeled data, addressing the scarcity and annotation difficulties associated with real-world sensor data. By conditioning the diffusion model on statistical information such as mean, standard deviation, Z-score, and skewness, we generate diverse and representative synthetic sensor data. We conducted experiments on public human activity recognition datasets and compared the proposed method to conventional oversampling methods and state-of-the-art generative adversarial network methods. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method can improve the performance of human activity recognition and outperform existing techniques.

Automated piano performance evaluation traditionally relies on symbolic (MIDI) representations, which capture note-level information but miss the acoustic nuances that characterize expressive playing. I propose using pre-trained audio foundation models, specifically MuQ and MERT, to predict 19 perceptual dimensions of piano performance quality. Using synthesized audio from PercePiano MIDI files (rendered via Pianoteq), I compare audio and symbolic approaches under controlled conditions where both derive from identical source data. The best model, MuQ layers 9-12 with Pianoteq soundfont augmentation, achieves R^2 = 0.537 (95% CI: [0.465, 0.575]), representing a 55% improvement over the symbolic baseline (R^2 = 0.347). Statistical analysis confirms significance (p < 10^-25) with audio outperforming symbolic on all 19 dimensions. I validate the approach through cross-soundfont generalization (R^2 = 0.534 +/- 0.075), difficulty correlation with an external dataset (rho = 0.623), and multi-performer consistency analysis. Analysis of audio-symbolic fusion reveals high error correlation (r = 0.738), explaining why fusion provides minimal benefit: audio representations alone are sufficient. I release the complete training pipeline, pretrained models, and inference code.

Given a sample of size N, it is often useful to select a subsample of smaller size n<N to be used for statistical estimation or learning. Such a data selection step is useful to reduce the requirements of data labeling and the computational complexity of learning. We assume to be given N unlabeled samples {{boldsymbol x}_i}_{ile N}, and to be given access to a `surrogate model' that can predict labels y_i better than random guessing. Our goal is to select a subset of the samples, to be denoted by {{boldsymbol x}_i}_{iin G}, of size |G|=n<N. We then acquire labels for this set and we use them to train a model via regularized empirical risk minimization. By using a mixture of numerical experiments on real and synthetic data, and mathematical derivations under low- and high- dimensional asymptotics, we show that: (i)~Data selection can be very effective, in particular beating training on the full sample in some cases; (ii)~Certain popular choices in data selection methods (e.g. unbiased reweighted subsampling, or influence function-based subsampling) can be substantially suboptimal.

Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) were recently proposed as a new paradigm for machine learning. Instead of training the network to an observed training set, a fixed model is pre-trained offline on small, simulated training sets from a variety of tasks. The pre-trained model is then used to infer class probabilities in-context on fresh training sets with arbitrary size and distribution. Empirically, PFNs achieve state-of-the-art performance on tasks with similar size to the ones used in pre-training. Surprisingly, their accuracy further improves when passed larger data sets during inference. This article establishes a theoretical foundation for PFNs and illuminates the statistical mechanisms governing their behavior. While PFNs are motivated by Bayesian ideas, a purely frequentistic interpretation of PFNs as pre-tuned, but untrained predictors explains their behavior. A predictor's variance vanishes if its sensitivity to individual training samples does and the bias vanishes only if it is appropriately localized around the test feature. The transformer architecture used in current PFN implementations ensures only the former. These findings shall prove useful for designing architectures with favorable empirical behavior.

In this paper we present our work on a case study between Statistical Machien Transaltion (SMT) and Rule-Based Machine Translation (RBMT) systems on English-Indian langugae and Indian to Indian langugae perspective. Main objective of our study is to make a five way performance compariosn; such as, a) SMT and RBMT b) SMT on English-Indian langugae c) RBMT on English-Indian langugae d) SMT on Indian to Indian langugae perspective e) RBMT on Indian to Indian langugae perspective. Through a detailed analysis we describe the Rule Based and the Statistical Machine Translation system developments and its evaluations. Through a detailed error analysis, we point out the relative strengths and weaknesses of both systems. The observations based on our study are: a) SMT systems outperforms RBMT b) In the case of SMT, English to Indian language MT systmes performs better than Indian to English langugae MT systems c) In the case of RBMT, English to Indian langugae MT systems perofrms better than Indian to Englsih Language MT systems d) SMT systems performs better for Indian to Indian language MT systems compared to RBMT. Effectively, we shall see that even with a small amount of training corpus a statistical machine translation system has many advantages for high quality domain specific machine translation over that of a rule-based counterpart.

We propose a new benchmark corpus to be used for measuring progress in statistical language modeling. With almost one billion words of training data, we hope this benchmark will be useful to quickly evaluate novel language modeling techniques, and to compare their contribution when combined with other advanced techniques. We show performance of several well-known types of language models, with the best results achieved with a recurrent neural network based language model. The baseline unpruned Kneser-Ney 5-gram model achieves perplexity 67.6; a combination of techniques leads to 35% reduction in perplexity, or 10% reduction in cross-entropy (bits), over that baseline. The benchmark is available as a code.google.com project; besides the scripts needed to rebuild the training/held-out data, it also makes available log-probability values for each word in each of ten held-out data sets, for each of the baseline n-gram models.

Chain-of-thought (CoT) prompting has become a widely used strategy for working with large language and multimodal models. While CoT has been shown to improve performance across many tasks, determining the settings in which it is effective remains an ongoing effort. In particular, it is still an open question in what settings CoT systematically reduces model performance. In this paper, we seek to identify the characteristics of tasks where CoT reduces performance by drawing inspiration from cognitive psychology, looking at cases where (i) verbal thinking or deliberation hurts performance in humans, and (ii) the constraints governing human performance generalize to language models. Three such cases are implicit statistical learning, visual recognition, and classifying with patterns containing exceptions. In extensive experiments across all three settings, we find that a diverse collection of state-of-the-art models exhibit significant drop-offs in performance (e.g., up to 36.3% absolute accuracy for OpenAI o1-preview compared to GPT-4o) when using inference-time reasoning compared to zero-shot counterparts. We also identify three tasks that satisfy condition (i) but not (ii), and find that while verbal thinking reduces human performance in these tasks, CoT retains or increases model performance. Overall, our results show that while there is not an exact parallel between the cognitive processes of models and those of humans, considering cases where thinking has negative consequences for human performance can help us identify settings where it negatively impacts models. By connecting the literature on human deliberation with evaluations of CoT, we offer a new tool that can be used in understanding the impact of prompt choices and inference-time reasoning.

Sparse mixture of experts (SMoE) offers an appealing solution to scale up the model complexity beyond the mean of increasing the network's depth or width. However, we argue that effective SMoE training remains challenging because of the suboptimal routing process where experts that perform computation do not directly contribute to the routing process. In this work, we propose competition, a novel mechanism to route tokens to experts with the highest neural response. Theoretically, we show that the competition mechanism enjoys a better sample efficiency than the traditional softmax routing. Furthermore, we develop CompeteSMoE, a simple yet effective algorithm to train large language models by deploying a router to learn the competition policy, thus enjoying strong performances at a low training overhead. Our extensive empirical evaluations on both the visual instruction tuning and language pre-training tasks demonstrate the efficacy, robustness, and scalability of CompeteSMoE compared to state-of-the-art SMoE strategies. We have made the implementation available at: https://github.com/Fsoft-AIC/CompeteSMoE. This work is an improved version of the previous study at arXiv:2402.02526

This study investigates GPT-4's assessment of its performance in healthcare applications. A simple prompting technique was used to prompt the LLM with questions taken from the United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) questionnaire and it was tasked to evaluate its confidence score before posing the question and after asking the question. The questionnaire was categorized into two groups-questions with feedback (WF) and questions with no feedback(NF) post-question. The model was asked to provide absolute and relative confidence scores before and after each question. The experimental findings were analyzed using statistical tools to study the variability of confidence in WF and NF groups. Additionally, a sequential analysis was conducted to observe the performance variation for the WF and NF groups. Results indicate that feedback influences relative confidence but doesn't consistently increase or decrease it. Understanding the performance of LLM is paramount in exploring its utility in sensitive areas like healthcare. This study contributes to the ongoing discourse on the reliability of AI, particularly of LLMs like GPT-4, within healthcare, offering insights into how feedback mechanisms might be optimized to enhance AI-assisted medical education and decision support.

The lack of self-correcting codes hiders the development of boson sampling to be large-scale and robust. Therefore, it is important to know the noise levels in order to cautiously demonstrate the quantum computational advantage or realize certain tasks. Based on those statistical benchmark methods such as the correlators and the clouds, which are initially proposed to discriminate boson sampling and other mockups, we quantificationally evaluate noises of photon partial distinguishability and photon loss compensated by dark counts. This is feasible owing to the fact that the output distribution unbalances are suppressed by noises, which are actually results of multi-photon interferences. This is why the evaluation performance is better when high order correlators or corresponding clouds are employed. Our results indicate that the statistical benchmark methods can also work in the task of evaluating noises of boson sampling.

Rigorous performance evaluation is essential for developing robust algorithms for high-throughput computational chemistry. Traditional benchmarking, however, often struggles to account for system-specific variability, making it difficult to form actionable conclusions. We present a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework that rigorously quantifies performance metrics and their uncertainty, enabling a nuanced comparison of algorithmic strategies. We apply this framework to analyze the Dimer method, comparing Conjugate Gradient (CG) and L-BFGS rotation optimizers, with and without the removal of external rotations, across a benchmark of 500 molecular systems. Our analysis confirms that CG offers higher overall robustness than L-BFGS in this context. While the theoretically-motivated removal of external rotations led to higher computational cost (>40% more energy and force calls) for most systems in this set, our models also reveal a subtle interplay, hinting that this feature may improve the reliability of the L-BFGS optimizer. Rather than identifying a single superior method, our findings support the design of adaptive "chain of methods" workflows. This work showcases how a robust statistical paradigm can move beyond simple performance rankings to inform the intelligent, context-dependent application of computational chemistry methods.

Background: AI-based classification models are essential for improving lung cancer diagnosis. However, the relative performance of lesion-level versus chest-region models in internal and external datasets remains unclear. Purpose: This study evaluates the performance of lesion-level and chest-region models for lung cancer classification, comparing their effectiveness across internal Duke Lung Nodule Dataset 2024 (DLND24) and external (LUNA16, NLST) datasets, with a focus on subgroup analyses by demographics, histology, and imaging characteristics. Materials and Methods: Two AI models were trained: one using lesion-centric patches (64,64,64) and the other using chest-region patches (512,512,8). Internal validation was conducted on DLND24, while external validation utilized LUNA16 and NLST datasets. The models performances were assessed using AUC-ROC, with subgroup analyses for demographic, clinical, and imaging factors. Statistical comparisons were performed using DeLongs test. Gradient-based visualizations and probability distribution were further used for analysis. Results: The lesion-level model consistently outperformed the chest-region model across datasets. In internal validation, the lesion-level model achieved an AUC of 0.71(CI: 0.61-0.81), compared to 0.68(0.57-0.77) for the chest-region model. External validation showed similar trends, with AUCs of 0.90(0.87-0.92) and 0.81(0.79-0.82) on LUNA16 and NLST, respectively. Subgroup analyses revealed significant advantages for lesion-level models in certain histological subtypes (adenocarcinoma) and imaging conditions (CT manufacturers). Conclusion: Lesion-level models demonstrate superior classification performance, especially for external datasets and challenging subgroups, suggesting their clinical utility for precision lung cancer diagnostics.

The growing dependence on machine learning in real-world applications emphasizes the importance of understanding and ensuring its safety. Backdoor attacks pose a significant security risk due to their stealthy nature and potentially serious consequences. Such attacks involve embedding triggers within a learning model with the intention of causing malicious behavior when an active trigger is present while maintaining regular functionality without it. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of any backdoor attack incorporating a constant trigger, by establishing tight lower and upper boundaries for the performance of the compromised model on both clean and backdoor test data. The developed theory answers a series of fundamental but previously underexplored problems, including (1) what are the determining factors for a backdoor attack's success, (2) what is the direction of the most effective backdoor attack, and (3) when will a human-imperceptible trigger succeed. Our derived understanding applies to both discriminative and generative models. We also demonstrate the theory by conducting experiments using benchmark datasets and state-of-the-art backdoor attack scenarios.

Label noise is prevalent in machine learning datasets. It is crucial to identify and remove label noise because models trained on noisy data can have substantially reduced accuracy and generalizability. Most existing label noise detection approaches are designed for classification tasks, and data cleaning for outcome prediction analysis is relatively unexplored. Inspired by the fluctuations in performance across different folds in cross-validation, we propose Repeated Cross-Validations for label noise estimation (ReCoV) to address this gap. ReCoV constructs a noise histogram that ranks the noise level of samples based on a large number of cross-validations by recording sample IDs in each worst-performing fold. We further propose three approaches for identifying noisy samples based on noise histograms to address increasingly complex noise distributions. We show that ReCoV outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms for label cleaning in a classification task benchmark. More importantly, we show that removing ReCoV-identified noisy samples in two medical imaging outcome prediction datasets significantly improves model performance on test sets. As a statistical approach that does not rely on hyperparameters, noise distributions, or model structures, ReCoV is compatible with any machine learning analysis.

Learning unnormalized statistical models (e.g., energy-based models) is computationally challenging due to the complexity of handling the partition function. To eschew this complexity, noise-contrastive estimation~(NCE) has been proposed by formulating the objective as the logistic loss of the real data and the artificial noise. However, as found in previous works, NCE may perform poorly in many tasks due to its flat loss landscape and slow convergence. In this paper, we study it a direct approach for optimizing the negative log-likelihood of unnormalized models from the perspective of compositional optimization. To tackle the partition function, a noise distribution is introduced such that the log partition function can be written as a compositional function whose inner function can be estimated with stochastic samples. Hence, the objective can be optimized by stochastic compositional optimization algorithms. Despite being a simple method, we demonstrate that it is more favorable than NCE by (1) establishing a fast convergence rate and quantifying its dependence on the noise distribution through the variance of stochastic estimators; (2) developing better results for one-dimensional Gaussian mean estimation by showing our objective has a much favorable loss landscape and hence our method enjoys faster convergence; (3) demonstrating better performance on multiple applications, including density estimation, out-of-distribution detection, and real image generation.

The software package Volna-OP2 is a robust and efficient code capable of simulating the complete life cycle of a tsunami whilst harnessing the latest High Performance Computing (HPC) architectures. In this paper, a comprehensive error analysis and scalability study of the GPU version of the code is presented. A novel decomposition of the numerical errors into the dispersion and dissipation components is explored. Most tsunami codes exhibit amplitude smearing and/or phase lagging/leading, so the decomposition shown here is a new approach and novel tool for explaining these occurrences. It is the first time that the errors of a tsunami code have been assessed in this manner. To date, Volna-OP2 has been widely used by the tsunami modelling community. In particular its computational efficiency has allowed various sensitivity analyses and uncertainty quantification studies. Due to the number of simulations required, there is always a trade-off between accuracy and runtime when carrying out these statistical studies. The analysis presented in this paper will guide the user towards an acceptable level of accuracy within a given runtime.

The statistical analysis of large scale legal corpus can provide valuable legal insights. For such analysis one needs to (1) select a subset of the corpus using document retrieval tools, (2) structuralize text using information extraction (IE) systems, and (3) visualize the data for the statistical analysis. Each process demands either specialized tools or programming skills whereas no comprehensive unified "no-code" tools have been available. Especially for IE, if the target information is not predefined in the ontology of the IE system, one needs to build their own system. Here we provide NESTLE, a no code tool for large-scale statistical analysis of legal corpus. With NESTLE, users can search target documents, extract information, and visualize the structured data all via the chat interface with accompanying auxiliary GUI for the fine-level control. NESTLE consists of three main components: a search engine, an end-to-end IE system, and a Large Language Model (LLM) that glues the whole components together and provides the chat interface. Powered by LLM and the end-to-end IE system, NESTLE can extract any type of information that has not been predefined in the IE system opening up the possibility of unlimited customizable statistical analysis of the corpus without writing a single line of code. The use of the custom end-to-end IE system also enables faster and low-cost IE on large scale corpus. We validate our system on 15 Korean precedent IE tasks and 3 legal text classification tasks from LEXGLUE. The comprehensive experiments reveal NESTLE can achieve GPT-4 comparable performance by training the internal IE module with 4 human-labeled, and 192 LLM-labeled examples. The detailed analysis provides the insight on the trade-off between accuracy, time, and cost in building such system.

Current foundation model for photoplethysmography (PPG) signals is challenged by the intrinsic redundancy and noise of the signal. Standard masked modeling often yields trivial solutions while contrastive methods lack morphological precision. To address these limitations, we propose a Statistical-prior Informed Generative Masking Architecture (SIGMA-PPG), a generative foundation model featuring a Prior-Guided Adversarial Masking mechanism, where a reinforcement learning-driven teacher leverages statistical priors to create challenging learning paths that prevent overfitting to noise. We also incorporate a semantic consistency constraint via vector quantization to ensure that physiologically identical waveforms (even those altered by recording artifacts or minor perturbations) map to shared indices. This enhances codebook semantic density and eliminates redundant feature structures. Pre-trained on over 120,000 hours of data, SIGMA-PPG achieves superior average performance compared to five state-of-the-art baselines across 12 diverse downstream tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/ZonghengGuo/SigmaPPG.

We study the problem of temporal-difference-based policy evaluation in reinforcement learning. In particular, we analyse the use of a distributional reinforcement learning algorithm, quantile temporal-difference learning (QTD), for this task. We reach the surprising conclusion that even if a practitioner has no interest in the return distribution beyond the mean, QTD (which learns predictions about the full distribution of returns) may offer performance superior to approaches such as classical TD learning, which predict only the mean return, even in the tabular setting.

Machine learning models can make critical errors that are easily hidden within vast amounts of data. Such errors often run counter to rules based on human intuition. However, rules based on human knowledge are challenging to scale or to even formalize. We thereby seek to infer statistical rules from the data and quantify the extent to which a model has learned them. We propose a framework SQRL that integrates logic-based methods with statistical inference to derive these rules from a model's training data without supervision. We further show how to adapt models at test time to reduce rule violations and produce more coherent predictions. SQRL generates up to 300K rules over datasets from vision, tabular, and language settings. We uncover up to 158K violations of those rules by state-of-the-art models for classification, object detection, and data imputation. Test-time adaptation reduces these violations by up to 68.7% with relative performance improvement up to 32%. SQRL is available at https://github.com/DebugML/sqrl.

Progress in large language models is constrained by an evaluation bottleneck: build a benchmark, evaluate models and settings, then iterate. We therefore ask a simple question: can we forecast outcomes before running any experiments? We study text-only performance forecasting: estimating a model's score from a redacted task description and intended configuration, with no access to dataset instances. To support systematic study, we curate PRECOG, a corpus of redacted description-performance pairs spanning diverse tasks, domains, and metrics. Experiments show the task is challenging but feasible: models equipped with a retrieval module that excludes source papers achieve moderate prediction performance with well-calibrated uncertainty, reaching mean absolute error as low as 8.7 on the Accuracy subset at high-confidence thresholds. Our analysis indicates that stronger reasoning models engage in diverse, iterative querying, whereas current open-source models lag and often skip retrieval or gather evidence with limited diversity. We further test a zero-leakage setting, forecasting on newly released datasets or experiments before their papers are indexed, where GPT-5 with built-in web search still attains nontrivial prediction accuracy. Overall, our corpus and analyses offer an initial step toward open-ended anticipatory evaluation, supporting difficulty estimation and smarter experiment prioritization.

Vibration-based condition monitoring systems are receiving increasing attention due to their ability to accurately identify different conditions by capturing dynamic features over a broad frequency range. However, there is little research on clustering approaches in vibration data and the resulting solutions are often optimized for a single data set. In this work, we present an extensive comparison of the clustering algorithms K-means clustering, OPTICS, and Gaussian mixture model clustering (GMM) applied to statistical features extracted from the time and frequency domains of vibration data sets. Furthermore, we investigate the influence of feature combinations, feature selection using principal component analysis (PCA), and the specified number of clusters on the performance of the clustering algorithms. We conducted this comparison in terms of a grid search using three different benchmark data sets. Our work showed that averaging (Mean, Median) and variance-based features (Standard Deviation, Interquartile Range) performed significantly better than shape-based features (Skewness, Kurtosis). In addition, K-means outperformed GMM slightly for these data sets, whereas OPTICS performed significantly worse. We were also able to show that feature combinations as well as PCA feature selection did not result in any significant performance improvements. With an increase in the specified number of clusters, clustering algorithms performed better, although there were some specific algorithmic restrictions.

A key challenge in neural architecture search (NAS) is quickly inferring the predictive performance of a broad spectrum of networks to discover statistically accurate and computationally efficient ones. We refer to this task as model performance inference (MPI). The current practice for efficient MPI is gradient-based methods that leverage the gradients of a network at initialization to infer its performance. However, existing gradient-based methods rely only on heuristic metrics and lack the necessary theoretical foundations to consolidate their designs. We propose GradSign, an accurate, simple, and flexible metric for model performance inference with theoretical insights. The key idea behind GradSign is a quantity {\Psi} to analyze the optimization landscape of different networks at the granularity of individual training samples. Theoretically, we show that both the network's training and true population losses are proportionally upper-bounded by {\Psi} under reasonable assumptions. In addition, we design GradSign, an accurate and simple approximation of {\Psi} using the gradients of a network evaluated at a random initialization state. Evaluation on seven NAS benchmarks across three training datasets shows that GradSign generalizes well to real-world networks and consistently outperforms state-of-the-art gradient-based methods for MPI evaluated by Spearman's {\rho} and Kendall's Tau. Additionally, we integrate GradSign into four existing NAS algorithms and show that the GradSign-assisted NAS algorithms outperform their vanilla counterparts by improving the accuracies of best-discovered networks by up to 0.3%, 1.1%, and 1.0% on three real-world tasks.

Anomaly detection in supercomputers is a very difficult problem due to the big scale of the systems and the high number of components. The current state of the art for automated anomaly detection employs Machine Learning methods or statistical regression models in a supervised fashion, meaning that the detection tool is trained to distinguish among a fixed set of behaviour classes (healthy and unhealthy states). We propose a novel approach for anomaly detection in High Performance Computing systems based on a Machine (Deep) Learning technique, namely a type of neural network called autoencoder. The key idea is to train a set of autoencoders to learn the normal (healthy) behaviour of the supercomputer nodes and, after training, use them to identify abnormal conditions. This is different from previous approaches which where based on learning the abnormal condition, for which there are much smaller datasets (since it is very hard to identify them to begin with). We test our approach on a real supercomputer equipped with a fine-grained, scalable monitoring infrastructure that can provide large amount of data to characterize the system behaviour. The results are extremely promising: after the training phase to learn the normal system behaviour, our method is capable of detecting anomalies that have never been seen before with a very good accuracy (values ranging between 88% and 96%).