Daily Papers

In this research, we have empirically investigated the key drivers affecting liquidity in equity markets. We illustrated how theoretical models, such as Kyle's model, of agents' interplay in the financial markets, are aligned with the phenomena observed in publicly available trades and quotes data. Specifically, we confirmed that for small signed order-flows, the price impact grows linearly with increase in the order-flow imbalance. We have, further, implemented a machine learning algorithm to forecast market impact given a signed order-flow. Our findings suggest that machine learning models can be used in estimation of financial variables; and predictive accuracy of such learning algorithms can surpass the performance of traditional statistical approaches. Understanding the determinants of price impact is crucial for several reasons. From a theoretical stance, modelling the impact provides a statistical measure of liquidity. Practitioners adopt impact models as a pre-trade tool to estimate expected transaction costs and optimize the execution of their strategies. This further serves as a post-trade valuation benchmark as suboptimal execution can significantly deteriorate a portfolio performance. More broadly, the price impact reflects the balance of liquidity across markets. This is of central importance to regulators as it provides an all-encompassing explanation of the correlation between market design and systemic risk, enabling regulators to design more stable and efficient markets.

We propose a machine learning-based extension of the classical binomial option pricing model that incorporates key market microstructure effects. Traditional models assume frictionless markets, overlooking empirical features such as bid-ask spreads, discrete price movements, and serial return correlations. Our framework augments the binomial tree with path-dependent transition probabilities estimated via Random Forest classifiers trained on high-frequency market data. This approach preserves no-arbitrage conditions while embedding real-world trading dynamics into the pricing model. Using 46,655 minute-level observations of SPY from January to June 2025, we achieve an AUC of 88.25% in forecasting one-step price movements. Order flow imbalance is identified as the most influential predictor, contributing 43.2% to feature importance. After resolving time-scaling inconsistencies in tree construction, our model yields option prices that deviate by 13.79% from Black-Scholes benchmarks, highlighting the impact of microstructure on fair value estimation. While computational limitations restrict the model to short-term derivatives, our results offer a robust, data-driven alternative to classical pricing methods grounded in empirical market behavior.

Class imbalance poses a fundamental challenge in machine learning, frequently leading to unreliable classification performance. While prior methods focus on data- or loss-reweighting schemes, we view imbalance as a data condition that amplifies Clever Hans (CH) effects by underspecification of minority classes. In a counterfactual explanations-based approach, we propose to leverage Explainable AI to jointly identify and eliminate CH effects emerging under imbalance. Our method achieves competitive classification performance on three datasets and demonstrates how CH effects emerge under imbalance, a perspective largely overlooked by existing approaches.

Long-tailed learning has garnered increasing attention due to its practical significance. Among the various approaches, the fine-tuning paradigm has gained considerable interest with the advent of foundation models. However, most existing methods primarily focus on leveraging knowledge from these models, overlooking the inherent biases introduced by the imbalanced training data they rely on. In this paper, we examine how such imbalances from pre-training affect long-tailed downstream tasks. Specifically, we find the imbalance biases inherited in foundation models on downstream task as parameter imbalance and data imbalance. During fine-tuning, we observe that parameter imbalance plays a more critical role, while data imbalance can be mitigated using existing re-balancing strategies. Moreover, we find that parameter imbalance cannot be effectively addressed by current re-balancing techniques, such as adjusting the logits, during training, unlike data imbalance. To tackle both imbalances simultaneously, we build our method on causal learning and view the incomplete semantic factor as the confounder, which brings spurious correlations between input samples and labels. To resolve the negative effects of this, we propose a novel backdoor adjustment method that learns the true causal effect between input samples and labels, rather than merely fitting the correlations in the data. Notably, we achieve an average performance increase of about 1.67% on each dataset.

Class imbalance (CI) is a longstanding problem in machine learning, slowing down training and reducing performances. Although empirical remedies exist, it is often unclear which ones work best and when, due to the lack of an overarching theory. We address a common case of imbalance, that of anomaly (or outlier) detection. We provide a theoretical framework to analyze, interpret and address CI. It is based on an exact solution of the teacher-student perceptron model, through replica theory. Within this framework, one can distinguish several sources of CI: either intrinsic, train or test imbalance. Our analysis reveals that the optimal train imbalance is generally different from 50%, with a non trivial dependence on the intrinsic imbalance, the abundance of data and on the noise in the learning. Moreover, there is a crossover between a small noise training regime where results are independent of the noise level to a high noise regime where performances quickly degrade with noise. Our results challenge some of the conventional wisdom on CI and offer practical guidelines to address it.

Node clustering is a powerful tool in the analysis of networks. We introduce a graph neural network framework, named DIGRAC, to obtain node embeddings for directed networks in a self-supervised manner, including a novel probabilistic imbalance loss, which can be used for network clustering. Here, we propose directed flow imbalance measures, which are tightly related to directionality, to reveal clusters in the network even when there is no density difference between clusters. In contrast to standard approaches in the literature, in this paper, directionality is not treated as a nuisance, but rather contains the main signal. DIGRAC optimizes directed flow imbalance for clustering without requiring label supervision, unlike existing graph neural network methods, and can naturally incorporate node features, unlike existing spectral methods. Extensive experimental results on synthetic data, in the form of directed stochastic block models, and real-world data at different scales, demonstrate that our method, based on flow imbalance, attains state-of-the-art results on directed graph clustering when compared against 10 state-of-the-art methods from the literature, for a wide range of noise and sparsity levels, graph structures, and topologies, and even outperforms supervised methods.

We model Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) token routing as a congestion game with a single effective parameter, the congestion coefficient gamma_eff, that quantifies the balance-quality tradeoff. Tracking gamma_eff across training checkpoints of two open-source MoE models, OLMoE-1B-7B (20 checkpoints, with dense sampling in the surge region) and OpenMoE-8B (6 checkpoints), reveals a three-phase trajectory: a surge phase where the router learns to balance load (gamma_eff: 14 to 36-39, peaking in the step 30K-40K region), a stabilization phase where experts specialize under steady balance (B_0: 2.4 to 2.3, steps 100K-400K), and a relaxation phase where the router trades balance for quality as experts differentiate (gamma_eff: 27 to 9, steps 400K-1.2M). This non-monotone trajectory, invisible to post-hoc analysis of converged models, reveals that early MoE training prioritizes balance while late training prioritizes quality. The theoretical framework is honest about its limits: the single-type equilibrium reduces to temperature-scaled softmax (held-out L1: MFG = 0.199 vs. softmax = 0.200). The game is not a better predictor; it reveals what the temperature means and, critically, how that temperature evolves. We complement the dynamics with an effective congestion decomposition, a multi-type extension that improves load prediction via token clustering on all 16 layers (mean: 30%), scope diagnostics (K/M, epsilon_l), and robustness verification across four independent quality estimators (r >= 0.89). All confidence intervals are from bootstrap resampling over 50 independent text batches.

Acceleration of graph applications on GPUs has found large interest due to the ubiquitous use of graph processing in various domains. The inherent irregularity in graph applications leads to several challenges for parallelization. A key challenge, which we address in this paper, is that of load-imbalance. If the work-assignment to threads uses node-based graph partitioning, it can result in skewed task-distribution, leading to poor load-balance. In contrast, if the work-assignment uses edge-based graph partitioning, the load-balancing is better, but the memory requirement is relatively higher. This makes it unsuitable for large graphs. In this work, we propose three techniques for improved load-balancing of graph applications on GPUs. Each technique brings in unique advantages, and a user may have to employ a specific technique based on the requirement. Using Breadth First Search and Single Source Shortest Paths as our processing kernels, we illustrate the effectiveness of each of the proposed techniques in comparison to the existing node-based and edge-based mechanisms.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models are typically pre-trained with explicit load-balancing constraints to ensure statistically balanced expert routing. Despite this, we observe that even well-trained MoE models exhibit significantly imbalanced routing. This behavior is arguably natural-and even desirable - as imbalanced routing allows models to concentrate domain-specific knowledge within a subset of experts. Expert parallelism (EP) is designed to scale MoE models by distributing experts across multiple devices, but with a less-discussed assumption of balanced routing. Under extreme imbalance, EP can funnel a disproportionate number of tokens to a small number of experts, leading to compute- and memory-bound failures on overloaded devices during post-training or inference, where explicit load balancing is often inapplicable. We propose Least-Loaded Expert Parallelism (LLEP), a novel EP algorithm that dynamically reroutes excess tokens and associated expert parameters from overloaded devices to underutilized ones. This ensures that all devices complete their workloads within the minimum collective latency while respecting memory constraints. Across different model scales, LLEP achieves up to 5x speedup and 4x reduction in peak memory usage compared to standard EP. This enables faster and higher-throughput post-training and inference, with ~1.9x faster for gpt-oss-120b. We support our method with extensive theoretical analysis and comprehensive empirical evaluations, including ablation studies. These results illuminate key trade-offs and enable a principled framework for hardware-specific hyper-parameter tuning to achieve optimal performance.

With the expansion of data availability, machine learning (ML) has achieved remarkable breakthroughs in both academia and industry. However, imbalanced data distributions are prevalent in various types of raw data and severely hinder the performance of ML by biasing the decision-making processes. To deepen the understanding of imbalanced data and facilitate the related research and applications, this survey systematically analyzes various real-world data formats and concludes existing researches for different data formats into four distinct categories: data re-balancing, feature representation, training strategy, and ensemble learning. This structured analysis helps researchers comprehensively understand the pervasive nature of imbalance across diverse data formats, thereby paving a clearer path toward achieving specific research goals. We provide an overview of relevant open-source libraries, spotlight current challenges, and offer novel insights aimed at fostering future advancements in this critical area of study.

Normalizing Flows (NFs) have been established as a principled framework for generative modeling. Standard NFs consist of a forward process and a reverse process: the forward process maps data to noise, while the reverse process generates samples by inverting it. Typical NF forward transformations are constrained by explicit invertibility, ensuring that the reverse process can serve as their exact analytic inverse. Recent developments in TARFlow and its variants have revitalized NF methods by combining Transformers and autoregressive flows, but have also exposed causal decoding as a major bottleneck. In this work, we introduce Bidirectional Normalizing Flow (BiFlow), a framework that removes the need for an exact analytic inverse. BiFlow learns a reverse model that approximates the underlying noise-to-data inverse mapping, enabling more flexible loss functions and architectures. Experiments on ImageNet demonstrate that BiFlow, compared to its causal decoding counterpart, improves generation quality while accelerating sampling by up to two orders of magnitude. BiFlow yields state-of-the-art results among NF-based methods and competitive performance among single-evaluation ("1-NFE") methods. Following recent encouraging progress on NFs, we hope our work will draw further attention to this classical paradigm.

Data imbalance is a common problem in machine learning that can have a critical effect on the performance of a model. Various solutions exist but their impact on the convergence of the learning dynamics is not understood. Here, we elucidate the significant negative impact of data imbalance on learning, showing that the learning curves for minority and majority classes follow sub-optimal trajectories when training with a gradient-based optimizer. This slowdown is related to the imbalance ratio and can be traced back to a competition between the optimization of different classes. Our main contribution is the analysis of the convergence of full-batch (GD) and stochastic gradient descent (SGD), and of variants that renormalize the contribution of each per-class gradient. We find that GD is not guaranteed to decrease the loss for each class but that this problem can be addressed by performing a per-class normalization of the gradient. With SGD, class imbalance has an additional effect on the direction of the gradients: the minority class suffers from a higher directional noise, which reduces the effectiveness of the per-class gradient normalization. Our findings not only allow us to understand the potential and limitations of strategies involving the per-class gradients, but also the reason for the effectiveness of previously used solutions for class imbalance such as oversampling.

Existing machine learning methods for causal inference usually estimate quantities expressed via the mean of potential outcomes (e.g., average treatment effect). However, such quantities do not capture the full information about the distribution of potential outcomes. In this work, we estimate the density of potential outcomes after interventions from observational data. For this, we propose a novel, fully-parametric deep learning method called Interventional Normalizing Flows. Specifically, we combine two normalizing flows, namely (i) a nuisance flow for estimating nuisance parameters and (ii) a target flow for parametric estimation of the density of potential outcomes. We further develop a tractable optimization objective based on a one-step bias correction for efficient and doubly robust estimation of the target flow parameters. As a result, our Interventional Normalizing Flows offer a properly normalized density estimator. Across various experiments, we demonstrate that our Interventional Normalizing Flows are expressive and highly effective, and scale well with both sample size and high-dimensional confounding. To the best of our knowledge, our Interventional Normalizing Flows are the first proper fully-parametric, deep learning method for density estimation of potential outcomes.

Disaggregated inference has become an essential framework that separates the prefill (P) and decode (D) stages in large language model inference to improve throughput. However, the KV cache transfer faces significant delays between prefill and decode nodes. The block-wise calling method and discontinuous KV cache memory allocation increase the number of calls to the transmission kernel. Additionally, existing frameworks often fix the roles of P and D nodes, leading to computational imbalances. In this paper, we propose FlowKV, a novel disaggregated inference framework, which reduces the average transmission latency of KV cache by 96%, from 0.944s to 0.053s, almost eliminating the transfer time relative to the total request latency by optimizing the KV cache transfer. FlowKV introduces the Load-Aware Scheduler for balanced request scheduling and flexible PD node allocation. This design maximizes hardware resource utilization, achieving peak system throughput across various scenarios, including normal, computational imbalance, and extreme overload conditions. Experimental results demonstrate that FlowKV significantly accelerates inference by 15.2%-48.9% on LongBench dataset compared to the baseline and supports applications with heterogeneous GPUs.

Flow models are effective at progressively generating realistic images, but they generally struggle to capture long-range dependencies during the generation process as they compress all the information from previous time steps into a single corrupted image. To address this limitation, we propose integrating autoregressive modeling -- known for its excellence in modeling complex, high-dimensional joint probability distributions -- into flow models. During training, at each step, we construct causally-ordered sequences by sampling multiple images from the same semantic category and applying different levels of noise, where images with higher noise levels serve as causal predecessors to those with lower noise levels. This design enables the model to learn broader category-level variations while maintaining proper causal relationships in the flow process. During generation, the model autoregressively conditions the previously generated images from earlier denoising steps, forming a contextual and coherent generation trajectory. Additionally, we design a customized hybrid linear attention mechanism tailored to our modeling approach to enhance computational efficiency. Our approach, termed ARFlow, under 400k training steps, achieves 14.08 FID scores on ImageNet at 128 * 128 without classifier-free guidance, reaching 4.34 FID with classifier-free guidance 1.5, significantly outperforming the previous flow-based model SiT's 9.17 FID. Extensive ablation studies demonstrate the effectiveness of our modeling strategy and chunk-wise attention design.

Motivated by neuroscientific and clinical applications, we empirically examine whether observational measures of information flow can suggest interventions. We do so by performing experiments on artificial neural networks in the context of fairness in machine learning, where the goal is to induce fairness in the system through interventions. Using our recently developed M-information flow framework, we measure the flow of information about the true label (responsible for accuracy, and hence desirable), and separately, the flow of information about a protected attribute (responsible for bias, and hence undesirable) on the edges of a trained neural network. We then compare the flow magnitudes against the effect of intervening on those edges by pruning. We show that pruning edges that carry larger information flows about the protected attribute reduces bias at the output to a greater extent. This demonstrates that M-information flow can meaningfully suggest targets for interventions, answering the title's question in the affirmative. We also evaluate bias-accuracy tradeoffs for different intervention strategies, to analyze how one might use estimates of desirable and undesirable information flows (here, accuracy and bias flows) to inform interventions that preserve the former while reducing the latter.

Serving numerous users and requests concurrently requires good fairness in Large Language Models (LLMs) serving system. This ensures that, at the same cost, the system can meet the Service Level Objectives (SLOs) of more users , such as time to first token (TTFT) and time between tokens (TBT), rather than allowing a few users to experience performance far exceeding the SLOs. To achieve better fairness, the preemption-based scheduling policy dynamically adjusts the priority of each request to maintain balance during runtime. However, existing systems tend to overly prioritize throughput, overlooking the overhead caused by preemption-induced context switching, which is crucial for maintaining fairness through priority adjustments. In this work, we identify three main challenges that result in this overhead. 1) Inadequate I/O utilization. 2) GPU idleness. 3) Unnecessary I/O transmission during multi-turn conversations. Our key insight is that the block-based KV cache memory policy in existing systems, while achieving near-zero memory waste, leads to discontinuity and insufficient granularity in the KV cache memory. To respond, we introduce FastSwitch, a fairness-aware serving system that not only aligns with existing KV cache memory allocation policy but also mitigates context switching overhead. Our evaluation shows that FastSwitch outperforms the state-of-the-art LLM serving system vLLM with speedups of 1.4-11.2x across different tail TTFT and TBT.

Flow matching (FM) is a general framework for defining probability paths via Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) to transform between noise and data samples. Recent approaches attempt to straighten these flow trajectories to generate high-quality samples with fewer function evaluations, typically through iterative rectification methods or optimal transport solutions. In this paper, we introduce Consistency Flow Matching (Consistency-FM), a novel FM method that explicitly enforces self-consistency in the velocity field. Consistency-FM directly defines straight flows starting from different times to the same endpoint, imposing constraints on their velocity values. Additionally, we propose a multi-segment training approach for Consistency-FM to enhance expressiveness, achieving a better trade-off between sampling quality and speed. Preliminary experiments demonstrate that our Consistency-FM significantly improves training efficiency by converging 4.4x faster than consistency models and 1.7x faster than rectified flow models while achieving better generation quality. Our code is available at: https://github.com/YangLing0818/consistency_flow_matching

Modern data parallel (DP) training favors collective communication over parameter servers (PS) for its simplicity and efficiency under balanced workloads. However, the balanced workload assumption no longer holds in large language model (LLM) post-training due to the high variance in sequence lengths. Under imbalanced workloads, collective communication creates synchronization barriers, leading to under-utilization of devices with smaller workloads. This change in training dynamics calls for a revisit of the PS paradigm for its robustness to such imbalance. We propose On-Demand Communication (ODC), which adapts PS into Fully Sharded Data Parallel (FSDP) by replacing collective all-gather and reduce-scatter with direct point-to-point communication. Compared to FSDP, ODC reduces the synchronization barrier from once per layer to once per minibatch and decouples the workload on each device so that faster workers are not stalled. It also enables simpler and more effective load balancing at the minibatch level. Across diverse LLM post-training tasks, ODC consistently improves device utilization and training throughput, achieving up to a 36\% speedup over standard FSDP. These results demonstrate that ODC is a superior fit for the prevalent imbalanced workloads in LLM post-training. Our implementation of ODC and integration with FSDP is open-sourced at https://github.com/sail-sg/odc.