Daily Papers

Tree-based speculative decoding accelerates autoregressive generation by verifying a branching tree of draft tokens in a single target-model forward pass. However, existing methods prioritize maximizing token-level likelihood or the number of accepted tokens while ignoring a critical ``efficiency paradox'': the computational overhead of drafting and verifying big trees can grow super-linearly, particularly at scale. This often leads to negative wall-clock speedup when batch sizes increase or hardware saturation limits are reached. To address this, we propose SMART, a system-aware marginal analysis framework for runtime tree construction. SMART reformulates tree expansion as a hardware-aware optimization problem that directly maximizes end-to-end speedup. By applying a principled marginal benefit--cost rule at inference time, SMART expands a node only when its marginal benefit--cost ratio exceeds the tree-level speedup. SMART is training-free and serves as a plug-and-play controller for existing frameworks like MSD and EAGLE. Extensive evaluations across three MLLMs (e.g., LLaVA, Qwen2-VL) and four LLMs (e.g., Llama-3.1, DeepSeek-R1) demonstrate that SMART consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines. It delivers an average additional speedup of 20.0\% for MLLMs and 15.4\% for LLMs across compute-bound batching regimes and diverse GPU architectures without performance loss.

As the climate crisis deepens, artificial intelligence (AI) has emerged as a contested force: some champion its potential to advance renewable energy, materials discovery, and large-scale emissions monitoring, while others underscore its growing carbon footprint, water consumption, and material resource demands. Much of this debate has concentrated on direct impacts -- energy and water usage in data centers, e-waste from frequent hardware upgrades -- without addressing the significant indirect effects. This paper examines how the problem of Jevons' Paradox applies to AI, whereby efficiency gains may paradoxically spur increased consumption. We argue that understanding these second-order impacts requires an interdisciplinary approach, combining lifecycle assessments with socio-economic analyses. Rebound effects undermine the assumption that improved technical efficiency alone will ensure net reductions in environmental harm. Instead, the trajectory of AI's impact also hinges on business incentives and market logics, governance and policymaking, and broader social and cultural norms. We contend that a narrow focus on direct emissions misrepresents AI's true climate footprint, limiting the scope for meaningful interventions. We conclude with recommendations that address rebound effects and challenge the market-driven imperatives fueling uncontrolled AI growth. By broadening the analysis to include both direct and indirect consequences, we aim to inform a more comprehensive, evidence-based dialogue on AI's role in the climate crisis.

Since the breakthrough performance of AlexNet in 2012, convolutional neural networks (convnets) have grown into extremely powerful vision models. Deep learning researchers have used convnets to perform vision tasks with accuracy that was unachievable a decade ago. Confronted with the immense computation that convnets use, deep learning researchers also became interested in efficiency. However, the engineers who deployed efficient convnets soon realized that they were slower than the previous generation, despite using fewer operations. Many reverted to older models that ran faster. Hence researchers switched the objective of their search from arithmetic complexity to latency and produced a new wave of models that performed better. Paradoxically, these models also used more operations. Skepticism grew among researchers and engineers alike about the relevance of arithmetic complexity. Contrary to the prevailing view that latency and arithmetic complexity are irreconcilable, a simple formula relates both through computational efficiency. This insight enabled us to co-optimize the separate factors that determine latency. We observed that the degenerate conv2d layers that produce the best accuracy--complexity trade-off also use significant memory resources and have low computational efficiency. We devised block fusion algorithms to implement all the layers of a residual block in a single kernel, thereby creating temporal locality, avoiding communication, and reducing workspace size. Our ConvFirst model with block-fusion kernels has less arithmetic complexity and greater computational efficiency than baseline models and kernels, and ran approximately four times as fast as ConvNeXt. We also created novel tools, including efficiency gap plots and waterline analysis. Our unified approach to convnet efficiency envisions a new era of models and kernels that achieve greater accuracy at lower cost.

Recent years have witnessed increasing interest in extending large language models into agentic systems. While the effectiveness of agents has continued to improve, efficiency, which is crucial for real-world deployment, has often been overlooked. This paper therefore investigates efficiency from three core components of agents: memory, tool learning, and planning, considering costs such as latency, tokens, steps, etc. Aimed at conducting comprehensive research addressing the efficiency of the agentic system itself, we review a broad range of recent approaches that differ in implementation yet frequently converge on shared high-level principles including but not limited to bounding context via compression and management, designing reinforcement learning rewards to minimize tool invocation, and employing controlled search mechanisms to enhance efficiency, which we discuss in detail. Accordingly, we characterize efficiency in two complementary ways: comparing effectiveness under a fixed cost budget, and comparing cost at a comparable level of effectiveness. This trade-off can also be viewed through the Pareto frontier between effectiveness and cost. From this perspective, we also examine efficiency oriented benchmarks by summarizing evaluation protocols for these components and consolidating commonly reported efficiency metrics from both benchmark and methodological studies. Moreover, we discuss the key challenges and future directions, with the goal of providing promising insights.

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have greatly improved their reasoning and decision-making abilities when deployed as agents. Richer reasoning, however, often comes at the cost of longer chain of thought (CoT), hampering interaction efficiency in real-world scenarios. Nevertheless, there still lacks systematic definition of LLM agent efficiency, hindering targeted improvements. To this end, we introduce dual-efficiency, comprising (i) step-level efficiency, which minimizes tokens per step, and (ii) trajectory-level efficiency, which minimizes the number of steps to complete a task. Building on this definition, we propose DEPO, a dual-efficiency preference optimization method that jointly rewards succinct responses and fewer action steps. Experiments on WebShop and BabyAI show that DEPO cuts token usage by up to 60.9% and steps by up to 26.9%, while achieving up to a 29.3% improvement in performance. DEPO also generalizes to three out-of-domain math benchmarks and retains its efficiency gains when trained on only 25% of the data. Our project page is at https://opencausalab.github.io/DEPO.

The remarkable capabilities of Large Language Model (LLM)-driven agents have enabled sophisticated systems to tackle complex, multi-step tasks, but their escalating costs threaten scalability and accessibility. This work presents the first systematic study of the efficiency-effectiveness trade-off in modern agent systems, addressing the critical need for cost-effective designs without sacrificing performance. We investigate three key questions: (1) How much complexity do agentic tasks inherently require? (2) When do additional modules yield diminishing returns? (3) How much efficiency can be gained through the design of efficient agent frameworks? Through an empirical analysis on the GAIA benchmark, we evaluate the impact of LLM backbone selection, agent framework designs, and test-time scaling strategies. Using the cost-of-pass metric, we quantify the efficiency-performance trade-off across these dimensions. Our findings inform the development of Efficient Agents , a novel agent framework that has an optimal complexity to task requirements. Efficient Agents retains 96.7% of the performance of OWL, one leading open-source agent framework, while reducing operational costs from 0.398 to 0.228, resulting in a 28.4% improvement in cost-of-pass. Our work provides actionable insights for designing efficient, high-performing agent systems, advancing the accessibility and sustainability of AI-driven solutions.

In economy, markets are denoted as efficient when it is impossible to systematically generate profits which outperform the average. In the past years, the concept has been tested in other domains such as the growing sports betting market. Surprisingly, despite its large size and its level of maturity, sports betting shows traits of inefficiency. The anomalies indicate the existence of strategies which shift betting from a game of chance towards a game of skill. This article shows an example for an inefficiency detected in the German soccer betting TOTO 13er Wette, which is operated by state-run lottery agencies. Gamblers have to guess the outcome (win, draw, loss) of 13 soccer matches listed on a lottery tip. Applying stochastic methods, a recipe is presented to determine hit rates for single match outcomes. More important, the recipe provides the number of lottery tips required to achieve a specific number of strikes (number of correct match forecasts per lottery tip) for any given level of safety. An approximation is derived to cope with large numbers in hypergeometric distributions, valid under certain constraints. Overall, the strategy does lead to returns exceeding the aggregated lottery fees, resulting in moderate, but consistent profits. It is briefly discussed if lessions learned from soccer betting can be transferred back to financial markets, because gamblers and retail investors face similar challenges and opportunities.

Ecological management and decision-making typically focus on uncertainty about the future, but surprisingly little is known about how to account for uncertainty of the present: that is, the realities of having only partial or imperfect measurements. Our primary paradigms for handling decisions under uncertainty -- the precautionary principle and optimal control -- have so far given contradictory results. This paradox is best illustrated in the example of fisheries management, where many ideas that guide thinking about ecological decision making were first developed. We find that simplistic optimal control approaches have repeatedly concluded that a manager should increase catch quotas when faced with greater uncertainty about the fish biomass. Current best practices take a more precautionary approach, decreasing catch quotas by a fixed amount to account for uncertainty. Using comparisons to both simulated and historical catch data, we find that neither approach is sufficient to avoid stock collapses under moderate observational uncertainty. Using partially observed Markov decision process (POMDP) methods, we demonstrate how this paradox arises from flaws in the standard theory, which contributes to over-exploitation of fisheries and increased probability of economic and ecological collapse. In contrast, we find POMDP-based management avoids such over-exploitation while also generating higher economic value. These results have significant implications for how we handle uncertainty in both fisheries and ecological management more generally.

Large reasoning models (LRMs) are commonly trained with reinforcement learning (RL) to explore long chain-of-thought reasoning, achieving strong performance at high computational cost. Recent methods add multi-reward objectives to jointly optimize correctness and brevity, but these complex extensions often destabilize training and yield suboptimal trade-offs. We revisit this objective and challenge the necessity of such complexity. Through principled analysis, we identify fundamental misalignments in this paradigm: KL regularization loses its intended role when correctness and length are directly verifiable, and group-wise normalization becomes ambiguous under multiple reward signals. By removing these two items and simplifying the reward to a truncation-based length penalty, we show that the optimization problem reduces to supervised fine-tuning on self-generated data filtered for both correctness and conciseness. We term this simplified training strategy on-policy SFT. Despite its simplicity, on-policy SFT consistently defines the accuracy-efficiency Pareto frontier. It reduces CoT length by up to 80 while maintaining original accuracy, surpassing more complex RL-based methods across five benchmarks. Furthermore, it significantly enhances training efficiency, reducing GPU memory usage by 50% and accelerating convergence by 70%. Our code is available at https://github.com/EIT-NLP/On-Policy-SFT.

Recent advancements in large reasoning models (LRMs) have significantly enhanced language models' capabilities in complex problem-solving by emulating human-like deliberative thinking. However, these models often exhibit overthinking (i.e., the generation of unnecessarily verbose and redundant content), which hinders efficiency and inflates inference cost. In this work, we explore the representational and behavioral origins of this inefficiency, revealing that LRMs inherently possess the capacity for more concise reasoning. Empirical analyses show that correct reasoning paths vary significantly in length, and the shortest correct responses often suffice, indicating untapped efficiency potential. Exploiting these findings, we propose two lightweight methods to enhance LRM efficiency. First, we introduce Efficiency Steering, a training-free activation steering technique that modulates reasoning behavior via a single direction in the model's representation space. Second, we develop Self-Rewarded Efficiency RL, a reinforcement learning framework that dynamically balances task accuracy and brevity by rewarding concise correct solutions. Extensive experiments on seven LRM backbones across multiple mathematical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that our methods significantly reduce reasoning length while preserving or improving task performance. Our results highlight that reasoning efficiency can be improved by leveraging and guiding the intrinsic capabilities of existing models in a self-guided manner.

Parallel thinking has emerged as a promising paradigm for reasoning, yet it imposes significant computational burdens. Existing efficiency methods primarily rely on local, per-trajectory signals and lack principled mechanisms to exploit global dynamics across parallel branches. We introduce 2D probing, an interface that exposes the width-depth dynamics of parallel thinking by periodically eliciting intermediate answers from all branches. Our analysis reveals three key insights: non-monotonic scaling across width-depth allocations, heterogeneous reasoning branch lengths, and early stabilization of global consensus. Guided by these insights, we introduce Parallel-Probe, a training-free controller designed to optimize online parallel thinking. Parallel-Probe employs consensus-based early stopping to regulate reasoning depth and deviation-based branch pruning to dynamically adjust width. Extensive experiments across three benchmarks and multiple models demonstrate that Parallel-Probe establishes a superior Pareto frontier for test-time scaling. Compared to standard majority voting, it reduces sequential tokens by up to 35.8% and total token cost by over 25.8% while maintaining competitive accuracy.

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) have achieved remarkable success, yet they often suffer from producing unnecessary and verbose reasoning chains. We identify a core aspect of this issue as "invalid thinking" -- models tend to repeatedly double-check their work after having derived the correct answer. To address this specific inefficiency, we move beyond the general principles of Efficacy and Efficiency to propose two new, fine-grained principles: Brevity, which advocates for eliminating redundancy, and Sufficiency, which ensures critical reasoning steps are preserved. Guided by these principles, we introduce LC-R1, a post-training method based on Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO). LC-R1 employs a novel combination of a Length Reward for overall conciseness and a Compress Reward that is specifically designed to remove the invalid portion of the thinking process. Extensive experiments on multiple reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that LC-R1 achieves a significant reduction in sequence length (~50%) with only a marginal (~2%) drop in accuracy, achieving a favorable trade-off point on the Pareto frontier that prioritizes high compression. Our analysis further validates the robustness of LC-R1 and provides valuable insights for developing more powerful yet computationally efficient LRMs. Our code is released at https://github.com/zxiangx/LC-R1.

We consider strategy proof mechanisms for facility location which maximize equitability between agents. As is common in the literature, we measure equitability with the Gini index. We first prove a simple but fundamental impossibility result that no strategy proof mechanism can bound the approximation ratio of the optimal Gini index of utilities for one or more facilities. We propose instead computing approximation ratios of the complemented Gini index of utilities, and consider how well both deterministic and randomized mechanisms approximate this. In addition, as Nash welfare is often put forwards as an equitable compromise between egalitarian and utilitarian outcomes, we consider how well mechanisms approximate the Nash welfare.

This paper uses the concept of algorithmic efficiency to present a unified theory of intelligence. Intelligence is defined informally, formally, and computationally. We introduce the concept of Dimensional complexity in algorithmic efficiency and deduce that an optimally efficient algorithm has zero Time complexity, zero Space complexity, and an infinite Dimensional complexity. This algorithm is used to generate the number line.

The remarkable performance of models like the OpenAI o1 can be attributed to their ability to emulate human-like long-time thinking during inference. These models employ extended chain-of-thought (CoT) processes, exploring multiple strategies to enhance problem-solving capabilities. However, a critical question remains: How to intelligently and efficiently scale computational resources during testing. This paper presents the first comprehensive study on the prevalent issue of overthinking in these models, where excessive computational resources are allocated for simple problems with minimal benefit. We introduce novel efficiency metrics from both outcome and process perspectives to evaluate the rational use of computational resources by o1-like models. Using a self-training paradigm, we propose strategies to mitigate overthinking, streamlining reasoning processes without compromising accuracy. Experimental results show that our approach successfully reduces computational overhead while preserving model performance across a range of testsets with varying difficulty levels, such as GSM8K, MATH500, GPQA, and AIME.

We theoretically explore the relationship between sample-efficiency and adaptivity in reinforcement learning. An algorithm is sample-efficient if it uses a number of queries n to the environment that is polynomial in the dimension d of the problem. Adaptivity refers to the frequency at which queries are sent and feedback is processed to update the querying strategy. To investigate this interplay, we employ a learning framework that allows sending queries in K batches, with feedback being processed and queries updated after each batch. This model encompasses the whole adaptivity spectrum, ranging from non-adaptive 'offline' (K=1) to fully adaptive (K=n) scenarios, and regimes in between. For the problems of policy evaluation and best-policy identification under d-dimensional linear function approximation, we establish Omega(log log d) lower bounds on the number of batches K required for sample-efficient algorithms with n = O(poly(d)) queries. Our results show that just having adaptivity (K>1) does not necessarily guarantee sample-efficiency. Notably, the adaptivity-boundary for sample-efficiency is not between offline reinforcement learning (K=1), where sample-efficiency was known to not be possible, and adaptive settings. Instead, the boundary lies between different regimes of adaptivity and depends on the problem dimension.

As AI becomes more capable, we entrust it with more general and consequential tasks. The risks from failure grow more severe with increasing task scope. It is therefore important to understand how extremely capable AI models will fail: Will they fail by systematically pursuing goals we do not intend? Or will they fail by being a hot mess, and taking nonsensical actions that do not further any goal? We operationalize this question using a bias-variance decomposition of the errors made by AI models: An AI's incoherence on a task is measured over test-time randomness as the fraction of its error that stems from variance rather than bias in task outcome. Across all tasks and frontier models we measure, the longer models spend reasoning and taking actions, the more incoherent their failures become. Incoherence changes with model scale in a way that is experiment dependent. However, in several settings, larger, more capable models are more incoherent than smaller models. Consequently, scale alone seems unlikely to eliminate incoherence. Instead, as more capable AIs pursue harder tasks, requiring more sequential action and thought, our results predict failures to be accompanied by more incoherent behavior. This suggests a future where AIs sometimes cause industrial accidents (due to unpredictable misbehavior), but are less likely to exhibit consistent pursuit of a misaligned goal. This increases the relative importance of alignment research targeting reward hacking or goal misspecification.

The advent of agentic multimodal models has empowered systems to actively interact with external environments. However, current agents suffer from a profound meta-cognitive deficit: they struggle to arbitrate between leveraging internal knowledge and querying external utilities. Consequently, they frequently fall prey to blind tool invocation, resorting to reflexive tool execution even when queries are resolvable from the raw visual context. This pathological behavior precipitates severe latency bottlenecks and injects extraneous noise that derails sound reasoning. Existing reinforcement learning protocols attempt to mitigate this via a scalarized reward that penalizes tool usage. Yet, this coupled formulation creates an irreconcilable optimization dilemma: an aggressive penalty suppresses essential tool use, whereas a mild penalty is entirely subsumed by the variance of the accuracy reward during advantage normalization, rendering it impotent against tool overuse. To transcend this bottleneck, we propose HDPO, a framework that reframes tool efficiency from a competing scalar objective to a strictly conditional one. By eschewing reward scalarization, HDPO maintains two orthogonal optimization channels: an accuracy channel that maximizes task correctness, and an efficiency channel that enforces execution economy exclusively within accurate trajectories via conditional advantage estimation. This decoupled architecture naturally induces a cognitive curriculum-compelling the agent to first master task resolution before refining its self-reliance. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that our resulting model, Metis, reduces tool invocations by orders of magnitude while simultaneously elevating reasoning accuracy.

Model efficiency is a critical aspect of developing and deploying machine learning models. Inference time and latency directly affect the user experience, and some applications have hard requirements. In addition to inference costs, model training also have direct financial and environmental impacts. Although there are numerous well-established metrics (cost indicators) for measuring model efficiency, researchers and practitioners often assume that these metrics are correlated with each other and report only few of them. In this paper, we thoroughly discuss common cost indicators, their advantages and disadvantages, and how they can contradict each other. We demonstrate how incomplete reporting of cost indicators can lead to partial conclusions and a blurred or incomplete picture of the practical considerations of different models. We further present suggestions to improve reporting of efficiency metrics.

Off-Policy Evaluation (OPE) aims to assess the effectiveness of counterfactual policies using only offline logged data and is often used to identify the top-k promising policies for deployment in online A/B tests. Existing evaluation metrics for OPE estimators primarily focus on the "accuracy" of OPE or that of downstream policy selection, neglecting risk-return tradeoff in the subsequent online policy deployment. To address this issue, we draw inspiration from portfolio evaluation in finance and develop a new metric, called SharpeRatio@k, which measures the risk-return tradeoff of policy portfolios formed by an OPE estimator under varying online evaluation budgets (k). We validate our metric in two example scenarios, demonstrating its ability to effectively distinguish between low-risk and high-risk estimators and to accurately identify the most efficient one. Efficiency of an estimator is characterized by its capability to form the most advantageous policy portfolios, maximizing returns while minimizing risks during online deployment, a nuance that existing metrics typically overlook. To facilitate a quick, accurate, and consistent evaluation of OPE via SharpeRatio@k, we have also integrated this metric into an open-source software, SCOPE-RL (https://github.com/hakuhodo-technologies/scope-rl). Employing SharpeRatio@k and SCOPE-RL, we conduct comprehensive benchmarking experiments on various estimators and RL tasks, focusing on their risk-return tradeoff. These experiments offer several interesting directions and suggestions for future OPE research.

We study the impact on mechanisms for facility location of moving from one dimension to two (or more) dimensions and Euclidean or Manhattan distances. We consider three fundamental axiomatic properties: anonymity which is a basic fairness property, Pareto optimality which is one of the most important efficiency properties, and strategy proofness which ensures agents do not have an incentive to mis-report. We also consider how well such mechanisms can approximate the optimal welfare. Our results are somewhat negative. Moving from one dimension to two (or more) dimensions often makes these axiomatic properties more difficult to achieve. For example, with two facilities in Euclidean space or with just a single facility in Manhattan space, no mechanism is anonymous, Pareto optimal and strategy proof. By contrast, mechanisms on the line exist with all three properties.We also show that approximation ratios may increase when moving to two (or more) dimensions. All our impossibility results are minimal. If we drop one of the three axioms (anonymity, Pareto optimality or strategy proofness) multiple mechanisms satisfy the other two axioms.

Recent Large Reasoning Models (LRMs), such as DeepSeek-R1 and OpenAI o1, have demonstrated strong performance gains by scaling up the length of Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning during inference. However, a growing concern lies in their tendency to produce excessively long reasoning traces, which are often filled with redundant content (e.g., repeated definitions), over-analysis of simple problems, and superficial exploration of multiple reasoning paths for harder tasks. This inefficiency introduces significant challenges for training, inference, and real-world deployment (e.g., in agent-based systems), where token economy is critical. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive overview of recent efforts aimed at improving reasoning efficiency in LRMs, with a particular focus on the unique challenges that arise in this new paradigm. We identify common patterns of inefficiency, examine methods proposed across the LRM lifecycle, i.e., from pretraining to inference, and discuss promising future directions for research. To support ongoing development, we also maintain a real-time GitHub repository tracking recent progress in the field. We hope this survey serves as a foundation for further exploration and inspires innovation in this rapidly evolving area.

The recent wave of generative AI has sparked unprecedented global attention, with both excitement and concern over potentially superhuman levels of artificial intelligence: models now take only seconds to produce outputs that would challenge or exceed the capabilities even of expert humans. At the same time, models still show basic errors in understanding that would not be expected even in non-expert humans. This presents us with an apparent paradox: how do we reconcile seemingly superhuman capabilities with the persistence of errors that few humans would make? In this work, we posit that this tension reflects a divergence in the configuration of intelligence in today's generative models relative to intelligence in humans. Specifically, we propose and test the Generative AI Paradox hypothesis: generative models, having been trained directly to reproduce expert-like outputs, acquire generative capabilities that are not contingent upon -- and can therefore exceed -- their ability to understand those same types of outputs. This contrasts with humans, for whom basic understanding almost always precedes the ability to generate expert-level outputs. We test this hypothesis through controlled experiments analyzing generation vs. understanding in generative models, across both language and image modalities. Our results show that although models can outperform humans in generation, they consistently fall short of human capabilities in measures of understanding, as well as weaker correlation between generation and understanding performance, and more brittleness to adversarial inputs. Our findings support the hypothesis that models' generative capability may not be contingent upon understanding capability, and call for caution in interpreting artificial intelligence by analogy to human intelligence.

There is intense interest in investigating how inference time compute (ITC) (e.g. repeated sampling, refinements, etc) can improve large language model (LLM) capabilities. At the same time, recent breakthroughs in reasoning models, such as Deepseek-R1, unlock the opportunity for reinforcement learning to improve LLM reasoning skills. An in-depth understanding of how ITC interacts with reasoning across different models could provide important guidance on how to further advance the LLM frontier. This work conducts a comprehensive analysis of inference-time scaling methods for both reasoning and non-reasoning models on challenging reasoning tasks. Specifically, we focus our research on verifier-free inference time-scaling methods due to its generalizability without needing a reward model. We construct the Pareto frontier of quality and efficiency. We find that non-reasoning models, even with an extremely high inference budget, still fall substantially behind reasoning models. For reasoning models, majority voting proves to be a robust inference strategy, generally competitive or outperforming other more sophisticated ITC methods like best-of-N and sequential revisions, while the additional inference compute offers minimal improvements. We further perform in-depth analyses of the association of key response features (length and linguistic markers) with response quality, with which we can improve the existing ITC methods. We find that correct responses from reasoning models are typically shorter and have fewer hedging and thinking markers (but more discourse markers) than the incorrect responses.

Utility functions or their equivalents (value functions, objective functions, loss functions, reward functions, preference orderings) are a central tool in most current machine learning systems. These mechanisms for defining goals and guiding optimization run into practical and conceptual difficulty when there are independent, multi-dimensional objectives that need to be pursued simultaneously and cannot be reduced to each other. Ethicists have proved several impossibility theorems that stem from this origin; those results appear to show that there is no way of formally specifying what it means for an outcome to be good for a population without violating strong human ethical intuitions (in such cases, the objective function is a social welfare function). We argue that this is a practical problem for any machine learning system (such as medical decision support systems or autonomous weapons) or rigidly rule-based bureaucracy that will make high stakes decisions about human lives: such systems should not use objective functions in the strict mathematical sense. We explore the alternative of using uncertain objectives, represented for instance as partially ordered preferences, or as probability distributions over total orders. We show that previously known impossibility theorems can be transformed into uncertainty theorems in both of those settings, and prove lower bounds on how much uncertainty is implied by the impossibility results. We close by proposing two conjectures about the relationship between uncertainty in objectives and severe unintended consequences from AI systems.

Test-time compute has emerged as a promising strategy to enhance the reasoning abilities of large language models (LLMs). However, this strategy has in turn increased how much users pay cloud-based providers offering LLM-as-a-service, since providers charge users for the amount of test-time compute they use to generate an output. In our work, we show that the market of LLM-as-a-service is socially inefficient: providers have a financial incentive to increase the amount of test-time compute, even if this increase contributes little to the quality of the outputs. To address this inefficiency, we introduce a reverse second-price auction mechanism where providers bid their offered price and (expected) quality for the opportunity to serve a user, and users pay proportionally to the marginal value generated by the winning provider relative to the second-highest bidder. To illustrate and complement our theoretical results, we conduct experiments with multiple instruct models from the Llama and Qwen families, as well as reasoning models distilled from DeepSeek-R1, on math and science benchmark datasets.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) for large language models (LLMs) has achieved remarkable progress in enhancing LLMs' reasoning capabilities on tasks with clear correctness criteria, such as mathematical reasoning tasks. Several training metrics, such as entropy or response length, have been observed to correlate with different reasoning behaviors in reinforcement learning. Prior approaches incorporate such priors through reward or advantage shaping, which often relies on hand-crafted penalties and preferences (e.g., higher-is-better or lower-is-better). However, without careful hyperparameter tuning, these directional priors can be overly biased and may lead to failure. To this end, we introduce Conditional advANtage estimatiON (CANON), amplifying the impact of the target metric without presuming its direction. Specifically, CANON regroups the sampled responses into two groups based on the higher or lower value of a target metric, measures which metric trend contributes to better performance through inter-group comparison, and identifies the better response within the same group. In summary, CANON based on entropy consistently outperforms prior methods across three LLMs on both math reasoning and high-complexity logic tasks. When applied to response length, CANON further improves token efficiency, yielding a more favorable Pareto frontier in the performance-cost trade-off.

Large Language Models (LLMs), particularly Code LLMs, have demonstrated impressive performance in code generation. Current research primarily focuses on the correctness of generated code, while efficiency remains less explored. Recent works have focused on modifying the initial version of the code to improve its efficiency. However, such refinements are limited by the algorithmic design and overall logic of the initial code, resulting in only incremental improvements. In contrast, when human developers write high-quality code, they typically begin by designing several potential solutions at the logical level, evaluating various algorithms and their complexities, and then proceeding to implement and optimize the solution. In this study, we introduce \tool: Large Language Model for Code Efficiency, a novel framework that enables LLMs to generate code that balances both efficiency and correctness. Specifically, \tool divides the efficiency optimization process into two domains: algorithmic exploration in the logic domain and implementation optimization in the code domain. The correctness of the code is then guaranteed through a synthetic test case refinement process. This approach, which prioritizes efficiency before ensuring correctness, offers a new paradigm for efficient code generation. Experiments demonstrate that \tool consistently improves both efficiency and correctness, achieving new state-of-the-art performance in code efficiency benchmarks across various LLM backbones.

Seven years ago, researchers proposed a postprocessing method to equalize the error rates of a model across different demographic groups. The work launched hundreds of papers purporting to improve over the postprocessing baseline. We empirically evaluate these claims through thousands of model evaluations on several tabular datasets. We find that the fairness-accuracy Pareto frontier achieved by postprocessing contains all other methods we were feasibly able to evaluate. In doing so, we address two common methodological errors that have confounded previous observations. One relates to the comparison of methods with different unconstrained base models. The other concerns methods achieving different levels of constraint relaxation. At the heart of our study is a simple idea we call unprocessing that roughly corresponds to the inverse of postprocessing. Unprocessing allows for a direct comparison of methods using different underlying models and levels of relaxation.

The rapid advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) has driven the need for more efficient serving strategies. In this context, efficiency refers to the proportion of requests that meet their Service Level Objectives (SLOs), particularly for Time To First Token (TTFT) and Time Between Tokens (TBT). However, existing systems often prioritize one metric at the cost of the other. We present Ascendra, an LLM serving system designed to meet both TTFT and TBT SLOs simultaneously. The core insight behind Ascendra is that a request's urgency evolves as it approaches its deadline. To leverage this, Ascendra partitions GPU resources into two types of instances: low-priority and high-priority. Low-priority instances maximize throughput by processing requests out of arrival order, but at the risk of request starvation. To address this, Ascendra employs a performance model to predict requests at risk of missing their SLOs and proactively offloads them to high-priority instances. High-priority instances are optimized for low-latency execution and handle urgent requests nearing their deadlines. This partitioned architecture enables Ascendra to effectively balance high throughput and low latency. Extensive evaluation shows that Ascendra improves system throughput by up to 1.7x compared to vLLM and Sarathi-Serve while meeting both TTFT and TBT SLOs.

We introduce Differential Performance Evaluation (DPE), a framework designed to reliably evaluate Large Language Models (LLMs) for efficient code generation. Traditional coding benchmarks often fail to provide reliable insights into code efficiency, due to their reliance on simplistic test inputs and the absence of effective compound metrics. DPE addresses these issues by focusing on efficiency-demanding programming tasks and establishing an insightful compound metric for performance evaluation. DPE operates in two phases: To curate efficiency datasets, it selects efficiency-demanding tasks from existing coding benchmarks and generates computationally expensive inputs to stress the efficiency of LLM solutions. To assess the code efficiency, DPE profiles the new solution and compares it globally against a set of reference solutions that exhibit distinct efficiency levels, where the matched level defines its efficiency score. As a proof of concept, we use DPE to create EvalPerf, a benchmark with 121 performance-challenging coding tasks. Our comprehensive evaluation draws interesting findings on the efficiency impact of model sizes, instruction tuning, and prompting. For example, while the scaling law fails to account for code efficiency, general instruction tuning benefits both code correctness and efficiency. We also evaluate the evaluation by examining the effectiveness of DPE, showing that EvalPerf is reliable and convenient to use even across platforms.

With the growing attention and investment in recent AI approaches such as large language models, the narrative that the larger the AI system the more valuable, powerful and interesting it is is increasingly seen as common sense. But what is this assumption based on, and how are we measuring value, power, and performance? And what are the collateral consequences of this race to ever-increasing scale? Here, we scrutinize the current scaling trends and trade-offs across multiple axes and refute two common assumptions underlying the 'bigger-is-better' AI paradigm: 1) that improved performance is a product of increased scale, and 2) that all interesting problems addressed by AI require large-scale models. Rather, we argue that this approach is not only fragile scientifically, but comes with undesirable consequences. First, it is not sustainable, as its compute demands increase faster than model performance, leading to unreasonable economic requirements and a disproportionate environmental footprint. Second, it implies focusing on certain problems at the expense of others, leaving aside important applications, e.g. health, education, or the climate. Finally, it exacerbates a concentration of power, which centralizes decision-making in the hands of a few actors while threatening to disempower others in the context of shaping both AI research and its applications throughout society.

Recent advances in deep-research agents have shown promise for autonomous knowledge construction through dynamic reasoning over external sources. However, existing approaches rely on a mono-contextual paradigm that accumulates all information in a single, expanding context window, leading to context suffocation and noise contamination that limit their effectiveness on long-horizon tasks. We introduce IterResearch, a novel iterative deep-research paradigm that reformulates long-horizon research as a Markov Decision Process with strategic workspace reconstruction. By maintaining an evolving report as memory and periodically synthesizing insights, our approach preserves consistent reasoning capacity across arbitrary exploration depths. We further develop Efficiency-Aware Policy Optimization (EAPO), a reinforcement learning framework that incentivizes efficient exploration through geometric reward discounting and enables stable distributed training via adaptive downsampling. Extensive experiments demonstrate that IterResearch achieves substantial improvements over existing open-source agents with average +14.5pp across six benchmarks and narrows the gap with frontier proprietary systems. Remarkably, our paradigm exhibits unprecedented interaction scaling, extending to 2048 interactions with dramatic performance gains (from 3.5\% to 42.5\%), and serves as an effective prompting strategy, improving frontier models by up to 19.2pp over ReAct on long-horizon tasks. These findings position IterResearch as a versatile solution for long-horizon reasoning, effective both as a trained agent and as a prompting paradigm for frontier models.

As deep learning models scale, their training cost has surged significantly. Due to both hardware advancements and limitations in current software stacks, the need for data efficiency has risen. Data efficiency refers to the effective hiding of data access latency and the avoidance of unnecessary data movements. Major challenges arise from the growing disparity between GPU memory bandwidth and computational throughput, imminent GPU memory capacity limitations, and inefficiencies in the PyTorch software stack, including a lack of device-specific PCIe transfer optimizations and high-level domain-specific abstractions. To effectively mitigate these data inefficiencies for deep learning training, this dissertation analyzes data inefficiency in representative deep training tasks, specifically in graph neural networks (GNNs) and large language models (LLMs). It then proposes novel runtime and code generation techniques to mitigate these challenges and implements these optimizations seamlessly within the PyTorch stack while maintaining strong programmability and interoperability. First, PyTorch-Direct is devised to incorporate the GPU-centric PCIe data transfer paradigm in PyTorch for GNN training. Next, Hector intermediate representation (IR) and its code generator are proposed to introduce domain-specific high-level abstraction and systematically address memory-intensive performance challenges for relational GNNs. Finally, in LLM training, the throughput has been increasingly constrained by GPU memory capacity. To mitigate this, the SSDTrain offloading framework is designed and implemented. Together, these contributions show that code generation and runtime techniques can systematically mitigate the data management bottlenecks in deep learning training, which stem from the data-intensive nature of workloads and the oversimplification inherent in the deep learning training software stack.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable success in complex reasoning tasks, but their inference remains computationally inefficient. We observe a common failure mode in many prevalent LLMs, overthinking, where models generate verbose and tangential reasoning traces even for simple queries. Recent works have tried to mitigate this by enforcing fixed token budgets, however, this can lead to underthinking, especially on harder problems. Through empirical analysis, we identify that this inefficiency often stems from unclear problem-solving strategies. To formalize this, we develop a theoretical model, BBAM (Bayesian Budget Allocation Model), which models reasoning as a sequence of sub-questions with varying uncertainty, and introduce the E^3 metric to capture the trade-off between correctness and computation efficiency. Building on theoretical results from BBAM, we propose Plan-and-Budget, a model-agnostic, test-time framework that decomposes complex queries into sub-questions and allocates token budgets based on estimated complexity using adaptive scheduling. Plan-and-Budget improves reasoning efficiency across a range of tasks and models, achieving up to +70% accuracy gains, -39% token reduction, and +187.5% improvement in E^3. Notably, it elevates a smaller model (DS-Qwen-32B) to match the efficiency of a larger model (DS-LLaMA-70B)-demonstrating Plan-and-Budget's ability to close performance gaps without retraining. Our code is available at anonymous.4open.science/r/P-and-B-6513/.

Large reasoning models enhanced by reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards have achieved significant performance gains by extending their chain-of-thought. However, this paradigm incurs substantial deployment costs as models often exhibit excessive verbosity on simple queries. Existing efficient reasoning methods relying on explicit length penalties often introduce optimization conflicts and leave the generative mechanisms driving overthinking largely unexamined. In this paper, we identify a phenomenon termed length shift where models increasingly generate unnecessary reasoning on trivial inputs during training. To address this, we introduce Dynamic Outlier Truncation (DOT), a training-time intervention that selectively suppresses redundant tokens. This method targets only the extreme tail of response lengths within fully correct rollout groups while preserving long-horizon reasoning capabilities for complex problems. To complement this intervention and ensure stable convergence, we further incorporate auxiliary KL regularization and predictive dynamic sampling. Experimental results across multiple model scales demonstrate that our approach significantly pushes the efficiency-performance Pareto frontier outward. Notably, on the AIME-24, our method reduces inference token usage by 78% while simultaneously increasing accuracy compared to the initial policy and surpassing state-of-the-art efficient reasoning methods.

As LLM agents advance, they are increasingly mediating economic decisions, ranging from product discovery to transactions, on behalf of users. Such applications promise benefits but also raise many questions about agent accountability and value for users. Addressing these questions requires understanding how agents behave in realistic market conditions. However, previous research has largely evaluated agents in constrained settings, such as single-task marketplaces (e.g., negotiation) or structured two-agent interactions. Real-world markets are fundamentally different: they require agents to handle diverse economic activities and coordinate within large, dynamic ecosystems where multiple agents with opaque behaviors may engage in open-ended dialogues. To bridge this gap, we investigate two-sided agentic marketplaces where Assistant agents represent consumers and Service agents represent competing businesses. To study these interactions safely, we develop Magentic-Marketplace-- a simulated environment where Assistants and Services can operate. This environment enables us to study key market dynamics: the utility agents achieve, behavioral biases, vulnerability to manipulation, and how search mechanisms shape market outcomes. Our experiments show that frontier models can approach optimal welfare-- but only under ideal search conditions. Performance degrades sharply with scale, and all models exhibit severe first-proposal bias, creating 10-30x advantages for response speed over quality. These findings reveal how behaviors emerge across market conditions, informing the design of fair and efficient agentic marketplaces.

Implementing a reward function that perfectly captures a complex task in the real world is impractical. As a result, it is often appropriate to think of the reward function as a proxy for the true objective rather than as its definition. We study this phenomenon through the lens of Goodhart's law, which predicts that increasing optimisation of an imperfect proxy beyond some critical point decreases performance on the true objective. First, we propose a way to quantify the magnitude of this effect and show empirically that optimising an imperfect proxy reward often leads to the behaviour predicted by Goodhart's law for a wide range of environments and reward functions. We then provide a geometric explanation for why Goodhart's law occurs in Markov decision processes. We use these theoretical insights to propose an optimal early stopping method that provably avoids the aforementioned pitfall and derive theoretical regret bounds for this method. Moreover, we derive a training method that maximises worst-case reward, for the setting where there is uncertainty about the true reward function. Finally, we evaluate our early stopping method experimentally. Our results support a foundation for a theoretically-principled study of reinforcement learning under reward misspecification.

Recently, large reasoning models have achieved impressive performance on various tasks by employing human-like deep thinking. However, the lengthy thinking process substantially increases inference overhead, making efficiency a critical bottleneck. In this work, we first demonstrate that NoThinking, which prompts the reasoning model to skip thinking and directly generate the final solution, is a better choice for relatively simple tasks in terms of both performance and efficiency. Motivated by this, we propose AdaptThink, a novel RL algorithm to teach reasoning models to choose the optimal thinking mode adaptively based on problem difficulty. Specifically, AdaptThink features two core components: (1) a constrained optimization objective that encourages the model to choose NoThinking while maintaining the overall performance; (2) an importance sampling strategy that balances Thinking and NoThinking samples during on-policy training, thereby enabling cold start and allowing the model to explore and exploit both thinking modes throughout the training process. Our experiments indicate that AdaptThink significantly reduces the inference costs while further enhancing performance. Notably, on three math datasets, AdaptThink reduces the average response length of DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-1.5B by 53% and improves its accuracy by 2.4%, highlighting the promise of adaptive thinking-mode selection for optimizing the balance between reasoning quality and efficiency. Our codes and models are available at https://github.com/THU-KEG/AdaptThink.

Code generation models have increasingly become integral to aiding software development, offering assistance in tasks such as code completion, debugging, and code translation. Although current research has thoroughly examined the correctness of code produced by code generation models, a vital aspect, i.e., the efficiency of the generated code, has often been neglected. This paper presents EffiBench, a benchmark with 1,000 efficiency-critical coding problems for assessing the efficiency of code generated by code generation models. EffiBench contains a diverse set of LeetCode coding problems. Each problem is paired with an executable human-written canonical solution. With EffiBench, we empirically examine the capability of 21 Large Language Models (13 open-sourced and 8 closed-sourced) in generating efficient code. The results demonstrate that GPT-4-turbo generates the most efficient code, significantly outperforming Palm-2-chat-bison, Claude-instant-1, Gemini-pro, GPT-4, and GPT-3.5. Nevertheless, its code efficiency is still worse than the efficiency of human-written canonical solutions. In particular, the average and worst execution time of GPT-4-turbo generated code is 1.69 and 45.49 times that of the canonical solutions.

The widespread adoption of AI systems in the economy hinges on their ability to generate economic value that outweighs their inference costs. Evaluating this tradeoff requires metrics that account for both performance and costs. We propose a framework grounded in production theory for evaluating language models by combining accuracy and inference cost. We introduce "cost-of-pass", the expected monetary cost of generating a correct solution. We then define the "frontier cost-of-pass" as the minimum cost-of-pass achievable across available models or the "human-expert, using the approximate cost of hiring an expert. Our analysis reveals distinct economic insights. First, lightweight models are most cost-effective for basic quantitative tasks, large models for knowledge-intensive ones, and reasoning models for complex quantitative problems, despite higher per-token costs. Second, tracking this frontier cost-of-pass over the past year reveals significant progress, particularly for complex quantitative tasks where the cost has roughly halved every few months. Third, to trace key innovations driving this progress, we examine counterfactual frontiers: estimates of cost-efficiency without specific model classes. We find that innovations in lightweight, large, and reasoning models have been essential for pushing the frontier in basic quantitative, knowledge-intensive, and complex quantitative tasks, respectively. Finally, we assess the cost-reductions afforded by common inference-time techniques like majority voting and self-refinement, finding that their marginal accuracy gains rarely justify their costs. Our findings underscore that complementary model-level innovations are the primary drivers of cost-efficiency, and our economic framework provides a principled tool for measuring this progress and guiding deployment.

The success of deep neural networks (DNNs) is attributable to three factors: increased compute capacity, more complex models, and more data. These factors, however, are not always present, especially for edge applications such as autonomous driving, augmented reality, and internet-of-things. Training DNNs requires a large amount of data, which is difficult to obtain. Edge devices such as mobile phones have limited compute capacity, and therefore, require specialized and efficient DNNs. However, due to the enormous design space and prohibitive training costs, designing efficient DNNs for different target devices is challenging. So the question is, with limited data, compute capacity, and model complexity, can we still successfully apply deep neural networks? This dissertation focuses on the above problems and improving the efficiency of deep neural networks at four levels. Model efficiency: we designed neural networks for various computer vision tasks and achieved more than 10x faster speed and lower energy. Data efficiency: we developed an advanced tool that enables 6.2x faster annotation of a LiDAR point cloud. We also leveraged domain adaptation to utilize simulated data, bypassing the need for real data. Hardware efficiency: we co-designed neural networks and hardware accelerators and achieved 11.6x faster inference. Design efficiency: the process of finding the optimal neural networks is time-consuming. Our automated neural architecture search algorithms discovered, using 421x lower computational cost than previous search methods, models with state-of-the-art accuracy and efficiency.

Large language models (LLMs) with Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting achieve strong reasoning but often produce unnecessarily long explanations, increasing cost and sometimes reducing accuracy. Fair comparison of efficiency-oriented approaches is hindered by fragmented evaluation practices. We introduce EffiReason-Bench, a unified benchmark for rigorous cross-paradigm evaluation of efficient reasoning methods across three categories: Reasoning Blueprints, Dynamic Execution, and Post-hoc Refinement. To enable step-by-step evaluation, we construct verified CoT annotations for CommonsenseQA and LogiQA via a pipeline that enforces standardized reasoning structures, comprehensive option-wise analysis, and human verification. We evaluate 7 methods across 6 open-source LLMs (1B-70B) on 4 datasets spanning mathematics, commonsense, and logic, and propose the E3-Score, a principled metric inspired by economic trade-off modeling that provides smooth, stable evaluation without discontinuities or heavy reliance on heuristics. Experiments show that no single method universally dominates; optimal strategies depend on backbone scale, task complexity, and architecture.

Indirect experiments provide a valuable framework for estimating treatment effects in situations where conducting randomized control trials (RCTs) is impractical or unethical. Unlike RCTs, indirect experiments estimate treatment effects by leveraging (conditional) instrumental variables, enabling estimation through encouragement and recommendation rather than strict treatment assignment. However, the sample efficiency of such estimators depends not only on the inherent variability in outcomes but also on the varying compliance levels of users with the instrumental variables and the choice of estimator being used, especially when dealing with numerous instrumental variables. While adaptive experiment design has a rich literature for direct experiments, in this paper we take the initial steps towards enhancing sample efficiency for indirect experiments by adaptively designing a data collection policy over instrumental variables. Our main contribution is a practical computational procedure that utilizes influence functions to search for an optimal data collection policy, minimizing the mean-squared error of the desired (non-linear) estimator. Through experiments conducted in various domains inspired by real-world applications, we showcase how our method can significantly improve the sample efficiency of indirect experiments.

We consider a fair division model in which agents have positive, zero and negative utilities for items. For this model, we analyse one existing fairness property - EFX - and three new and related properties - EFX_0, EFX^3 and EF1^3 - in combination with Pareto-optimality. With general utilities, we give a modified version of an existing algorithm for computing an EF1^3 allocation. With -alpha/0/alpha utilities, this algorithm returns an EFX^3 and PO allocation. With absolute identical utilities, we give a new algorithm for an EFX and PO allocation. With -alpha/0/beta utilities, this algorithm also returns such an allocation. We report some new impossibility results as well.

Supersized pre-trained language models have pushed the accuracy of various natural language processing (NLP) tasks to a new state-of-the-art (SOTA). Rather than pursuing the reachless SOTA accuracy, more and more researchers start paying attention on model efficiency and usability. Different from accuracy, the metric for efficiency varies across different studies, making them hard to be fairly compared. To that end, this work presents ELUE (Efficient Language Understanding Evaluation), a standard evaluation, and a public leaderboard for efficient NLP models. ELUE is dedicated to depict the Pareto Frontier for various language understanding tasks, such that it can tell whether and how much a method achieves Pareto improvement. Along with the benchmark, we also release a strong baseline, ElasticBERT, which allows BERT to exit at any layer in both static and dynamic ways. We demonstrate the ElasticBERT, despite its simplicity, outperforms or performs on par with SOTA compressed and early exiting models. With ElasticBERT, the proposed ELUE has a strong Pareto Frontier and makes a better evaluation for efficient NLP models.

This paper introduces Waste Factor (W) and Waste Figure (WF) to assess power efficiency in any multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) or single-input multiple-output (SIMO) or multiple-input single-output (MISO) cascaded communication system. This paper builds upon the new theory of Waste Factor, which systematically models added wasted power in any cascade for parallel systems such as MISO, SIMO, and MIMO systems, which are prevalent in current wireless networks. Here, we also show the advantage of W compared to conventional metrics for quantifying and analyzing energy efficiency. This work explores the utility of W in assessing energy efficiency in communication channels, within Radio Access Networks (RANs).

Code efficiency is a fundamental aspect of software quality, yet how to harness large language models (LLMs) to optimize programs remains challenging. Prior approaches have sought for one-shot rewriting, retrieved exemplars, or prompt-based search, but they do not explicitly distill reusable optimization knowledge, which limits generalization beyond individual instances. In this paper, we present EffiSkill, a framework for code-efficiency optimization that builds a portable optimization toolbox for LLM-based agents. The key idea is to model recurring slow-to-fast transformations as reusable agent skills that capture both concrete transformation mechanisms and higher-level optimization strategies. EffiSkill adopts a two-stage design: Stage I mines Operator and Meta Skills from large-scale slow/fast program pairs to build a skill library; Stage II applies this library to unseen programs through execution-free diagnosis, skill retrieval, plan composition, and candidate generation, without runtime feedback. Results on EffiBench-X show that EffiSkill achieves higher optimization success rates, improving over the strongest baseline by 3.69 to 12.52 percentage points across model and language settings. These findings suggest that mechanism-level skill reuse provides a useful foundation for execution-free code optimization, and that the resulting skill library can serve as a reusable resource for broader agent workflows.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR), particularly GRPO, has become the standard for eliciting LLM reasoning. However, its efficiency in exploration and difficulty adaptation remains an open challenge. In this work, we argue that these bottlenecks stem from an implicit advantage symmetry inherent in Group Relative Advantage Estimation (GRAE). This symmetry induces two critical limitations: (i) at the group level, strict symmetry in weights between correct and incorrect trajectories leaves unsampled action logits unchanged, thereby hindering exploration of novel correct solution. (ii) at the sample level, the algorithm implicitly prioritizes medium-difficulty samples, remaining agnostic to the non-stationary demands of difficulty focus. Through controlled experiments, we reveal that this symmetric property is sub-optimal, yielding two pivotal insights: (i) asymmetrically suppressing the advantages of correct trajectories encourages essential exploration. (ii) learning efficiency is maximized by a curriculum-like transition-prioritizing simpler samples initially before gradually shifting to complex ones. Motivated by these findings, we propose Asymmetric GRAE (A-GRAE), which dynamically modulates exploration incentives and sample-difficulty focus. Experiments across seven benchmarks demonstrate that A-GRAE consistently improves GRPO and its variants across both LLMs and MLLMs.

Large language models (LLMs) power many state-of-the-art systems in natural language processing. However, these models are extremely computationally expensive, even at inference time, raising the natural question: when is the extra cost of deploying a larger model worth the anticipated boost in capabilities? Better understanding this tradeoff fundamentally could benefit from an inference efficiency metric that is both (i) easily comparable across models from different providers, and (ii) representative of the true cost of running queries in an isolated performance environment. Unfortunately, access to LLMs today is largely restricted to black-box text generation APIs and raw runtimes measured through this interface do not satisfy these desiderata: model providers can apply various software and hardware optimizations orthogonal to the model, and models served on shared infrastructure are susceptible to performance contention. To circumvent these problems, we propose a new metric for comparing inference efficiency across models. This metric puts models on equal footing as though they were served (i) on uniform hardware and software, and (ii) without performance contention. We call this metric the idealized runtime, and we propose a methodology to efficiently estimate this metric for autoregressive Transformer models. We also propose cost-aware variants that incorporate the number of accelerators needed to serve the model. Using these metrics, we compare ten state-of-the-art LLMs to provide the first analysis of inference efficiency-capability tradeoffs; we make several observations from this analysis, including the fact that the superior inference runtime performance of certain APIs is often a byproduct of optimizations within the API rather than the underlying model. Our methodology also facilitates the efficient comparison of different software and hardware stacks.

We introduce MMBench-GUI, a hierarchical benchmark for evaluating GUI automation agents across Windows, macOS, Linux, iOS, Android, and Web platforms. It comprises four levels: GUI Content Understanding, Element Grounding, Task Automation, and Task Collaboration, covering essential skills for GUI agents. In addition, we propose a novel Efficiency-Quality Area (EQA) metric to assess GUI agent execution efficiency in online automation scenarios. Through MMBench-GUI, we identify accurate visual grounding as a critical determinant of overall task success, emphasizing the substantial benefits of modular frameworks that integrate specialized grounding modules. Furthermore, to achieve reliable GUI automation, an agent requires strong task planning and cross-platform generalization abilities, with long-context memory, a broad action space, and long-term reasoning playing a critical role. More important, task efficiency remains a critically underexplored dimension, and all models suffer from substantial inefficiencies, with excessive redundant steps even when tasks are ultimately completed. The integration of precise localization, effective planning, and early stopping strategies is indispensable to enable truly efficient and scalable GUI automation. Our benchmark code, evaluation data, and running environment will be publicly available at https://github.com/open-compass/MMBench-GUI.

Algorithmic efficiency techniques such as distillation (hinton2015distillation) are useful in improving model quality without increasing serving costs, provided a larger teacher model is available for a smaller student model to learn from during training. Standard distillation methods are limited to only forcing the student to match the teacher's outputs. Given the costs associated with training a large model, we believe we should be extracting more useful information from a teacher model than by just making the student match the teacher's outputs. In this paper, we introduce \guide (Guided Initialization and Distillation of Embeddings). \guide can be considered a distillation technique that forces the student to match the teacher in the parameter space. Using \guide we show 25-26\% reduction in the teacher-student quality gap when using large student models (400M - 1B parameters) trained on approx 20B tokens. We also present a thorough analysis demonstrating that \guide can be combined with knowledge distillation with near additive improvements. Furthermore, we show that applying \guide alone leads to substantially better model quality than applying knowledge distillation by itself. Most importantly, \guide introduces no training or inference overhead and hence any model quality gains from our method are virtually free.

Learning from off-policy data is essential for sample-efficient reinforcement learning. In the present work, we build on the insight that the advantage function can be understood as the causal effect of an action on the return, and show that this allows us to decompose the return of a trajectory into parts caused by the agent's actions (skill) and parts outside of the agent's control (luck). Furthermore, this decomposition enables us to naturally extend Direct Advantage Estimation (DAE) to off-policy settings (Off-policy DAE). The resulting method can learn from off-policy trajectories without relying on importance sampling techniques or truncating off-policy actions. We draw connections between Off-policy DAE and previous methods to demonstrate how it can speed up learning and when the proposed off-policy corrections are important. Finally, we use the MinAtar environments to illustrate how ignoring off-policy corrections can lead to suboptimal policy optimization performance.

In most machine learning tasks, we evaluate a model M on a given data population S by measuring a population-level metric F(S;M). Examples of such evaluation metric F include precision/recall for (binary) recognition, the F1 score for multi-class classification, and the BLEU metric for language generation. On the other hand, the model M is trained by optimizing a sample-level loss G(S_t;M) at each learning step t, where S_t is a subset of S (a.k.a. the mini-batch). Popular choices of G include cross-entropy loss, the Dice loss, and sentence-level BLEU scores. A fundamental assumption behind this paradigm is that the mean value of the sample-level loss G, if averaged over all possible samples, should effectively represent the population-level metric F of the task, such as, that E[ G(S_t;M) ] approx F(S;M). In this paper, we systematically investigate the above assumption in several NLP tasks. We show, both theoretically and experimentally, that some popular designs of the sample-level loss G may be inconsistent with the true population-level metric F of the task, so that models trained to optimize the former can be substantially sub-optimal to the latter, a phenomenon we call it, Simpson's bias, due to its deep connections with the classic paradox known as Simpson's reversal paradox in statistics and social sciences.

The emergence of large language models (LLMs) has significantly pushed the frontiers of program synthesis. Advancement of LLM-based program synthesis calls for a thorough evaluation of LLM-generated code. Most evaluation frameworks focus on the (functional) correctness of generated code; efficiency, as an important measure of code quality, has been overlooked in existing evaluations. In this work, we develop ENAMEL (EfficeNcy AutoMatic EvaLuator), a rigorous and high-standard benchmark for evaluating the capability of LLMs in generating efficient code. Firstly, we propose a new efficiency metric called eff@k, which generalizes the pass@k metric from correctness to efficiency and appropriately handles right-censored execution time. Furthermore, we derive an unbiased and variance-reduced estimator of eff@k via Rao--Blackwellization; we also provide a numerically stable implementation for the new estimator. Secondly, to set a high-standard for efficiency evaluation, we employ a human expert to design best algorithms and implementations as our reference solutions of efficiency, many of which are much more efficient than existing canonical solutions in HumanEval and HumanEval+. Moreover, to ensure a rigorous evaluation, we employ a human expert to curate strong test case generators to filter out wrong code and differentiate suboptimal algorithms. An extensive study across 30 popular LLMs using our benchmark ENAMEL shows that LLMs still fall short of generating expert-level efficient code. Using two subsets of our problem set, we demonstrate that such deficiency is because current LLMs struggle in designing advanced algorithms and are barely aware of implementation optimization. Our benchmark is publicly available at https://github.com/q-rz/enamel .

In this paper, we consider the problem of sleeping bandits with stochastic action sets and adversarial rewards. In this setting, in contrast to most work in bandits, the actions may not be available at all times. For instance, some products might be out of stock in item recommendation. The best existing efficient (i.e., polynomial-time) algorithms for this problem only guarantee an O(T^{2/3}) upper-bound on the regret. Yet, inefficient algorithms based on EXP4 can achieve O(T). In this paper, we provide a new computationally efficient algorithm inspired by EXP3 satisfying a regret of order O(T) when the availabilities of each action i in cA are independent. We then study the most general version of the problem where at each round available sets are generated from some unknown arbitrary distribution (i.e., without the independence assumption) and propose an efficient algorithm with O(2^K T) regret guarantee. Our theoretical results are corroborated with experimental evaluations.

Recent advancements in large reasoning models (LRMs) like DeepSeek-R1 and OpenAI o1 series have achieved notable performance enhancements on complex reasoning tasks by scaling up the generation length by Chain-of-Thought (CoT). However, an emerging issue is their inclination to produce excessively verbose reasoning processes, leading to the inefficiency problem. Existing literature on improving efficiency mainly adheres to the before-reasoning paradigms such as prompting and reasoning or fine-tuning and reasoning, but ignores the promising direction of directly encouraging the model to speak concisely by intervening during the generation of reasoning. In order to fill the blank, we propose a framework dubbed ConciseHint, which continuously encourages the reasoning model to speak concisely by injecting the textual hint (manually designed or trained on the concise data) during the token generation of the reasoning process. Besides, ConciseHint is adaptive to the complexity of the query by adaptively adjusting the hint intensity, which ensures it will not undermine model performance. Experiments on the state-of-the-art LRMs, including DeepSeek-R1 and Qwen-3 series, demonstrate that our method can effectively produce concise reasoning processes while maintaining performance well. For instance, we achieve a reduction ratio of 65\% for the reasoning length on GSM8K benchmark with Qwen-3 4B with nearly no accuracy loss.

We introduce Step 3.5 Flash, a sparse Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) model that bridges frontier-level agentic intelligence and computational efficiency. We focus on what matters most when building agents: sharp reasoning and fast, reliable execution. Step 3.5 Flash pairs a 196B-parameter foundation with 11B active parameters for efficient inference. It is optimized with interleaved 3:1 sliding-window/full attention and Multi-Token Prediction (MTP-3) to reduce the latency and cost of multi-round agentic interactions. To reach frontier-level intelligence, we design a scalable reinforcement learning framework that combines verifiable signals with preference feedback, while remaining stable under large-scale off-policy training, enabling consistent self-improvement across mathematics, code, and tool use. Step 3.5 Flash demonstrates strong performance across agent, coding, and math tasks, achieving 85.4% on IMO-AnswerBench, 86.4% on LiveCodeBench-v6 (2024.08-2025.05), 88.2% on tau2-Bench, 69.0% on BrowseComp (with context management), and 51.0% on Terminal-Bench 2.0, comparable to frontier models such as GPT-5.2 xHigh and Gemini 3.0 Pro. By redefining the efficiency frontier, Step 3.5 Flash provides a high-density foundation for deploying sophisticated agents in real-world industrial environments.

Large language models (LLMs) benefit from increased test-time compute, a phenomenon known as test-time scaling. However, reasoning-optimized models often overthink even simple problems, producing excessively verbose outputs and leading to low token efficiency. By comparing these models with equally sized instruct models, we identify two key causes of this verbosity: (1) reinforcement learning reduces the information density of forward reasoning, and (2) backward chain-of thought training encourages redundant and often unnecessary verification steps. Since LLMs cannot assess the difficulty of a given problem, they tend to apply the same cautious reasoning strategy across all tasks, resulting in inefficient overthinking. To address this, we propose CoThink, an embarrassingly simple pipeline: an instruct model first drafts a high-level solution outline; a reasoning model then works out the solution. We observe that CoThink enables dynamic adjustment of reasoning depth based on input difficulty. Evaluated with three reasoning models DAPO, DeepSeek-R1, and QwQ on three datasets GSM8K, MATH500, and AIME24, CoThink reduces total token generation by 22.3% while maintaining pass@1 accuracy within a 0.42% margin on average. With reference to the instruct model, we formally define reasoning efficiency and observe a potential reasoning efficiency scaling law in LLMs.

We develop an online learning algorithm that dramatically improves the data efficiency of reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF). Our algorithm incrementally updates reward and language models as choice data is received. The reward model is fit to the choice data, while the language model is updated by a variation of reinforce, with reinforcement signals provided by the reward model. Several features enable the efficiency gains: a small affirmative nudge added to each reinforcement signal, an epistemic neural network that models reward uncertainty, and information-directed exploration. With Gemma large language models (LLMs), our algorithm matches the performance of offline RLHF trained on 200K labels using fewer than 20K labels, representing more than a 10x gain in data efficiency. Extrapolating from our results, we expect our algorithm trained on 1M labels to match offline RLHF trained on 1B labels. This represents a 1,000x gain. To our knowledge, these are the first results to demonstrate that such large improvements are possible.

Heat pumps are essential for decarbonizing residential heating but consume substantial electrical energy, impacting operational costs and grid demand. Many systems run inefficiently due to planning flaws, operational faults, or misconfigurations. While optimizing performance requires skilled professionals, labor shortages hinder large-scale interventions. However, digital tools and improved data availability create new service opportunities for energy efficiency, predictive maintenance, and demand-side management. To support research and practical solutions, we present an open-source dataset of electricity consumption from 1,408 households with heat pumps and smart electricity meters in the canton of Zurich, Switzerland, recorded at 15-minute and daily resolutions between 2018-11-03 and 2024-03-21. The dataset includes household metadata, weather data from 8 stations, and ground truth data from 410 field visit protocols collected by energy consultants during system optimizations. Additionally, the dataset includes a Python-based data loader to facilitate seamless data processing and exploration.

Recent AI algorithms are blackbox models whose decisions are difficult to interpret. eXplainable AI (XAI) seeks to address lack of AI interpretability and trust by explaining to customers their AI decision, e.g., decision to reject a loan application. The common wisdom is that regulating AI by mandating fully transparent XAI leads to greater social welfare. This paper challenges this notion through a game theoretic model for a policy-maker who maximizes social welfare, firms in a duopoly competition that maximize profits, and heterogenous consumers. The results show that XAI regulation may be redundant. In fact, mandating fully transparent XAI may make firms and customers worse off. This reveals a trade-off between maximizing welfare and receiving explainable AI outputs. We also discuss managerial implications for policy-maker and firms.

The quantum advantage threshold determines when a quantum processing unit (QPU) is more efficient with respect to classical computing hardware in terms of algorithmic complexity. The "green" quantum advantage threshold - based on a comparison of energetic efficiency between the two - is going to play a fundamental role in the comparison between quantum and classical hardware. Indeed, its characterization would enable better decisions on energy-saving strategies, e.g. for distributing the workload in hybrid quantum-classical algorithms. Here, we show that the green quantum advantage threshold crucially depends on (i) the quality of the experimental quantum gates and (ii) the entanglement generated in the QPU. Indeed, for NISQ hardware and algorithms requiring a moderate amount of entanglement, a classical tensor network emulation can be more energy-efficient at equal final state fidelity than quantum computation. We compute the green quantum advantage threshold for a few paradigmatic examples in terms of algorithms and hardware platforms, and identify algorithms with a power-law decay of singular values of bipartitions - with power-law exponent alpha lesssim 1 - as the green quantum advantage threshold in the near future.

As large language models become integral to agentic artificial intelligence systems, their energy demands during inference may pose significant sustainability challenges. This study investigates whether deploying smaller-scale language models can reduce energy consumption without compromising responsiveness and output quality in a multi-agent, real-world environments. We conduct a comparative analysis across language models of varying scales to quantify trade-offs between efficiency and performance. Results show that smaller open-weights models can lower energy usage while preserving task quality. Building on these findings, we propose practical guidelines for sustainable artificial intelligence design, including optimal batch size configuration and computation resource allocation. These insights offer actionable strategies for developing scalable, environmentally responsible artificial intelligence systems.

We study online reinforcement learning in linear Markov decision processes with adversarial losses and bandit feedback, without prior knowledge on transitions or access to simulators. We introduce two algorithms that achieve improved regret performance compared to existing approaches. The first algorithm, although computationally inefficient, ensures a regret of mathcal{O}left(Kright), where K is the number of episodes. This is the first result with the optimal K dependence in the considered setting. The second algorithm, which is based on the policy optimization framework, guarantees a regret of mathcal{O}left(K^{3{4}} right) and is computationally efficient. Both our results significantly improve over the state-of-the-art: a computationally inefficient algorithm by Kong et al. [2023] with mathcal{O}left(K^{4{5}}+polyleft(1{lambda_{min}}right) right) regret, for some problem-dependent constant lambda_{min} that can be arbitrarily close to zero, and a computationally efficient algorithm by Sherman et al. [2023b] with mathcal{O}left(K^{6{7}} right) regret.

Sample efficiency is a crucial problem in deep reinforcement learning. Recent algorithms, such as REDQ and DroQ, found a way to improve the sample efficiency by increasing the update-to-data (UTD) ratio to 20 gradient update steps on the critic per environment sample. However, this comes at the expense of a greatly increased computational cost. To reduce this computational burden, we introduce CrossQ: A lightweight algorithm for continuous control tasks that makes careful use of Batch Normalization and removes target networks to surpass the current state-of-the-art in sample efficiency while maintaining a low UTD ratio of 1. Notably, CrossQ does not rely on advanced bias-reduction schemes used in current methods. CrossQ's contributions are threefold: (1) it matches or surpasses current state-of-the-art methods in terms of sample efficiency, (2) it substantially reduces the computational cost compared to REDQ and DroQ, (3) it is easy to implement, requiring just a few lines of code on top of SAC.

We compare the (1,lambda)-EA and the (1 + lambda)-EA on the recently introduced benchmark DisOM, which is the OneMax function with randomly planted local optima. Previous work showed that if all local optima have the same relative height, then the plus strategy never loses more than a factor O(nlog n) compared to the comma strategy. Here we show that even small random fluctuations in the heights of the local optima have a devastating effect for the plus strategy and lead to super-polynomial runtimes. On the other hand, due to their ability to escape local optima, comma strategies are unaffected by the height of the local optima and remain efficient. Our results hold for a broad class of possible distortions and show that the plus strategy, but not the comma strategy, is generally deceived by sparse unstructured fluctuations of a smooth landscape.

Conventional agent systems often struggle in open-ended environments where task distributions continuously drift and external supervision is scarce. Their reliance on static toolsets or offline training lags behind these dynamics, leaving the system's capability boundaries rigid and unknown. To address this, we propose the In-Situ Self-Evolving paradigm. This approach treats sequential task interactions as a continuous stream of experience, enabling the system to distill short-term execution feedback into long-term, reusable capabilities without access to ground-truth labels. Within this framework, we identify tool evolution as the critical pathway for capability expansion, which provides verifiable, binary feedback signals. Within this framework, we develop Yunjue Agent, a system that iteratively synthesizes, optimizes, and reuses tools to navigate emerging challenges. To optimize evolutionary efficiency, we further introduce a Parallel Batch Evolution strategy. Empirical evaluations across five diverse benchmarks under a zero-start setting demonstrate significant performance gains over proprietary baselines. Additionally, complementary warm-start evaluations confirm that the accumulated general knowledge can be seamlessly transferred to novel domains. Finally, we propose a novel metric to monitor evolution convergence, serving as a function analogous to training loss in conventional optimization. We open-source our codebase, system traces, and evolved tools to facilitate future research in resilient, self-evolving intelligence.

The development of autonomous agents for complex, long-horizon tasks is a central goal in AI. However, dominant training paradigms face a critical limitation: reinforcement learning (RL) methods that optimize solely for final task success often reinforce flawed or inefficient reasoning paths, a problem we term inefficient exploration. This leads to agents that are brittle and fail to generalize, as they learn to find solutions without learning how to reason coherently. To address this, we introduce RLVMR, a novel framework that integrates dense, process-level supervision into end-to-end RL by rewarding verifiable, meta-reasoning behaviors. RLVMR equips an agent to explicitly tag its cognitive steps, such as planning, exploration, and reflection, and provides programmatic, rule-based rewards for actions that contribute to effective problem-solving. These process-centric rewards are combined with the final outcome signal and optimized using a critic-free policy gradient method. On the challenging ALFWorld and ScienceWorld benchmarks, RLVMR achieves new state-of-the-art results, with our 7B model reaching an 83.6% success rate on the most difficult unseen task split. Our analysis confirms these gains stem from improved reasoning quality, including significant reductions in redundant actions and enhanced error recovery, leading to more robust, efficient, and interpretable agents.

Credit risk modeling relies extensively on Weight of Evidence (WoE) and Information Value (IV) for feature engineering, and Population Stability Index (PSI) for drift monitoring, yet their theoretical foundations remain disconnected. We establish a unified information-theoretic framework revealing these industry-standard metrics as instances of classical information divergences. Specifically, we prove that IV exactly equals PSI (Jeffreys divergence) computed between good and bad credit outcomes over identical bins. Through the delta method applied to WoE transformations, we derive standard errors for IV and PSI, enabling formal hypothesis testing and probabilistic fairness constraints for the first time. We formalize credit modeling's inherent performance-fairness trade-off as maximizing IV for predictive power while minimizing IV for protected attributes. Using automated binning with depth-1 XGBoost stumps, we compare three encoding strategies: logistic regression with one-hot encoding, WoE transformation, and constrained XGBoost. All methods achieve comparable predictive performance (AUC 0.82-0.84), demonstrating that principled, information-theoretic binning outweighs encoding choice. Mixed-integer programming traces Pareto-efficient solutions along the performance-fairness frontier with uncertainty quantification. This framework bridges theory and practice, providing the first rigorous statistical foundation for widely-used credit risk metrics while offering principled tools for balancing accuracy and fairness in regulated environments.

Motivated by equilibrium models of labor markets, we develop a formulation of causal strategic classification in which strategic agents can directly manipulate their outcomes. As an application, we compare employers that anticipate the strategic response of a labor force with employers that do not. We show through a combination of theory and experiment that employers with performatively optimal hiring policies improve employer reward, labor force skill level, and in some cases labor force equity. On the other hand, we demonstrate that performative employers harm labor force utility and fail to prevent discrimination in other cases.

Efficiency is a key property to foster inclusiveness and reduce environmental costs, especially in an era of LLMs. In this work, we provide a comprehensive evaluation of efficiency for MT evaluation metrics. Our approach involves replacing computation-intensive transformers with lighter alternatives and employing linear and quadratic approximations for alignment algorithms on top of LLM representations. We evaluate six (reference-free and reference-based) metrics across three MT datasets and examine 16 lightweight transformers. In addition, we look into the training efficiency of metrics like COMET by utilizing adapters. Our results indicate that (a) TinyBERT provides the optimal balance between quality and efficiency, (b) CPU speed-ups are more substantial than those on GPU; (c) WMD approximations yield no efficiency gains while reducing quality and (d) adapters enhance training efficiency (regarding backward pass speed and memory requirements) as well as, in some cases, metric quality. These findings can help to strike a balance between evaluation speed and quality, which is essential for effective NLG systems. Furthermore, our research contributes to the ongoing efforts to optimize NLG evaluation metrics with minimal impact on performance. To our knowledge, ours is the most comprehensive analysis of different aspects of efficiency for MT metrics conducted so far.

Can we learn more from data than existed in the generating process itself? Can new and useful information be constructed from merely applying deterministic transformations to existing data? Can the learnable content in data be evaluated without considering a downstream task? On these questions, Shannon information and Kolmogorov complexity come up nearly empty-handed, in part because they assume observers with unlimited computational capacity and fail to target the useful information content. In this work, we identify and exemplify three seeming paradoxes in information theory: (1) information cannot be increased by deterministic transformations; (2) information is independent of the order of data; (3) likelihood modeling is merely distribution matching. To shed light on the tension between these results and modern practice, and to quantify the value of data, we introduce epiplexity, a formalization of information capturing what computationally bounded observers can learn from data. Epiplexity captures the structural content in data while excluding time-bounded entropy, the random unpredictable content exemplified by pseudorandom number generators and chaotic dynamical systems. With these concepts, we demonstrate how information can be created with computation, how it depends on the ordering of the data, and how likelihood modeling can produce more complex programs than present in the data generating process itself. We also present practical procedures to estimate epiplexity which we show capture differences across data sources, track with downstream performance, and highlight dataset interventions that improve out-of-distribution generalization. In contrast to principles of model selection, epiplexity provides a theoretical foundation for data selection, guiding how to select, generate, or transform data for learning systems.

Many resource management problems require sequential decision-making under uncertainty, where the only uncertainty affecting the decision outcomes are exogenous variables outside the control of the decision-maker. We model these problems as Exo-MDPs (Markov Decision Processes with Exogenous Inputs) and design a class of data-efficient algorithms for them termed Hindsight Learning (HL). Our HL algorithms achieve data efficiency by leveraging a key insight: having samples of the exogenous variables, past decisions can be revisited in hindsight to infer counterfactual consequences that can accelerate policy improvements. We compare HL against classic baselines in the multi-secretary and airline revenue management problems. We also scale our algorithms to a business-critical cloud resource management problem -- allocating Virtual Machines (VMs) to physical machines, and simulate their performance with real datasets from a large public cloud provider. We find that HL algorithms outperform domain-specific heuristics, as well as state-of-the-art reinforcement learning methods.

The rapid growth of artificial intelligence (AI), particularly Large Language Models (LLMs), has raised concerns regarding its global environmental impact that extends beyond greenhouse gas emissions to include consideration of hardware fabrication and end-of-life processes. The opacity from major providers hinders companies' abilities to evaluate their AI-related environmental impacts and achieve net-zero targets. In this paper, we propose a methodology to estimate the environmental impact of a company's AI portfolio, providing actionable insights without necessitating extensive AI and Life-Cycle Assessment (LCA) expertise. Results confirm that large generative AI models consume up to 4600x more energy than traditional models. Our modelling approach, which accounts for increased AI usage, hardware computing efficiency, and changes in electricity mix in line with IPCC scenarios, forecasts AI electricity use up to 2030. Under a high adoption scenario, driven by widespread Generative AI and agents adoption associated to increasingly complex models and frameworks, AI electricity use is projected to rise by a factor of 24.4. Mitigating the environmental impact of Generative AI by 2030 requires coordinated efforts across the AI value chain. Isolated measures in hardware efficiency, model efficiency, or grid improvements alone are insufficient. We advocate for standardized environmental assessment frameworks, greater transparency from the all actors of the value chain and the introduction of a "Return on Environment" metric to align AI development with net-zero goals.

We introduce SIRI, Scaling Iterative Reinforcement Learning with Interleaved Compression, a simple yet effective RL approach for Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) that enables more efficient and accurate reasoning. Existing studies have observed repetitive thinking patterns in LRMs, and attempts to reduce them often come at the cost of performance. In this paper, we show that this trade-off can be overcome through a training regime that iteratively alternates between compressing and expanding the reasoning budget, by dynamically adjusting the maximum rollout length during training. The compression phase cuts the rollout length, forcing the model to make precise and valuable decisions within a limited context, which effectively reduces redundant tokens and increases reasoning density. The expansion phase then relaxes the length limit, providing space for the model to explore and plan in long-horizon settings. Remarkably, we find that after each compression-expansion cycle, the model's performance improves even as its output length decreases, steadily pushing it closer to the Pareto frontier in the performance-efficiency trade-off. Training on DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-1.5B, SIRI-low improves performance on AIME24 by 43.2% while reducing token usage by 46.9% after three iterations, and SIRI-high achieves the highest accuracy compared to all other methods (Figure 1). Our findings shed light on the potential of periodically oscillating the LRM's output truncation length during training to dynamically balance exploration and efficiency in reasoning, converging towards an optimal "sweet spot" between the two. Our models are publicly available.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) can elicit strong multi-step reasoning, yet it often encourages overly verbose traces. Moreover, naive length penalties in group-relative optimization can severely hurt accuracy. We attribute this failure to two structural issues: (i) Dilution of Length Baseline, where incorrect responses (with zero length reward) depress the group baseline and over-penalize correct solutions; and (ii) Difficulty-Penalty Mismatch, where a static penalty cannot adapt to problem difficulty, suppressing necessary reasoning on hard instances while leaving redundancy on easy ones. We propose Dynamic Decoupled Conditional Advantage (DDCA) to decouple efficiency optimization from correctness. DDCA computes length advantages conditionally within the correct-response cluster to eliminate baseline dilution, and dynamically scales the penalty strength using the group pass rate as a proxy for difficulty. Experiments on GSM8K, MATH500, AMC23, and AIME25 show that DDCA consistently improves the efficiency--accuracy trade-off relative to adaptive baselines, reducing generated tokens by approximately 60% on simpler tasks (e.g., GSM8K) versus over 20% on harder benchmarks (e.g., AIME25), thereby maintaining or improving accuracy. Code is available at https://github.com/alphadl/DDCA.

This article introduces Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) with Distribution-Valued Outcomes (R3D), extending the standard RDD framework to settings where the outcome is a distribution rather than a scalar. Such settings arise when treatment is assigned at a higher level of aggregation than the outcome-for example, when a subsidy is allocated based on a firm-level revenue cutoff while the outcome of interest is the distribution of employee wages within the firm. Since standard RDD methods cannot accommodate such two-level randomness, I propose a novel approach based on random distributions. The target estimand is a "local average quantile treatment effect", which averages across random quantiles. To estimate this target, I introduce two related approaches: one that extends local polynomial regression to random quantiles and another based on local Fr\'echet regression, a form of functional regression. For both estimators, I establish asymptotic normality and develop uniform, debiased confidence bands together with a data-driven bandwidth selection procedure. Simulations validate these theoretical properties and show existing methods to be biased and inconsistent in this setting. I then apply the proposed methods to study the effects of gubernatorial party control on within-state income distributions in the US, using a close-election design. The results suggest a classic equality-efficiency tradeoff under Democratic governorship, driven by reductions in income at the top of the distribution.

The success of Deepseek-R1 has drawn the LLM community's attention to reinforcement learning (RL) methods like GRPO. However, such rule-based 0/1 outcome reward methods lack the capability to regulate the intermediate reasoning processes during chain-of-thought (CoT) generation, leading to severe overthinking phenomena. In response, recent studies have designed reward functions to reinforce models' behaviors in producing shorter yet correct completions. Nevertheless, we observe that these length-penalty reward functions exacerbate RL training instability: as the completion length decreases, model accuracy abruptly collapses, often occurring early in training. To address this issue, we propose a simple yet effective solution GRPO-lambda, an efficient and stabilized variant of GRPO, which dynamically adjusts the reward strategy by monitoring the correctness ratio among completions within each query-sampled group. A low correctness ratio indicates the need to avoid length penalty that compromises CoT quality, triggering a switch to length-agnostic 0/1 rewards that prioritize reasoning capability. A high ratio maintains length penalties to boost efficiency. Experimental results show that our approach avoids training instability caused by length penalty while maintaining the optimal accuracy-efficiency trade-off. On the GSM8K, GPQA, MATH-500, AMC 2023, and AIME 2024 benchmarks, it improves average accuracy by 1.48% while reducing CoT sequence length by 47.3%.

We introduce the Agent GPA (Goal-Plan-Action) framework: an evaluation paradigm based on an agent's operational loop of setting goals, devising plans, and executing actions. The framework includes five evaluation metrics: Goal Fulfillment, Logical Consistency, Execution Efficiency, Plan Quality, and Plan Adherence. Logical Consistency checks that an agent's actions are consistent with its prior actions. Execution Efficiency checks whether the agent executes in the most efficient way to achieve its goal. Plan Quality checks whether an agent's plans are aligned with its goals; Plan Adherence checks if an agent's actions are aligned with its plan; and Goal Fulfillment checks that agent's final outcomes match the stated goals. Our experimental results on two benchmark datasets - the public TRAIL/GAIA dataset and an internal dataset for a production-grade data agent - show that this framework (a) provides a systematic way to cover a broad range of agent failures, including all agent errors on the TRAIL/GAIA benchmark dataset; (b) supports LLM-judges that exhibit strong agreement with human annotation, covering 80% to over 95% errors; and (c) localizes errors with 86% agreement to enable targeted improvement of agent performance.

Existing benchmarks for frontier models often test specialized, ``PhD-level'' knowledge that is difficult for non-experts to grasp. In contrast, we present a benchmark based on the NPR Sunday Puzzle Challenge that requires only general knowledge. Our benchmark is challenging for both humans and models, however correct solutions are easy to verify, and models' mistakes are easy to spot. Our work reveals capability gaps that are not evident in existing benchmarks: OpenAI o1 significantly outperforms other reasoning models that are on par on benchmarks that test specialized knowledge. Furthermore, our analysis of reasoning outputs uncovers new kinds of failures. DeepSeek R1, for instance, often concedes with ``I give up'' before providing an answer that it knows is wrong. R1 can also be remarkably ``uncertain'' in its output and in rare cases, it does not ``finish thinking,'' which suggests the need for an inference-time technique to ``wrap up'' before the context window limit is reached. We also quantify the effectiveness of reasoning longer with R1 and Gemini Thinking to identify the point beyond which more reasoning is unlikely to improve accuracy on our benchmark.